FAIR GROUNDS
POST-SCRATCHES
4th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD)
2nd timer Merlazza from Cox will take some beating here. Ornately (Asmussen) and New Beat (Norm Casse) are the firsters that merit looks and Kenneally appears sneaky with Saratoga first out returnee My Sweet Summer (Accelerate) SCR’D who is a half to famously overbet Derby runner (and 3x stake winner) My Boy Jack..
Most Likely: #2 Merlazza 5-2
Next Best: #4 Ornately 5-1
Best Value: #10 New Beat 12-1
Exotics Use: #5 Corsini 12-1
5th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)
Looks like Cox over Asmussen again here with Bishops Bay coming in hot for debut with Jackie’s Warrior sibling Ocean City (American Pharoah) owning a two turn look. Little Al introduces Bettera whose dam was a quick, sprinty stake winner..
Most Likely: #5 Bishops Bay 3-1
Best Value: #7 Bettera 6-1
Next Best: #2 Ocean City 5-1
Exotics Use: #6 Quaternion 6-1
6th: Al Stall Memorial, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)
Best Value: #7 Trail Ridge Road 6-1
Next Best: #4 My Philly Twirl 5-1
Exotics Use: #6 Soft Touch 6-1
Super Add: #2 Clara Peters 4-1
7th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)
Best Value: #6 Gametime Gladiator 5-1
Next Best: #7 Woodythebidspotter 7-2
Best Value: #9 Kigali 8-1
Exotics Use: #1 (POE) Baseline Beater 9-2
8th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)
Has the makings of an important ALW with Banishing (5-2) getting delayed seasonal debut while running into Asmussen debut sparkler First Defender (3-1). Contention runs deep here with Cherie offering rough trip winner Cagliostro (8-1) and Cox sending capable Tapit Shoes (9-2)..
Most Likely: #5 First Defender 3-1
Next Best: #6 Banishing 5-2
Best Value: #1 Cagliostro 8-1
Exotics Use: #4 Tapit Shoes 9-2
P5 Grid:
4: 2 (A), – (B), – (C)
5: 5 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 4-6-7 (A), 2-3-5 (B), 1-8 (C)
7: 6-7 (A), 1-9 (B), – (C)
8: 5-6 (A), 1-4 (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 1x1x6x4x4 = $96 ($48 for .50)
All A’s: 1x1x3x2x2 = $12 ($6 for .50)
Backup: 1x1x2x2x2 = $8 ($4 for .50)
P4 Grid:
5: 5 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 4-6-7 (A), 2-3-5 (B), 1-8 (C)
7: 6-7 (A), 1-9 (B), – (C)
8: 5-6 (A), 1-4 (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 1x6x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 1x3x2x2 = $12 ($6 for .50)
Backup: 1x1x2x2x2 = $8 ($4 for .50)
9th: Col. Power, 4+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)
Sprinters always the most likely to run top effort fresh and there are 5 coming into this off breaks. Angaston has run just once since August ’21, but has been sitting on go since early January. Both Stalls (Pyron/Evan Sing) look eligible and All in Sync appears to have plenty of upside..
Most Likely: #7 Angaston 9-2
Next Best: #9 Evan Sing 5-1
Best Value: #4 Pyron 10-1
Exotics Use: #3 All in Sync 9-2
10th: Mineshaft (G3), 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)
Bret Calhoun holds the key to this with both Mr. Wireless & Run Classic offering chances from on and near the pace. As an aside, between this field and the Razorback, the Handicap Division isn’t so ‘desperate and dateless’ (for those that remember the great WLW phone-in mating game)..
Most Likely: #8 Mr. Wireless 5-1
Best Value: #2 Run Classic 10-1
Next Best: #1 Hoist the Gold 6-1
Exotics Use: #5 Big Blue Line 8-1
P4 Grid:
7: 6-7 (A), 1-9 (B), – (C)
8: 5-6 (A), – (B), 1-4 (C)
9: 3-4-7-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 2-8 (A), 1-5 (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x4 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A’s: 2x2x4x2 = 32 x .50 = $16
11th: Fair Grounds (G3), 4+, 9f-T (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #2 Two Emmys 3-1
Best Value: #3 Calvary Charge 6-1
Next Best: #4 Gentle Soul 7-2
Exotics Use: #8 Bay Street Money 6-1
12th: Rachel Alexandra (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD)
All indications are that Hoosier Philly is ready to go and this looks like a good quality check for Amoss charge in seasonal debut with established Chop Chop and nice Vahva who was compromised last time..
Most Likely: #2 Hoosier Philly 6-5
Best Value: #1 Vahva 8-1
Next Best: #4 Chop Chop 8-5
Exotics Use: #5 Pretty Mischievous 9-2
13th: Risen Star (G3), 3yo, 9f
Increase of KY Derby points seems to be responsible for 14 turning up here and an intriguing group it is. Harlocap is the first Baffert trainee to be transferred and note the stiff 6f (1:11.4) drill he received prior to shipping. Has made steady progress in first 3 starts, should be prominent throughout under Johnny and may emulate Epicenter effort in this a year ago. Tapit’s Conquest price likely to be cut in half given his status as the mojo horse. Desormeaux always seems to make his presence felt in this series and Single Ruler gets cozy draw for a change and can juice the exotics, or more. Crupi is edging closer to a win with latest being a significant improvement that brings him here measuring fastest on some metrics including Thoro-Graph. Two Phil’s was my Lecomte play and want to give him another chance, though recent drill was noted as backwards (fast early, slow late) by top morning man McGoey. Don’t be afraid to take a swing here with many, many viable options and combos..
Most Likely: #5 Harlocap 8-1
Next Best: #8 Tapit’s Conquest 6-1
Best Value: #2 Single Ruler 30-1
Exotics Use: #12 Crupi 15-1
Super Add: #10 Two Phil’s 8-1
P5 Grid:
9: 3-4-7-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 2-8 (A), – (B), 1-5 (C)
11: 2-3-4 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 2 (A), – (B), – (C)
13: 5-8 (A), 2-10-12-13 (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 4x2x3x1x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup: 4x2x3x1x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (1-5 in 10th)
P4 Grid:
10: 2-8 (A), 1-5 (B), – (C)
11: 2-3-4 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 2 (A), – (B), – (C)
13: 2-5-8-12 (A), 10-13 (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x3x1x6 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 2x3x1x4 = 24 x .50 = $12
Good luck!
Steve
