8/21: Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Analysis presented by NYRA Bets

SARATOGA – 8/21/2020
Nick Tammaro ~ @NTamm1215

#4 STRIKING CAUSEWAY is the one to catch in a situation where you can hope Irad Ortiz, Jr. will be aggressive.  This son of Giant’s Causeway showed huge speed two back when he nearly scored at Belmont and now goes 3^rd off a layoff for a barn that’s quietly having a good meet.  #7 SILVER TOKEN nearly scored last time out when ridden more aggressively early by Jose Lezcano.  He can get the jump on #6 ADVANCED STRATEGY again, and that helps his chances.  That son of Karakontie rallied well in his turf debut and now gets Lasix for the first time.  If the top pick gets hooked up in a pace battle, he stands to benefit most.

#5 THE ANGRY MAN switches surfaces after showing marked improvement on turf for trainer Dermot Magner.  He has speed and proved he can handle a distance of ground in those grass tries.  Look for him to be forwardly placed under the hot riding Luis Saez.  #2 ASHIHAM has burned more money than Bernie Madoff in his last four outings, failing as a favorite of 2-1 or less each time.  He has no speed and that’s the biggest negative here, but he faces a weaker field today than he did last time out.  #1 TENDERFOOT is first off a claim by Charlton Baker and adds blinkers on the stretchout.  He just may be the one to catch from this advantageous inside post, but he has to improve by leaps and bounds to contend with the top two.

#6 GOLDEN PAL is a beautifully bred colt by Uncle Mo out of the crack turf sprinter Lady Shipman.  This colt debuted impressively at Gulfstream then nearly won a 12 horse Group II at Royal Ascot at second asking.  He drew well outside and should be involved from the start.  #5 FAUCI is a fleet-footed son of Malibu Moon who broke his maiden last time out at Keeneland.  He is the main threat to the top pick and happens to be his stablemate.  #4 SKY’S NOT FALLING scored on debut and now moves to turf for trainer Mike Trombetta.  He has two siblings who have won on turf and the worktab is impressive.

#8 CITIZEN K is a half to 4x juvenile winner La Fuerza and appears to be training well for a strong barn.  The outside draw also helps this colt.  #4 EAGLE ORB is by 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb, whose progeny win on debut at a 10% clip.  The dam here was a 2YO winner and she has dropped 6 winners from 7 to make it to the races.  #6 CAPE COD GEM is by 14% debut sire Gemologist and is out of a dam who won 6 times.  She has dropped one 2x winner from as many to race and this barn scored with a debuting runner at the recently concluded Belmont meet.

#5 UNPRECEDENTED has improved since moving back to the grass and exits a 4^th place finish that was every bit as good as #7 STANDUP’s 3^rd place finish.  This son of Bayern broke like a shot and was wrangled back off the pace to race in a stalking position.  He finished with interest and is deserving of another chance in a race that isn’t exactly loaded with early zip.  #9 MY MAN FLINTSTONE is moving back to the turf as well and he had no chance in his lone prior grass try.  He faced very tough N1X runners that day and wound up getting into trouble before being eased.  This is his race to lose in many ways given the lack of speed on paper and he figures to be a square price.  The aforementioned Standup is a late runner who will need some help on the front end.  If things heat up you can count on him to make noise late.

#4 DUOPOLY wired a field of maidens last time out after a disappointing debut at Churchill Downs.  There were clearly high aspirations for this daughter of Animal Kingdom given she was 6/5 on debut in a 12 horse field and she appears to be the one to catch today.  #6 PRINCESA CAROLINE is a half-sister of champion Lady Eli and she showed tremendous potential on debut for Chad Brown.  She’s back off a layoff today and this barn does well with these types.  Whether she has matured from 2 to 3 will be the main question.  #1 LASHARA was taken out of her game when forced to stalk the pace last time as she would prefer to settle a little farther off the pace.  This is a sizable class drop and this Hall of Fame barn is sure to win a race at this meet at some point.

#5 FLAT AWESOME JENNY cuts back in distance after racing wide on Haskell day at Monmouth.  That was not the place you wanted to be and this mare was badly out-classed anyway.  This is a reasonable spot and Irad Ortiz, Jr. sees fit to get aboard.  #3 JUMP FOR JOY is the one to catch and that makes her dangerous.  She has held her form well for the underrated barn of Mertkan Kantarmaci and a repeat of her last would make her a likely winner.  #4 I’LL TAKE THE CAKE cuts back in distance after chasing the pace and tiring last time out at a mile.  Sprinting appears to be her game and she’ll be able to settle and make one run in here.

There are few negatives when it comes to #4 FREEWHEELER, who appears to be a likely winner off the bench.  He began his career in style against NY breds and lands in a soft spot where he should get a pace setup.  #6 BEACHSIDE is deserving of another try on turf given he was slow into stride on debut in a race with no pace.  His trainer has been on a tear and there will be pace for him to run at late.  #1 VETERANS BEACH is now in the care of Christophe Clement after showing serious ability for Dave Donk.  A new gelding off the layoff, he lures Joel Rosario and a cozy inside slot.

#7 KEPT WAITING outran #6 GAELIC GOLD in the race that’s common amongst the two of them from July 22.  The former was close to a strong pace that completely collapsed while the latter enjoyed a sweet trip up the inside.  ‘Waiting is the one to favor here though they are both the prime win candidates.  #8 KILKEA changes barns off a game effort when 2^nd early in the Belmont meet.  She improved on the move to turf and can get the jump on the deep closers as a pace stalking type.

SARATOGA MEET STATS: 260-58-46-40      $358.70