KEENELAND ~ BREEDERS’ CUP SATURDAY
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: Perryville, 3yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5)
Prudent handling choice lands Nashville here. Should he cruise as anticipated, will be interesting to see how his clocking matches up with that of the Sprint 4 hours later..
Most Likely: #1 Nashville 4-5 WON ($2.20)
Best Value: #2 Little Menace 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Relentless Dancer 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Bango 5-1 4th
2nd: Lafayette, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5)
Like Friday’s Bryan Station, a group with contention top to bottom..
Best Value: #12 Phat Man 6-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Engage 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Mind Control 8-1 9th
Super Add: #8 Strike That 6-1 DNF-Incident
3rd: Fort Springs, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5)
Sure looks like there’s too much speed signed on for someone to shake loose. Miss T Too has run into Four Graces, Sconsin and Shedaresthedevil this year, but appears to absolutely need the lead to win..
Best Value: #4 Wicked Whisper 5-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Motivated Seller 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Miss T Too 5-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Fair Maiden 8-1 4th
4th: Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5)
Cup Saturday begins with the heavyweight confrontation of 3yo Gamine & 4yo Serengeti Empress with the edge going to the outposted Serengeti. Another dose of speed came out with the SCR of Inthemidstofbiz, so this may turn into a shoulder to shoulder battle. Speech gets to bide her time while saving ground, while Bell’s the One, Sconsin and Sally’s Curlin will be motoring late..
Most Likely: #7 Serengeti Empress 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Gamine 7-5 WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #9 Bell’s the One 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Speech 6-1 6th
5th: Turf Sprint (G1), 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5)
There’s pace here, but can you project a full throttle battle up front? West Coasters Big Runnuer and Bombard, blinkered Texas Wedge and early Woodford leader Just Might look to break running. Triple digit Beyers have won this event the last 5 years (108 par) and the stalking types (Imprimis, Leinster, Front Run the Fed, filly Into Mystic, mare Got Stormy) fit the profile and race flow. Feels like the late runners can impact bottom rungs, but will find it hard to get up..
Best Value: #4 Front Run the Fed 12-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Leinster 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #12 Got Stormy 7-2 5th
Super Add: #3 Imprimis 4-1 13th
P5 Grid:
1: 1 (A), – (B), 2 (C)
2: 1-10-12 (A), – (B), – (C)
3: 4-10 (A), – (B), 5 (C)
4: 2-7 (A), 1-9 (B), 5-8 (C)
5: 4-7-12 (A), 1-3-10 (B), 5-8-14 (C)
Simple (A+B): 1x3x2x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 1x3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: $18 (2) + $9 (5) + $18 (5-8-14)
P4 Grid:
2: 1-10-12 (A), – (B), – (C)
3: 4-10 (A), – (B), 5 (C)
4: 2-7 (A), 1-9 (B), 5-8 (C)
5: 4-7-12 (A), 1-3-10 (B), 5-6-8-9-11-14 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: $9 (5) + $36 (5-6-8-9-11-14)
6th: Dirt Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5)
If Knicks Go or Complexity run their race, everyone seems to be running for minor awards. Upset options: Art Collector, Sharp Samurai, War of Will..
Most Likely: #5 Knicks Go 7-2 WON ($5.60)
Next Best: #10 Complexity 2-1 4th
Best Value: #4 War of Will 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #1 Art Collector 6-1 8th
7th: Filly & Mare Turf (G1), F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5)
Rushing Fall has had a Hall of Fame career and appears poised to close it out with a 2nd Cup score..
Most Likely: #6 Rushing Fall 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Peaceful 12-1 11th
Next Best: #4 Mean Mary 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Starship Jubilee 10-1 DNF-Rider fell
P4 Grid:
4: 2-7-9 (A), 1-5-8 (B), – (C)
5: 3-4-7-12-14 (A), 1-5-8-9-10 (B), 2-6-11-13 (C)
6: 5-10 (A), – (B), 1-4 (C)
7: 6 (A), – (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 6x10x2x1 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 3x5x2x1 = 30 x .50 = $15
Backups: $12 (2-6-11-13)
8th: Sprint (G1), 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5)
Firenze Fire (8-1, though likely lower after Vekoma SCR) should provide real value here given consistency and ability to stalk and finish. Yaupon could shake loose and be tough to reel in. Diamond Oops is amazingly versatile and should be in the clear. Empire of Gold is the type of handy colt that manages to snare a piece in this event..
Best Value: #8 Firenze Fire 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Yaupon 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Diamond Oops 8-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Empire of Gold 30-1 4th
9th: Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5)
Arguably the day’s most contentious event with more than half eligible to win and everyone capable of finding a pay slot. Kameko tried some longer events after 2000 Guineas win, but he’s clearly a miler and the kind that has had success historically in this event. After that, use can use any and everyone based on how you see race unfolding. Halladay missed his prep assignment but looked tremendous this week. Will take them a long way. Digital Age has had a sneaky good year easing into deeper waters and has ability to close into slow paces..
Most Likely: #2 Kameko 6-1 7th
Best Value: #10 Halladay 12-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Digital Age 8-1 11th
Exotics Use: #7 Casa Creed 20-1 12th
P4 Grid:
6: 5-10 (A), 1-4 (B), – (C)
7: 3-6 (A), 1-4 (B), – (C)
8: 8-10-11 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 2-5-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
10th: Distaff (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5)
Monomoy Girl & Swiss Skydiver are obviously the principals, but Horologist has a real upsetter look and Valiance got good at the right time..
Most Likely: #10 Monomoy Girl 8-5 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #4 Horologist 8-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Swiss Skydiver 2-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Valiance 12-1 2nd
Special Double Grid:
FRI 8: 2-7 (A), 1-3 (B), 5-6 (C)
SAT 10: 5-10 (A), 4-8 (B), 2-3-7 (C)
Simple (A+B): 4×4 = 16 x $3 = $48 $58.20
All A’s: 2×2 = 4 x $5 = $20 $97.00
Backups: 2×3 = 6 x $2 = $12 + 2×2 = 4 x $2 = $8
11th: Turf (G1), 3+, 12f-T (DD, Jackpot Hi-5)
Top Euro candidates appear better than domestic offerings, but Channel Maker (and Arklow too) should provide resistance..
Most Likely: #10 Mogul 4-1 5th
Best Value: #9 Channel Maker 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Tarnawa 6-1 WON ($11.40)
Exotics Use: #2 Magical 5-2 2nd
12th: Classic (G1), 3+, 10f (Jackpot Hi-5)
Deep and engaging Classic is led by Tom’s d’Etat & Improbable who have had heavyweight handicap seasions. It feels like it comes down to them. Tiz the Law arrived early and gets the nod over Authentic among the 3yo’s. Higher Power has a puncher’s chance here if he can reprise the Pacific Classic effort from ’19..
Most Likely: #4 Tom’s d’Etat 6-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Improbable 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Higher Power 20-1 10th
Exotics Use: #2 Tiz the Law 3-1 6th
Hi-5 Play: #1 Tacitus 20-1 4th
P5 Grid:
8: 8-10-11 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 2-5-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 10 (A), 4-5 (B), – (C)
11: 3-9-10 (A), 2 (B), – (C)
12: 4-8 (A), – (B), 2-6 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x3x3x4x2 = 216 x .50 = $108
All A’s: 3x3x1x3x2 = 54 x .50 = $27
Backup: $27 (2-6)
P4 Grid:
9: 2-5-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 4-10 (A), 5 (B), 2-8-9 (C)
11: 3-9-10 (A), 2 (B), – (C)
12: 4-8 (A), 2-6 (B), 3-9-10 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $27 (2-8-9) + $27 (3-9-10)
