CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 147TH OAKS DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Mucho Macho Momma 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Favorite Sin 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Powder River 7-2 WON ($12.60)
Super Add: #2 Pop a Choc 3-1 3rd

2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Musical Cat 12-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Anamuya 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Love in the Air SCR
Super Add: #2 Front Street 5-1 5th

3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Australasia 4-1 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #5 Zainalarab 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Amalfi Princess 7-2 6th
Super Add: #2 Rookery 4-1 7th

4th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 American West 3-1 7th
Best Value: #3 Illiogami 9-2 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #10 Another Woman 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Tabor Hall 8-1 2nd

5th: OC/N3X, 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Temple 5-1 4th
Next Best: 10 Spooky Channel 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Big Dreaming 10-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Ever Dangerous 5-1 3rd

P5 Grid:

1: 1-4-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
2: 7-8 (A), 1-2 (B), – (C)
3: 4 (A), – (B), 2-5-7 (C)
4: 2-3-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
5: 1-10 (A), 4-7 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x1x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x1x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x2x3x3x2 = 108 x .50 = $54

P4 Grid:

2: 1-2-7-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
3: 4 (A), 5 (B), 2-7 (C)
4: 2-3-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
5: 1-10 (A), 4-7 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 4x1x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: 4x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

6th: Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (.20 Derby City P6, )

Most Likely: #6 Maxfield 4-5 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #5 Roadster 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Sonneman 5-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Chess Chief 5-1 3rd

7th: Edgewood (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Aunt Pearl 4-5 5th
Best Value: #1 Postnup 6-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Gift List 7-2 WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Queen of the Green 10-1 4th

P5 Grid:

3: 4 (A), 5 (B), 2-7 (C)
4: 2-3-7-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
5: 1-10 (A), 4-7 (B), – (C)
6: 6 (A), – (B), 2-5 (C)
7: 6 (A), – (B), 1-2 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x1x1 = $32
All A’s: 1x4x2x1x1 = $8
Backups: $8 (2-7) + $8 (2-5) + $8 (1-2)

P4 Grid:

4: 2-3-7-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
5: 1-10 (A), 4-7 (B), – (C)
6: 6 (A), 2-5 (B), – (C)
7: 6 (A), – (B), 1-2 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x3x1 = $48
All A’s: 4x2x1x1 = $8
Backups: $8 (1-2)

8th: La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f $2 G1 2-Day P6, P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Shedaresthedevil 8-5 WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #3 Dunbar Road 5-2 5th
Best Value: #6 Sanenus 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Finite 5-1 3rd

$2 G1 2-Day P6 Grid:

FRI 8: 2 (A), – (B), 3 (C) ~ La Troienne
FRI 11: 10 (A), 5-6 (B), – (C) ~ Kentucky Oaks
SAT 7: 4 (A), – (B), – (C) ~ Distaff
SAT 10: 5-9 (A), 7-12 (B), – (C) ~ Churchill Downs
SAT 11: 3-4-6 (A), – (B), 1-2-5 (C) ~ Turf Classic
SAT 12: 10-14-15 (A), – (B), – (C) ~ Kentucky Derby

Simple (A+B): 1x3x1x4x3x3 = 108 x $2 = $216
All A’s: 1x1x1x2x3x3 = 18 x $2 = $36
Backups: $36 (1-2-5)

9th: Eight Belles (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Half the field turns back here which should make for a madcap scramble when mixed in with the sprinters. And though it’s deep water for a seasonal debut, I’m not dismissing Dayoutoftheoffice completely off sharp works with Into Mischiefs eligible to make big strides from 2 to 3..

Best Value: #12 Caramel Swirl 12-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Slumber Party 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Dayoutoftheoffice 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Li’l Tootsie 8-1 6th

10th: Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G2), 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Fast Boat 7-2 WON ($10.40)
Next Best: #3 Fiya 3-1 11th
Best Value: #11 Carotari 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Diamond Oops 5-1 4th

11th: Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (Oaks/Turf Classic Derby P3, Oaks/Derby DBL, P3, DD, Hi-5)

While still on the development curve, hoping Malathaat is ready right now to elevate herself further in this setting. And given her proximity in the Ashland, Pass the Champagne looks like the right alternate win candidate at a price. Hard to avoid respect for for Travel Column and Clairiere and Crazy Beautiful has been the single most exciting morning presence male or female preparing for the weekend. After that “Hi-5”, there are several that would be no surprise in any pay slot including Millefeuille and Search Results of course. While the overall quality of the sophomore filly set is still in flux, this is an outstanding race in terms of how well-matched they are as a group right now..

Most Likely: #10 Malathaat 5-2 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #5 Pass the Champagne 15-1 12th
Next Best: #6 Travel Column 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Crazy Beautiful 15-1 10th
Super/Hi-5: #3 Clairiere 5-1 4th

Oaks/Turf Classic/Derby P3 Grid:

FRI 11: 5-6-10 (A), – (B), 3-4-12 (C) ~ Kentucky Oaks
SAT 11: 3-4-6 (A), 1-2-5 (B), – (C) ~ Turf Classic
SAT 12: 10-14-15 (A), – (B), 1-8-9-11 (C) ~ Kentucky Derby

Simple (A+B): 3x6x3 = $54 ($27 for .50)
All A’s: 3x3x3 = $27 ($13.50 for .50)
Backups (.50): $13.50 (3-4-12) + $18 (1-8-9-11)

Oaks/Derby DBL:

FRI 11: 5-6-10 (A), – (B), 3-4-12 (C) ~ Kentucky Oaks
SAT 12: 10-14-15 (A), – (B), 1-8-9-11 (C) ~ Kentucky Derby

Simple (A+B): 3×3 = 18 x $3 = $54
Backup: $9 (3-4-12) + $12 (1-8-9-11)

.20 Derby City P6 Grid:

6: 6 (A), 2-5 (B), – (C)
7: 1-2-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 2-3 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 6-10-12 (A), 3-7-9 (B), – (C)
10: 3-8 (A), 9-11 (B), – (C)
11: 10 (A), – (B), 5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x6x4x1 = $86.40
All A’s: 1x3x2x3x2x1 = $7.20
Backup: $14.20 (5-6)

$0.20 Pick-6 (6/2/2/7/8/7,10) Paid $2,273.30

P5 Grid:

7: 1-2-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 2-3 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 6-10-12 (A), 3-7-9 (B), – (C)
10: 3-8 (A), 9-11 (B), 1-10 (C)
11: 10 (A), – (B), 5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x6x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (1-10) + $36 (5-6)

$0.50 Pick-5 (2/2/7/8/7,10) Paid $3,310.45

P4 Grid:

8: 2-3 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 6-10-12 (A), 3-7-9 (B), – (C)
10: 3-8 (A), 9-11 (B), 1-10 (C)
11: 5-6-10 (A), – (B), 3-4-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (1-10) + $18 (3-4-12)

$0.50 Pick-4 (2/7/8/7,10) Paid $384.65

12th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #8 More Than Unusual 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #10 Alnaseem 8-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Mintd 4-1 WON ($9.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Choate Bridge 4-1 9th

13th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f

Most Likely: #3 Magic Quest 9-2 8th
Best Value: #9 Lonely June 15-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Played Hard 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Liberty Isle 9-2 5th

P5 Grid:

9: 6-10-12 (A), 3-7-9 (B), – (C)
10: 3-8 (A), – (B), 9-11 (C)
11: 10 (A), – (B), 5-6 (C)
12: 8-10 (A), 2-4 (B), – (C)
13: 3-9 (A), 2-10 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x1x4x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A’s: 3x2x1x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups: $12 (9-11) + $24 (5-6)

P4 Grid:

10: 3-8 (A), 9-11 (B), – (C)
11: 10 (A), – (B), 3-4-5-6-12 (C)
12: 8-10 (A), 2-4 (B), – (C)
13: 2-3-9-10 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x4x4 = 64 x .50 = $32
All A’s: 2x1x2x4 = 16 x .50 = $8
Backups: $40 (3-4-5-6-12)