CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 151ST KENTUCKY DERBY DAY
POST SCRATCHES
1st: MSW, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Best Value: #12 Chillax 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Cromwell 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Sturdy 6-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Fountain Lake 12-1 WON ($19.32)
2nd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Best Value: #9 Desert Rhapsody 12-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Generous Lover 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Tapit Quick 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Lemon Muffin 5-1 WON ($12.04)
3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Was at Santa Anita for Goal Oriented‘s MDN-breaker which stunned Baffert who never expected him to win at 6f. May foal may be his best 3yo. That said, and while I expect him to win here, Tiz Secure and stablemate Team Player turned in an eye-popping work Sunday (:59.3 with huge gallop-outs) and is maybe the main danger..
Most Likely: #5 GOAL ORIENTED 4-1 WON ($4.62)
Next Best: #9 Tiz Secure 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #11 Sorcerer’s Silver 8-1 DNF-Pulled Up
Exotics Use: #2 Bracket Buster 6-1 7th
4th: Knicks Go-R, 4+, 1m (All Dirt STK P5, P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Most Likely: #9 Liberal Arts 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #13 New King 12-1 10th
Next Best: #3 Accretive 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Ashcroft 20-1 6th
All Dirt STK P5 Grid:
4: 9-13 (A), 1-3-14 (B), – (C)
6: 5-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 7-10-11 (A), 2-3 (B), – (C)
10: 2-6-8-12 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 8 (A), – (B), 9-18-21 (C)
Simple (A+B): 5x2x5x4x1 = 200 x .50 = $100
All A’s: 2x2x3x4x1 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AAAAC): 2x2x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 (9-18-21 in 12th)
5th: Distaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Most Likely: #7 Tax Implications 5-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Five Towns 10-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Sacred Wish 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Movin On Up 5-1 3rd
P5 Grid:
1: 2-12 (A), 3-4 (B), – (C)
2: 5-9-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
3: 5 (A), – (B), 9 (C)
4: 9-13 (A), 1-3 (B), – (C)
5: 5-6-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x3x1x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACAA): 2x3x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (9 in 3rd)
P4 Grid:
2: 5-9-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
3: 5 (A), 9 (B), – (C)
4: 9-13 (A), 1-3 (B), 12-14 (C)
5: 2-5-6-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 3x1x2x4 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AACAA): 3x1x2x4 = 24 x .50 = $12 (1-14 in 4th)
6th: Pat Day Mile (G2), 3yo, 1m ($3 3yo P3, P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Most Likely: #6 Gaming 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Gate to Wire 6-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Smoken Wicked 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Madaket Road 2-1 [color=”red”]2nd[/COLOR
7th: Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G2), 3+, 5.5f-T (.20 Derby City 6, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Most Likely: #7 Think Big 4-1 WON ($6.84)
Best Value: #6 Run Carson 6-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Arrest Me Red 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Eamonn 12-1 10th
P5 Grid:
3: 5 (A), 9 (B), – (C)
4: 9-13 (A), 1-3 (B), 12-14 (C)
5: 2-5-6-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 5-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 6-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x2x2 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A’s: 1x2x4x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backup (ACAAA): 1x2x4x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16 (12-14 in 4th)
P4 Grid:
4: 9-13 (A), 1-3 (B), 12-14 (C)
5: 2-5-6-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 5-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 6-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x2x2 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A’s: 1x2x4x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backup (ACAAA): 1x2x4x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16 (12-14 in 4th)
8th: Churchill Downs (G1), 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Best Value: #10 Nysos 4-1 DH-2nd
Next Best: #7 Mindframe 3-1 WON ($9.08)
Exotics Use: #11 Mullikin 7-2 5th
Super Add: #2 Banishing 5-1 DH-2nd
9th: American Turf (G1), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Most Likely: #5 TEST SCORE 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Scipio 12-1 7th
Best Value: #13 Maui Strong 30-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Zulu Kingdom 4-1 WON ($6.34)
P5 Grid:
5: 5-7 (A), 2-6 (B), – (C)
6: 5-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 6-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 2-3-7-10-11 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 5 (A), 2 (B), 7-13 (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x5x2 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A’s: 2x2x2x5x1 = 40 x .50 = $20
Backup (AAAAC): 2x2x2x5x2 = 80 x .50 = $40 (7-13 in 9th)
P4 Grid:
6: 5-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 6-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 2-3-7-10-11 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 2-5 (A), 7-13 (B), 3-4 (C)
Simple (A+B): 2x2x5x4 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A’s: 2x2x5x2 = 40 x .50 = $20
Backup (AAAC): 2x2x5x2 = 40 x .50 = $20 (3-4 in 9th)
10th: Derby City Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Most Likely: #2 Kopion 8-1 WON ($7.48)
Best Value: #12 Hope Road 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Ways and Means 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Vahva 6-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Mystic Lake 8-1 9th
11th: Old Forester Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Best Value: #3 Highway Robber 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Running Bee 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Integration 4-1 –
Super Add: #10 Spirit of St. Louis 9-2 WON ($)
12th: Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Hi-5)
Journalism has been giving off Barbaro vibes leading into today and the only thing that stands in his way is an unforeseen traffic issue or circumstance that can’t be factored in from straightforward handicapping. Overnight odds are more than acceptable, even for the “I don’t bet favorites in the Derby” crowd. There are several major players to use with the McCarthy charge as laid out below, and if you’re interested in a speed horse getting away on the front end, Citizen Bull and East Avenue are the obvious (and legitimate) candidates. Happy Derby! Enjoy it and get lucky..
Most Likely: #8 JOURNALISM 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Burnham Square 12-1 6th
Next Best: #21 Baeza 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #18 Sovereignty 5-1 WON ($17.96)
Super Add: #13 Publisher 30-1 14th
Hi-5 Play: #11 Flying Mohawk 30-1 18th
$100 Oaks/Derby DBL Grid:
FRI 11: 7-11 (A), – (B), 2-3-6-14 (C)
SAT 12: 8 (A), – (B), – (C)
All A’s: 2×1 = 2 x $40 = $80
Backup (C-A): 4×1 = 4 x $5 = $20
$100 Oaks/Turf Classic/Derby P3 Grid:
FRI 11: 7-11 (A), – (B), – (C)
SAT 11: 1-3-4-7-8-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
SAT 12: 8 (A), – (B), – (C)
All A’s: 2x6x1 = 12 x $8 = $96
$3 3yo P3 Grid:
6: ALL (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 2-5 (A), 3-7-13 (B), – (C)
12: 8 (A), – (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 9x5x1 = 9x5x1 = 45 x $3 = $135
All A’s: 9x2x1 = 18 x $3 = $54
P5 Grid:
8: 7-10-11 (A), 2-3 (B), – (C)
9: 2-5 (A), 3-7-13 (B), – (C)
10: 2-8-12 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 3-7 (A), 1-10 (B), – (C)
12: 8 (A), – (B), 9-18-21 (C)
Simple (A+B): 5x5x3x4x1 = 300 x .50 = $150
All A’s: 3x2x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAAAC): 3x2x3x2x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
P5 Grid:
9: 2-5 (A), 3-7-13 (B), – (C)
10: 2-8-12 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 3-7 (A), 1-10 (B), – (C)
12: 8-9 (A), – (B), 1-7-12-18-21 (C)
Simple (A+B): 5x3x4x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 2x3x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AAAC): 2x3x2x5 = 60 x .50 = $30 (1-7-12-18-21 in 12th)
13th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 6.5f (DD, Hi-5)
Best Value: #7 Multiverse 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #14 Big Truzz 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Romanesque 5-1 8th
Super Add: #11 Patch Adams 5-2 WON ($5.12)
14th: MSW, 3+, 7f (Hi-5)
Best Value: #13 Lambo 5-1 7th
Next Best: #14 Mainstream 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Pursuitneversleeps 3-1 WON ($4.10)
Super Add: #5 Advanced Spirit 5-1 3rd
P5 Grid:
10: 2-8-12 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 3-7 (A), 1-10 (B), – (C)
12: 8-9 (A), 18-21 (B), 1-7-12 (C)
13: 7-14 (A), – (B), – (C)
14: 13-14 (A), – (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x2x2 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A’s: 3x2x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AACAA): 3x2x3x2x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (1-7-12 in 12th)
P4 Grid:
11: 3-7 (A), 1-10 (B), – (C)
12: 8-9-18-21 (A), 11-13 (B), 1-3-7-12 (C)
13: 7-14 (A), – (B), – (C)
14: 13-14 (A), – (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x6x2x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x4x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backup (ACAA): 2x4x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16 (1-3-7-12 in 12th)
