CHURCHILL DOWNS
PRE-SCRATCHES
5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Crazily competitive, demanding some value..
Best Value: #1 Feeling Beachy 12-1
Next Best: #6 My Brazilian Girl 7-2
Exotics Use: #8 High Shot 4-1
Super Add: #4 Just a Coed 12-1
6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (Derby City 6, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Most Likely: #5 Banishing 7-2
Next Best: #1 Harrodsburg 5-2
Best Value: #2 Banjo Chris 9-2
Exotics Use: #9 Wico 4-1
7th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Most Likely: #7 Sea Vista 5-2
Best Value: #5 Restless Renegade 12-1
Next Best: #10 Mo Quality 3-1
Exotics Use: #9 Tomasello 12-1
8th: Chilukki (G3), F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Two Sharp a logical and worthy favorite and the one to catch, but hardly has to win. Oeuvre a danger drawing outside and keeping her in sight under Loveberry..
Best Value: #7 Oeuvre 6-1
Next Best: #4 Two Sharp 2-1
Exotics Use: #6 Positano Sunset 10-1
Super Add: #2 Pigalle 9-2
P4 Grid:
5: 1-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 1-5 (A), 2-9 (B), – (C)
7: 5-7 (A), 9-10 (B), – (C)
8: 4-7 (A), – (B), 2-6 (C)
Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x2 = 64 x .50 = $32
All A’s: 2x2x2x2 = 16 x .50 = $8
Backup (AAAC): 2x2x2x2 = 16 x .50 = $8 (2-6 in 8th)
9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Hi-5)
Best Value: #6 Trust Issues 8-1
Next Best: #11 Agoo 4-1
Exotics Use: #9 Banned for Life 7-2
Super Add: #4 Colorado Cruiser 10-1
10th: Commonwealth (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T (DD, Hi-5)
Been waiting for Lagynos to take a step forward and like the other short prices here, he’ll need to to beat the 2 Ontario breds..
Most Likely: #1 My Boy Prince 6-1
Best Value: #5 Piper’s Factor 20-1
Next Best: #7 Lagynos 4-1
Exotics Use: #9 Evade 7-2
11th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f (Hi-5)
Most Likely: #7 Golden Gamble 7-2
Next Best: #3 Girl Math 2-1
Exotics Use: #5 Calamity 4-1
Super Add: #1 Ceebee 20-1
P5 Grid:
7: 7 (A), 5 (B), – (C)
8: 4-6-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 6-11 (A), 4-9 (B), – (C)
10: 1-5 (A), – (B), 7-9 (C)
11: 3-5-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 1x3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAACA): 1x3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (7-9 in 10th)
P4 Grid:
8: 4-6-7 (A), (B), – (C)
9: 6-11 (A), 4-9 (B), – (C)
10: 1-5 (A), – (B), 7-9 (C)
11: 3-5-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAACA): 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (7-9 in 10th)
FAIR GROUNDS
PRE-SCRATCHES
6th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)
Murky pace picture..
Most Likely: #6 Strike When Ready 5-1
Best Value: #11 Trail Ridge Road 10-1
Next Best: #3 Gavea 3-1
Exotics Use: #9 Inventing 12-1
7th: Andrew Ney Memorial-LA, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)
Faves aren’t any great shakes..
Most Likely: #8 Hi Yah 6-1
Best Value: #5 Mike J 10-1
Next Best: #6 Bron and Brow 3-1
Exotics Use: #7 Not On Herb 9-2
8th: Jacob V. Morreale Memorial-LA, 3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD)
Wildly competitive group. Note horses returning FG that have dirtied up form from the summer-fall seasons at DeD, LaD & EvD. Behemah Star for instance..
Best Value: #7 Blue Cheese 6-1
Next Best: #3 Behemah Star 4-1
Exotics Use: #10 Highland Creek 5-1
Super Add: #6 Allnight Moonlight 7-2
9th: OC/N3X, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD)
Only pace players look like Create Trouble and Ocean City..
Most Likely: #7 Create Trouble 9-2
Best Value: #8 Verstappen10-1
Next Best: #!0 Gray’s Fable 7-2
Exotics Use: #9 Ocean City 6-1
10th: John Valene Memorial-LA, F&M-3+, 1m-70y
Most Likely: #3 Free Like a Girl 3-5
Best Value: #9 Wonderrand 15-1
Next Best: #8 Clearly a Test 5-1
Exotics Use: #5 Olivia G 30-1
P5 Grid:
6: 3-6-11 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 5-6-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 3-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 7-8-10 (A), 3-5-9 (B), – (C)
10: 3 (A), – (B), 9 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x6x1 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A’s: 3x3x2x3x1 = 54 x .50 = $27
Backup (AAAAC): 3x3x2x3x1 = 54 x .50 = $27 (9 in 10th)
P4 Grid:
7: 5-6-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 3-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 7-8-10 (A), 3-5-9 (B), – (C)
10: 3 (A), – (B), 9 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x2x6x1 = $36
All A’s: 3x2x3x1 = $18
Backup (AAAAC): 3x2x3x1 = 18 x .50 = $9 (9 in 10th)
Let’s get lucky!
Steve
