BELMONT PARK ~ 154TH BELMONT STAKES DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Win for Gold 2-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Tap’n de Bank 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 My Last Mission 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Unique Unions 3-1 3rd

2nd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Three Jokers 4-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Uncle Moonlight 10-1 WON ($21.40)
Next Best: #1e Pletcher entry 2-1 3rd/8th
Exotics Use: #8 Higher Quality 9-2 7th

3rd: Acorn (G1), 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Matareya 6-5 WON ($2.60)
Next Best: #5 Echo Zulu Gate SCR
Exotics Use: #1 Dream Lith 15-1 3rd

4th: Just a Game (G1), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, $3 Turf P3, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Regal Glory 6-5 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #3 Speak of the Devil 1-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Leggs Galore 15-1 4th

5th: Brooklyn (G2), 4+, 12f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 First Constitution 9-2 5th
Next Best: #1 Lone Rock 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Warrant 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Fearless 3-1 WON ($9.30)

P5 Grid:

1: 3-6-7 (A), 4-8 (B), – (C)
2: 1-2-6 (A), – (B), 3-8 (C)
3: 4 (A), – (B), 5/SCR (C)
4: 2-3 (A), – (B), – (C)
5: 1-5 (A), 3-7 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x3x1x2x4 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 3x3x1x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x2x1x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (3-8 in 2nd); 3x3x1x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (5 in 3rd)

P4 Grid:

2: 1-2-6 (A), – (B), 3-8 (C)
3: 4 (A), 5/SCR (B), – (C)
4: 2-3 (A), – (B), – (C)
5: 1-5 (A), 2-3-7 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x5 = $60 ($30 for .50)
All A’s: 3x1x2x2 = $12 ($6 for .50)
Backup: 2x1x2x2 = $8 ($4 for .50)

$1 Pick 4 (2/4,5/2/7) $113.50 ($56.87 for .50)

6th: Woody Stephens (G1), 3yo, 7f ($1 P6, P3, DD)

Jack Christopher the overwhelmingly likely winner here, but the other 5 are excellent 3yo’s that are going to win a number of stakes going forward. We know what Pappacap and Chasing Time can do now that they’ve turned back, so today the one to watch is Morello coming back to one turn. Pletcher pair Wit and Provocateur are rock solid sprint players already. In other words,there’s more going on here than the $3.00 favorite beating tomato cans..

Most Likely: #1 Jack Christopher 1-2 WON ($2.70)
Next Best: #4 Morello 9-2 7th
Best Value: #2 Pappacap 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Wit 7-2 4th

7th: Ogden Phipps (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

The AVERAGE record of this quintet is 16/8-3-2 for $1.7MM each..

Most Likely: #1 Letruska 6-5 5th
Next Best: #4 Clairiere 3-1 WON ($11.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Search Results 9-2 3rd

P4 Grid:

4: 2 (A), – (B), – (C)
5: 1-5 (A), 2-3-7 (B), – (C)
6: 1 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 1-4 (A), – (B), 2-3-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x1x2 = 10 x $5 = $50
All A’s: 1x2x1x2 = 4 x $5 = $20
Backup (A-A-A-C): 2 / 1-5 / 1 / 2-3-5 (1x2x1x3 = 6 x $3 = $18)

$5.00 Pick 4 (2/7/1/4) Paid $335.00

Intercontinental/Phipps DBL:

FRI 11: 1-4-10-13 (A), 5-9 (B), 7-12 (C)
SAT 7: 1-4 (A), – (B), 3-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6×2 = 12 x $4 = $48
All A’s: 4×2 = 8 x $2 = $16
Backup: 7-12 w/ 1-4 (2×2 = 4 x $2 = $8); 1-4-10-13 w/ 3-5 (4×2 = 8 x $2 = $16)

$2 DBL (7/4) Paid $65.50

8th: Jaipur (G1), 4+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Casa Creed 9-2 WON ($10.40)
Best Value: #1 Change of Control 15-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Scuttlebuzz 6-1 10th
Exotics Use: #12 Gear Jockey 6-1 11th

True North/Jaipur DBL:

FRI 9: 3 (A), – (B), 4-6 (C)
SAT 8: 1-4-5-8-12 (A), – (B), 7-11-13 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1×5 = 5 x $8 = $40
Backup: 2×5 = 10 x $2 = $20; 1×3 = 3 x $4 = $12

$1 DBL (3/4) $8.60 x 8 = $68.80

9th: Metropolitan H. (G1), 3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Flightline 3-5 WON ($2.90)
Best Value: #4 Happy Saver 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Speaker’s Corner 8-5 3rd

10th: Manhattan (G1), 4+, 10f-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Santin 7-2 6th
Best Value: #10 Channel Maker 8-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Adhamo 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Gufo 3-1 3rd

$3 Turf P3 Grid:

4: 2 (A), – (B), 3 (C)
8: 1-4-8 (A), 5-12-13 (B), – (C)
10: 9-10 (A), 4 (B), 2-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x6x3 = 18 x $3 = $54
All A’s: 1x3x2 = 6 x $3 = $18
Backups: 1x3x2 = 6 x $3 = $18 (3 in 4th); 1x3x2 = 6 x $3 = $18 (2-7 in 10th)

$3 Pick 3 (2/4/7) $625.50

11th: 154th Belmont Stakes (G1), 3yo, 12f (P3, DD)

This is a fun Belmont despite the over-arcing criticisms of the Classic Season, highlighted by a Derby winner in Rich Strike that is much easier to like than people want to admit and a filly in Nest that makes more sense trying this spot the closer you look. Add in the 1-3 Wood Memorial finishers (Mo Donegal/Skippylongstocking) that were split by the Preakness winner, the hard-trying Creative Minister & Barber Road and Casse’s Sir Winston lookalike Golden Glider and you’ve got an intriguing 154th Test of the Champion. Bred best for the trip, at an attractive 8-1 and getting 5# from the boys, I’ll key off the filly. But I find myself rooting for Rich Strike..

Best Value: #3 Nest 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 We the People 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Rich Strike 7-2 6th
Super Add: #5 Creative Minister 6-1 5th

Gold Cup/Belmont DBL:

FRI 8: 1-4 (A), – (B), 3-5-6 (C)
SAT 11: 1-3-4-5 (A), – (B), – (C)

All A’s: 2×4 = 8 x $6 = $48
Backup: 3×3 = 9 x $2 = $18

$0.20 2-day P6:

FRI 9: 3-4-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
FRI 10: 2-3-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
SAT 6: 1 (A), – (B), – (C)
SAT 8: 1-4-5-8-12 (A), – (B), – (C)
SAT 10: 9-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
SAT 11: 1-3-4-5 (A), – (B), – (C)

All A’s: 3x3x1x5x2x4 = 360 x .20 = $72

P5 Grid:

7: 1-4 (A), – (B), 2-3-5 (C)
8: 1-4-8 (A), 5-12 (B), – (C)
9: 1 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 9-10 (A), 2-4-6-7 (B), – (C)
11: 1-3-4 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x1x6x3 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A’s: 2x3x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (C-A-A-A-A): 3x3x1x2x3 = 54 x .50 = $27

P4 Grid:

8: 1-4-8 (A), 5-12 (B), – (C)
9: 1 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 2-4-9-10 (A), 6-7 (B), – (C)
11: 1-3-4 (A), – (B), 5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x6x3 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A’s: 3x1x4x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (A-A-A-C): 3x1x4x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

12th: MCLM/$75k, 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Al’s Rocket 2-1 WON ($5.10)
Best Value: #7 Floki’s Flight 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 North Carolina 9-5 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Cheeky Tico 15-1 7th

13th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-Inner

Best Value: #7 Happy Hill Lil 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Palace Gossip 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #1 Solib 8-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Fontanafredda 5-1 8th

P5 Grid:

9: 1 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 2-4-6-7-9-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 1-3-4 (A), 5-6 (B), – (C)
12: 8 (A), – (B), – (C)
13: 7-12 (A), 1-6 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x6x5x1x4 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 1x6x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick 5 (1/7/6/3,5,8,11/12,13,14,15,16) Paid $447.00

P4 Grid:

10: 2-4-9-10 (A), – (B), 1-3-5-6-7-8 (C)
11: 1-3-4 (A), 5-6 (B), – (C)
12: 8 (A), – (B), – (C)
13: 7-12 (A), 1-6 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x1x4 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A’s: 4x3x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (C-A-A-A): 6x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18