CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 146TH OAKS DAY
POST-LATE SCRATCHES
4th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)
Scorching Wayne Catalano (Ocean Breeze here, Manny Wah SCR in 6th, MDN Pit Boss in the 3rd Saturday) is 11 for 44 over the last 90 days with 28 of 44 in the money..
Most Likely: #6 Ocean Breeze 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 She Can’t Sing 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Miss T Too 5-2 WON ($9.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Palomita 7-2 2nd
5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)
Best Value: #11 Honorifique 12-1: 2nd timer bulleted; Kenneally poised for nice weekend.. 7th
Next Best: #8 Travel Column 7-2: $850k Frosted from Cox for Larry Best.. WON ($11.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Amiche 9-2: Firster savvy Devaux w/ 3 graded STK run’rs at CD, SAR.. 10th
Super Add: #5 Three Tipsy Chix 20-1: Wilkes will have On Fire Baby baby ready to run.. 8th
6th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #8 Strike That 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Honest Mischief 2-1 WON-Up via DQ ($5.40)
Best Value: #2 Mojo Man 10-1 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #3 Mucho 8-1 5th
7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-T (.20 Single Six, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #7 I Hear You 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #8 Sicilia 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Sense You Left 10-1 10th
Exotics Use: #6 Flabbergasted 3-1 WON ($8.60)
8th: Eight Belles (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD)
Interchangeable faves poised for big, early confrontation and Sconsin poised if pair burn each other out..
Most Likely: #7 Four Graces 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #1 Mundaye Call 6-5 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Sconsin 6-1 WON ($16.40)
P5 Grid:
4: 1-3-6
5: 3-5-8-11
6: 2-5-8
7: 7
8: 1-6-7-10
All A’s: 3x4x3x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
P4 Grid:
5: 3-5-8-11
6: 2-5-8
7: 7-8-10
8: 1-6-7-10
All A’s: 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
9th: Edgewood (G2), 3yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
Sharing one of weekends most likely winners; 20-1 Lucky Betty is no worse than the other exotic candidates..
Most Likely: #3 Sharing 6-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #2 Hendy Woods 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Lucky Betty 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 In Good Spirits 5-1 4th
10th: Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (2-day $2 P6, P4, P3, DD)
Top pair have clear edge on rest of the field..
Most Likely: #2 McKinzie 8-5 4th
Next Best: #6 By My Standards 7-5 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #1 Silver Dust 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Owendale 6-1 2nd
2-day $2 P6 Grid:
FRI 10: 2-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
FRI 11: 2-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
FRI 12: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
SAT 12: 10 (A), 8 (B), – (C)
SAT 13: 8 (A), – (B), – (C)
SAT 14: 17 (A), 16-18 (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x2x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144
All A’s: 2x2x3x1x1x1 = 12 x $2 = $24
11th: La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)
After conquering Midnight Bisou at the Spa, can Vexatious best Monomoy Girl here? Why not?
Best Value: #2 Vexatious 4-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Monomoy Girl 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Exotics Use: #6 She’s a Julie 6-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Horologist 4-1 3rd
12th: Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (Oaks-Turf Classic Derby P3, Oaks-Derby DBL, DD, Hi-5)
What had been billed as a Swiss Skydiver/Gamine duel is now clearly a 3 way battle with Speech unlikely to sneak up on anyone after several weeks of attention. Using all 3 in multis. Shedaresthedevil needs to take another step forward for laurels, but she does keep improving..
Most Likely: #5 Gamine 1-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Speech 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Swiss Skydiver 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Shedaresthedevil 20-1 WON ($32.20)
Hi-5 Play: #3 Donna Veloce 15-1 8th
P5 Grid:
8: 1-5-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 3 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 2-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 2-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), 7 (C)
All A’s: 3x1x2x2x3 = $36 ($18 for .50)
Backup: 3x1x2x2x1 = 12 x .50 = $6 (1-5-7 with 3 with 2-6 with 2-8 with 7) $0.50 Pick-5 (5/3,5/6/8/7) Paid $1,413.70
P4 Grid:
9: 3 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 2-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 2-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), 7 (C)
All A’s: 1x2x2x3 = 12 x $4 = $48
Backup: 1x2x2x1 = $4 (3 with 2-6 with 2-8 with 7) $1 Pick-4 (3,5/6/8/7) Paid $256.20
Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby P3 Grid:
FR 13/Oaks: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), 7 (C)
SA 13/Turf: 8 (A), – (B), – (C)
SA 14/Derby: 16-17-18 (A), – (B), 3-10-15 (C)
All A’s: 3x1x3 = 9 x $5 = $45
Backup: 1x1x3 = $3 (7 with 1 with 16-17-18)
Backup: 3x1x3 = $9 (1-4-5 with 8 with 3-10-15)
Oaks-Derby DD:
FR 13/Oaks: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), 7 (C)
SA 14/Derby: 16-17-18 (A), – (B), 3-10-15 (C)
All A’s: 3×3 = 9 x $5 = $45
Backup: 1×3 = 3 x $3 = $9 (7 with 16-17-18)
Backup: 3×3 = 9 x $3 = $27 (1-4-5 with 3-10-15)
13th: Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 5.5f-T
Ageless Extravagant Kid the horse to beat, but there’s no margin for error and another baker’s half dozen eligible for laurels if it isn’t him..
Most Likely: #5 Extravagant Kid 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #10 Carotari 8-1 6th
Best Value: #12 Chaps 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Wellabled 10-1 12th
P4 Grid:
10: 2-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 2-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 1-4-5 (A), – (B), 7 (C)
13: 5-10-12 (A), 1-2-6-13-14 (B), (C)
Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x8 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 146TH DERBY DAY ADVANCE
PRE-SCRATCHES
4th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 Essential Quality 3-1: Godolphin Tapit homebred out of fast sprint mare..
Best Value: #4 Santa Cruiser 15-1: Desormeaux firster a half to quick Beau Oxy..
Next Best: #11 Rye Sense of Humor 6-1: Chased Drop Anchor home at ELP..
Exotics Use: #6 Xietelhuas 12-1: May want turf, but Eric Reed sharp debut guy..
5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 Spanish Kingdom 3-1
Next Best: #8 On a Spree 7-2
Best Value: #4 Trident Hit 5-1
Exotics Use: #7 Attorney Tim 8-1
6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #11 Cowboy Diplomacy 7-2
Next Best: #6 Cool Bobby 4-1
Best Value: #4 Wayne O 15-1
Exotics Use: #3 Coastal Defense 8-1
7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)
One of the weekend’s most interesting races. 10-1 Tank Commander is a regally bred ouchy type with an ideal behind the speed style..
Best Value: #5 Tank Commander 10-1
Next Best: #12 Locally Owned 4-1
Exotics Use: #4 Signalman 8-1
Super Add: #7 Chess Chief 6-1
8th: American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 Smooth Like Strait 8-5
Next Best: #4 Field Pass 2-1
Best Value: #2 American Butterfly 12-1
Exotics Use: #8 Fancy Liquor 9-2
P5 Grid:
4: – (A), – (B), – (C)
5: – (A), – (B), – (C)
6: – (A), – (B), – (C)
7: – (A), – (B), – (C)
8: – (A), – (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B):
All A’s:
P4 Grid:
5: – (A), – (B), – (C)
6: – (A), – (B), – (C)
7: – (A), – (B), – (C)
8: – (A), – (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B):
All A’s:
9th: Pat Day Mile (G2), 3yo, 1m (.20 Must Pay Single Six, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #2 Echo Town 7-2
Best Value: #5 Digital 12-1
Next Best: #9 Rushie 4-1
Exotics Use: #6 Tap It to Win 4-1
10th: Iroquois (G3), 2yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD)
Most Likely:
Next Best Value:
Next Best Value:
Exotics Use:
Super Add:
11th: Distaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 Newspaperofrecord 4-5
Next Best: #3 Juliet Foxtrot 5-1
Best Value: #2 Daddy Is a Legend 6-1
Exotics Use: #7 La Signare 10-1
P4 Grid:
7: – (A), – (B), – (C)
8: – (A), – (B), – (C)
9: – (A), – (B), – (C)
10: – (A), – (B), – (C)
11: – (A), – (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B):
All A’s:
P4 Grid:
8: – (A), – (B), – (C)
9: – (A), – (B), – (C)
10: – (A), – (B), – (C)
11: – (A), – (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B):
All A’s:
12th: Derby City Distaff (G1), 4+, 7f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #10 Ce Ce 3-1
Best Value: #4 Bell’s the One 10-1
Next Best: #8 Serengeti Empress 9-5
Exotics Use: #1 Mia Mischief 6-1
13th: Old Forester Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (DD)
Most Likely: #8 Sacred Life 6-1
Best Value: #6 Mr Dumas 12-1
Next Best: #1 Factor This 3-1
Exotics Use: #3 Rockemperor 7-2
14th: Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (Hi-5)
Most Likely: #17 Tiz the Law 3-5
Next Best: #16 Honor A.P. 5-1
Exotics Use: #18 Authentic 8-1
Best Value: #3 Enforceable 30-1
Super Add: #10 Thousand Words 15-1
Hi-5 Play: #15 Ny Traffic 20-1
.20 ‘Must Pay’ Single Six:
9: – (A), – (B), – (C)
10: – (A), – (B), – (C)
11: – (A), – (B), – (C)
12: – (A), – (B), – (C)
13: – (A), – (B), – (C)
14: – (A), – (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B):
All A’s:
P5 Grid:
10: – (A), – (B), – (C)
11: – (A), – (B), – (C)
12: – (A), – (B), – (C)
13: – (A), – (B), – (C)
14: – (A), – (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B):
All A’s:
P4 Grid:
11: – (A), – (B), – (C)
12: – (A), – (B), – (C)
13: – (A), – (B), – (C)
14: – (A), – (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B):
All A’s:
