CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 147TH DERBY DAY
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)
Uh.. Do yourself a favor and tread lightly early Saturday..
Best Value: #5 Soros 6-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Cool Bobby 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Sounion 5-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Randello 12-1 8th
2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
This is an utterly impossible, thoroughly mysterious group that further contributes to the suggestion you tread lightly early today..
Best Value: #7 Cerulean 15-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Elle Est Forte 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #12 The Ginger Queen 9-2 12th
Super Add: #1 Cadencia 2-1 4th
3rd: MSW, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)
Best Value: #2 Extreme 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Koolhaus 9-2 WON ($11.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Cash Rocket 3-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Alejandro 7-2 3rd
4th: OC/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)
Best Value: #9 Gun It 10-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Salvator Mundi 5-1 10th
Exotics Use: #7 Oak Hill 8-1 11th
Super Add: #6 Hay Dakota 8-1 5th
5th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 Ghazaaly 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Who Took the Money Late SCR
Best Value: #3 Quantum Leap 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Masqueparade 4-1 WON ($9.80)
6th: Distaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P3, DD)
Best Value: #2 She’s Got You 10-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Blowout 7-2 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Got Stormy 8-5 5th
Super Add: #4 Zofelle 2-1 3rd
7th: Derby City (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (‘Must Pay’ .20 Derby City P6, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 Gamine 1-5 WON ($2.40)
Next Best: #3 Bell’s the One 6-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Estilo Talentoso 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Sconsin 8-1 2nd
8th: Pat Day Mile (G2), 3yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD)
Jackie’s Warrior, Defunded, Prevalence, Dream Shake, Sittin On Go & Noble Reflection all cut back to one turn. Should be a terrific running..
Most Likely: #3 Jackie’s Warrior 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #4 Defunded 6-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Dream Shake 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Sittin On Go 20-1 5th
P5 Grid:
4: 4-7-9 (A), 3-6-8 (B), – (C)
5: 2-5 (A), – (B), 3-11 (C)
6: 2-6 (A), 4-5-7 (B), 3 (C)
7: 4 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 3-4-8 (A), – (B), 5-6-9-11 (C)
Simple (A+B): 6x2x5x1x3 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A’s: 3x2x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (3-11) + $9 (3) + $24 (5-6-9-11)
P4 Grid:
5: 2-3-5-11 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 2-6 (A), 4-5-7 (B), 3 (C)
7: 4 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 3-4-8 (A), 5-6-9 (B), 11 (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x5x1x6 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 4x2x1x3 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups: $6 (3) + $4 (11)
.50 Pick Four (11-1/6-4-2/3) Paid $47.30
9th: American Turf (G1), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Yikes. Half of this field of 14 looks eligible for laurels, so apply prices liberally..
Most Likely: #1 Excellent Timing 10-1 14th
Next Best: #14 Palazzi 10-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Next 20-1 11th
Exotics Use: #4 Annex 7-2 8th
10th: Churchill Downs (G1), 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)
I used 5-7-9-12 in the 2-day $2 P6, so I’m married to those (and Derby Barbie of course). Mind Control (6-1) scares me here and would even if Irad wasn’t signed on..
Best Value: #5 Tap It to Win 8-1 11th
Next Best: #9 Whitmore 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Shashashakemeup 12-1 10th
Super Add: #12 Endorsed 12-1 9th
11th: Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Spread to 6 wide in the 2-day P6 (1-2-3-4-5-6) and that may not have been enough with Smooth Like Straight a wire threat and Cross Border & Ride a Comet no doorknobs either. Outstanding group for this annual Derby prequel..
Best Value: #6 Digital Age 8-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Ivar 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Colonel Liam 3-1 DH-WON ($2.80)
Super Add: #1 Masteroffoxhounds 15-1 8th
12th: Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Hi-5)
Admit to finding this a confusing Derby with a 100% legit (undefeated!) favorite that just isn’t all that inspiring. Of note is Friday circumstance of Malathaat effort which could provide Shadwell & Godolphin with their most important North American wins ever. Meanwhile, I’ll side with a well-priced Midnight Bourbon who has been consistent, has had a great lead up to Derby and will be among the leaders at the 8th pole. Rock Your World fits that profile as well, and in many ways is the horse to beat. I’ve built plays around that trio as A’s, but I won’t be surprised by either of Todd Pletcher’s best hopes (Known Agenda/Dynamic One) or O’Neill (Hot Rod Charlie) & Baffert (Medina Spirit). O Besos is my preferred late running exotics candidate, but Keepmeinmind or even Hidden Stash can invade at giant numbers. While it may be a quirky edition of America’s best race, it’s been a pretty ‘normal’ Derby fortnight which feels good after an extended period of difficulty. Don’t be shy betting whatever opinion you’ve formulated and get lucky!
Best Value: #10 Midnight Bourbon 20-1 6th
Next Best: #15 Rock Your World 5-1 17th
Exotics Use: #14 Essential Quality 2-1 4th
Super Add: #6 O Besos 20-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #1 Known Agenda 6-1 9th
Deep Exotics: #11 Dynamic One 20-1 18th
.50 Reverse Tri Key using 4-Keepmeinmind, 6-O Besos, 13-Hidden Stash:
1-8-9-10-11-14-15-17 with 1-8-9-10-11-14-15-17 with 4-6-13 (8x7x3 = 168 x .50 = $84)
.20 Derby City P6 Grid:
7: 4 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 3-4-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 1-14 (A), 4-10 (B), – (C)
10: 5-7-9 (A), – (B), 2-12 (C)
11: 3-4-6 (A), – (B), 1-2-5 (C)
12: 1-10-14-15 (A), – (B), 8-9-11 (C)
Simple (A+B): 1x3x4x3x3x4 = 432 x .20 = $86.40
All A’s: 1x3x2x3x3x2 = 108 x .20 = $21.60
Backups: $28.80 (2-12) + $43.20 (1-2-5) + $32.40 (8-9-11)
P5 Grid:
8: 3 (A), – (B), 4-8 (C)
9: 1-14 (A), 4-10 (B), – (C)
10: 5-7-9 (A), – (B), 2-12 (C)
11: 4-6 (A), 3 (B), 1-2-5 (C)
12: 10-14-15 (A), 1 (B), 8-9-11 (C)
Simple (A+B): 1x4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 1x2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $36 (4-8) + $12 (2-12) + $27 (1-2-5) + $18 (8-9-11)
P4 Grid:
9: 1-14 (A), 4-10 (B), – (C)
10: 5-7-9 (A), – (B), 2-12 (C)
11: 4-6 (A), 3 (B), 1-2-5 (C)
12: 1-10-14-15 (A), – (B), 8-9-11 (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups: $16 (2-12) + $36 (1-2-5) + $18 (8-9-11)
$2 G1 2-Day P6 Grid:
FRI 8: 2 (A), – (B), 3 (C) ~ La Troienne
FRI 11: 10 (A), 5-6 (B), – (C) ~ Kentucky Oaks
SAT 7: 4 (A), – (B), – (C) ~ Distaff
SAT 10: 5-9 (A), 7-12 (B), – (C) ~ Churchill Downs
SAT 11: 3-4-6 (A), – (B), 1-2-5 (C) ~ Turf Classic
SAT 12: 10-14-15 (A), – (B), – (C) ~ Kentucky Derby
Simple (A+B): 1x3x1x4x3x3 = 108 x $2 = $216
All A’s: 1x1x1x2x3x3 = 18 x $2 = $36
Backups: $36 (1-2-5)
Oaks/Turf Classic/Derby P3 Grid:
FRI 11: 5-6-10 (A), – (B), 3-4-12 (C) ~ Kentucky Oaks
SAT 11: 3-4-6 (A), 1-2-5 (B), – (C) ~ Turf Classic
SAT 12: 10-14-15 (A), – (B), 1-8-9-11 (C) ~ Kentucky Derby
Simple (A+B): 3x6x3 = $54 ($27 for .50)
All A’s: 3x3x3 = $27 ($13.50 for .50)
Backups (.50): $13.50 (3-4-12) + $18 (1-8-9-11)
.50 Pick Three (OAKS/FRSTR/DERBY10-3-8) Paid $51.85
Oaks/Derby DBL:
FRI 11: 5-6-10 (A), – (B), 3-4-12 (C) ~ Kentucky Oaks
SAT 12: 10-14-15 (A), – (B), 1-8-9-11 (C) ~ Kentucky Derby
Simple (A+B): 3×3 = 18 x $3 = $54
Backup: $9 (3-4-12) + $12 (1-8-9-11)
$1 Daily Double (OAKS/DERBY 10-8) Paid $47.90
