12/31: Aqueduct ($195k Must Pay P6 C/O)

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

A New Year’s Eve carryover scenario always remind me of 2013 when a 5-A’s/1-C walk off home run for $11k+ made up for a tough-to-swallow DQ out of $23k at Del Mar earlier in the year. As Damon Runyon said, ‘all horseplayers die broke’, but as long as you’re above ground, you’re live in the next race..

Steve

3rd: MCLM/$40k, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Very difficult sequence starts with these undefined juvies of which 6 appear win-eligible (1-2-3-5-6-7). Kelly Breen’s turf/dirt dropper U Kant Whip It (8-1) showed speed in layoff return and looks like the one to catch. Ever-dangerous Bill Morey brings $30k claimant Runninsonofagun in from Churchill and would seem a fit here after OK debut. Rudy Rod sends firster Johnselectricride (5-1) and 0/4 Good Skate. Jimmy Jerkens drops $150k KEE yearling Gun Maestro in for the tag as a new gelding..

Most Likely: #3 Runninsonofagun 9-5 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #1 U Kant Whip It 8-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Good Skate 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Gun Maestro 4-1 4th

4th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Modest filly set that’s light on pace. R Working Girl & Harkie (The Herald Angels Sing) will have to go from inside and you can expect Mazal Eighteen and Violentiam to be stalking. Infringement got progressively worse on dirt as a 2yo before perking up a tad as a turfer this summer and appears a thoroughly compromised favorite (5-2)..

Most Likely: #6 Mazal Eighteen 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Violentiam 6-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Handle the Truth 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 R Working Girl 6-1 WON ($10.00)

5th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Blewitt tries to climb back up the ladder here and with the SCR of Runningforhome, may be pretty much alone on the lead..

Most Likely: #3 Blewitt 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #2 Direct Order 6-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Dark Storm 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Microscope 8-1 4th

6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Untreated (9-5) obviously the horse to beat even if he regresses off big return win. Has had 6 weeks and 4 half mile drills since then and appears able to deal with pace variables..

Most Likely: #6 Untreated 9-5 WON ($3.30)
Best Value: #7 Two Thirty Five 10-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Buy Land and See 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Boldish 10-1 4th

7th: Alex M. Robb-NY, 3+, 9f (DD)

Nice group to end the 2021 NY stakes slate, with 8 of the 9 owning black type credentials including ’20 Remsen winner Brooklyn Strong whose presence presents a hard decision..

Best Value: #5 Our Last Buck 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Tiergen 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Sea Foam 5-2 WON ($4.30)
Super Add: #3 Brooklyn Strong 6-1 7th

8th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 1m

Well-matched state bred boys a tough finish to fiendish skein..

Most Likely: #10 Curlin’s Wisdom 5-2: Controlling speed and debut on dirt more than OK v. these.. 2nd
Best Value: #3 Salty Heir 10-1: Half to Chowda & Lobsta (& soon Oysta!) gets hood for stretch out.. 7th
Next Best: #7 Juggler 8-1: Vasquez tripped this C/O yesterday; winning with everything in NY.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Excursioniste 3-1: Previous 1 turn mile try (Sleepy Hollow) fits well here.. 4th

P6 Grid:

3: 3 (A), 1-6 (B), 5 (C)
4: 6-9 (A), – (B), 1-4 (C)
5: 2-3 (A), – (B), 4 (C)
6: 6 (A), 7 (B), – (C)
7: 5-9 (A), – (B), 3-4 (C)
8: 3-10 (A), – (B), 4-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x2x2x2 = $96
All A’s: 1x2x2x1x2x2 = $16
Backups ($72): $8 (5) + $16 (1-4) + $8 (4) + $16 (3-4) + $16 (4-7)

P6 P5 Grid:

4: 6-9 (A), 1-4 (B), – (C)
5: 2-3-4 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 6 (A), 7 (B), – (C)
7: 5-9 (A), – (B), 3-4 (C)
8: 3-7-10 (A), – (B), 4-6-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups ($36): $18 (3-4) + $18 (4-6-8)

P4 Grid:

5: 2-3-4 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 6 (A), 7 (B), – (C)
7: 5-9 (A), – (B), 3-4 (C)
8: 3-7-10 (A), 4-6-8 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x6 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 3x1x2x3 = $18 ($9 for .50)
Backup: $9 (3-4)