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If Horses Were Wishes by John Perrott
If Horses Were Wishes by John Perrott
If Horses Were Wishes by John Perrott
 

5/4: Churchill Downs ~ Derby Day

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ DERBY DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Share the Upside 5-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Once On Whiskey 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Crosswalk 2-1 WON ($7.80)
Super Add: #1 Private Eye 12-1 8th

2nd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

This is bad ALW bunch and there’s ZERO speed. Whomever takes control can wire..

Most Likely: #1 Gray Sky 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Big Gray Rocket 5-1 WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #2 Summer Luck 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Gizmo Jones 20-1 7th

3rd: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Irish Freedom 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Hollywood Handsome 3-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Langdarma 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Laddie Boy 30-1 4th

4th: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Unbridled Rebel 3-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Ding Dong Ditch 3-1 6th
Best Value: #10 Zero Gravity 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #12 Snap Hook 6-1 12th

5th: Opt CLM/$100k, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Dazzling Gem 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Petrov 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Behavioral Bias 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Siem Riep 9-2 5th

P4 Grid:

2: 1-2-6 (A), 3-5-7 (B), 4-8-9 (C)
3: 3-4-6 (A), – (B), 5-8-10 (C)
4: 3-4 (A), – (B), 8-10-12 (C)
5: 5-9 (A), 1-6 (B), 2-3-7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

6th: 32nd Humana Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Finley’sluckycharm 7-2 4th
Best Value: #3 Ivy Bell 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 American Gal 7-2 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Lewis Bay 3-1 3rd

7th: 33rd Distaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Madame Stripes 12-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Dream Awhile 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Proctor’s Ledge 12-1 WON ($15.60)
Super Add: #11 La Coronel 3-1 6th

P5 Grid:

3: 4-6 (A), 3 (B), 5-8-10 (C)
4: 3-4 (A), – (B), 8-10-12 (C)
5: 5-9 (A), – (B), 1-6 (C)
6: 1-3-8 (A), – (B), 4-5 (C)
7: 3-8 (A), 2-6-11 (B), 1-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x3x5 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A’s: 2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

8th: 84th Churchill Downs (G2), 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Imperial Hint 9-5 6th
Next Best: #10 Awesome Slew 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Outplay 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Whitmore 6-1 4th

P4 Grid:

5: 5-9 (A), 1-6 (B), (C)
6: 1-3-8 (A), – (B), 4-5 (C)
7: 3-6-8-11 (A), 1-2-7-9 (B), 4-5 (C)
8: 3 (A), – (B), 1-5-7-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x8x1 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x3x4x1 = $24 ($12 for .50)

9th: 27th American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T ()P4, P3, DD

Most Likely: #6 RIVER BOYNE 5-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Arawak 20-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Threeandfourpence 4-1 11th
Exotics Use: #2 Inscom 15-1 9th

10th: 94th Pat Day Mile (G3), 3yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Mask 4-1 8th
Next Best: #12 Restoring Hope 9-2 12th
Best Value: #5 Mississippi 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Madison’s Luna 5-1 10th

11th: 32nd Old Forester Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Beach Patrol 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Kurilov 6-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Deauville Late SCR
Exotics Use: #5 Channel Maker 10-1 5th

12th: 144th Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Always a highlight of the broadcast year, I hope everyone enjoyed ATR Derby coverage and got information that will make for a profitable weekend. Weather complications are going to interfere with the day, but Churchill’s main track surface can take a punch like few others, so let’s hope for conditions that are as fair as possible. Have no great additional insight to add to the hours of conversation on air and the Xpressbet Wager Guide entry. I started with Justify-Good Magic-Bolt d’Oro-Flameaway in the Guide and will adjust only slightly off that. Justify has the look of a special horse and should get every opportunity to be successful when it comes to the trip. Good Magic has done everything Chad Brown suggested since the Fountain of Youth comebacker and has looked terrific preparing for today. He and Justify are the 2 runners I think are the most likely winners. Hofburg moved up on the radar with he and Good Magic having had the best 2 weeks of training at the Downs. Bolt d’Oro has taken a lap around the track to warm up daily and has slipped in terms of win candidacy. I’m going to defensively use Mendelssohn and Audible as players with authentic credentials. Particularly appealing late runners that I’ll use for exotics are Solomini, Lone Sailor, Combatant and Free Drop Billy. Enjoy Derby!

Most Likely: #7 Justify 3-1 WON ($7.80)
Next Best: #6 Good Magic 12-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Hofburg 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #11 Bolt d’Oro 8-1 12th
Super Add: #17 Solomini 30-1 10th

BASE .50 TRI: 7 with 5-6-9-11-14 with 2-4-5-6-8-9-10-11-12-14-17-18-20 (1x5x12 = 60 x .50 = $30) $0.50 Trifecta (7-6-5) Paid $70.70

Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby P3 Grid:

KO: 10 (A), 2-5 (B), 13-14 (C)
TC: 1-3-9-10 (A), – (B), 4-5-6-7 (C)
KD: 7 (A), 6-14 (B), 5-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3 = $36
All A’s: 1x4x1 = 4 x $5 = $20

$1 Pick Three (OAK/FRSTR/DBY-14-9-7) Paid $50.87 (C-A-A)

Oaks-Derby DBL:

KO: 2-5-10 (A), 13-14 (B), 7-11 (C)
KD: 7 (A), 6-14 (B), 5-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5×3 = 15 x $2 = $30
All A’s: 3×1 = 3 x $10 = $30

$2 Daily Double (OAKS/DERBY-14-7) Paid $16.60

P5 Grid:

8: 3 (A), – (B), 1-5-7-10 (C)
9: 6 (A), – (B), 3-8 (C)
10: 5-8-12 (A), 1-7 (B), 6-9-11 (C)
11: 1-3-10 (A), 5-7 (B), 4-6 (C)
12: 6-7 (A), 5-14 (B), 9-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x1x5x5x4 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A’s: 1x1x3x3x2 = $18

P4 Grid:

9: 6 (A), – (B), 1-3-7-8 (C)
10: 5-8-12 (A), 1-7 (B), 6-9-11 (C)
11: 1-3-10 (A), 5-7 (B), 4-6 (C)
12: 5-6-7-14 (A), – (B), 9-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x5x4 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A’s: 1x3x3x4 = 36 x .50 = $18

13th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Lionite 7-2 7th
Next Best: #9 Regal Quality 4-1 8th
Best Value: #11 King Zachary 5-1 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Determinant 6-1 2nd

14th: MSW, 3+, 1m

Most Likely: #4 Corot 4-1 8th
Best Value: #5 Locomotion 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Limitation 5-2 WON ($8.40)
Exotics Use: #7 Mo Zone 8-1 6th

P5 Grid:

10: 5-8-12 (A), – (B), 1-7 (C)
11: 1-3-10 (A), – (B), 5-7 (C)
12: 7 (A), – (B), 5-6-14 (C)
13: 5-9 (A), 6-11 (B), 1-7 (C)
14: 4-5 (A), 6-7 (B), 1-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x1x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x3x1x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

11: 1-3-10 (A), 5-7 (B), 4-6 (C)
12: 6-7 (A), – (B), 5-14 (C)
13: 5-9 (A), 6-11 (B), 1-7 (C)
14: 4-5 (A), 6-7 (B), 1-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x4x4 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A’s: 3x2x2x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)

If Horses Were Wishes by John Perrott
If Horses Were Wishes by John Perrott
If Horses Were Wishes by John Perrott