8/16: Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Analysis presented by NYRA Bets

SARATOGA – 8/16/2020
Nick Tammaro ~ @NTamm1215

As trainer Chad Brown’s barn has heated up, his first time starters have been impressive and #1 SCHOOL OF THOUGHT looks well meant.  She was a modest auction purchase who is working well and the dam is a half to Grade I winner AP Adventure.  #3 CANTATA is from the barn of Steve Asmussen, who scored another win with a 2YO on Saturday when Calibrate won a loaded looking 6^th race.  This filly is by 13% debut sire Medaglia d’Oro and is the first foal to race out of a mare who won twice as a juvenile.  #6 NEVISIAN SUNRISE is the first foal of Gazelle winner My Miss Sophia.  Her sire, War Front, hits at a 12% clip with progeny on debut as 2YOs.

Brown will be in position for the early double with #2 COMPLEX SYSTEM dropping in for a tag.  Though he failed with one of these earlier in the week, he excels with MSW-MCL droppers in turf routes at Saratoga (43%, $3.30 ROI).  #1 CHOCOLATE BAR races without blinkers after showing increased speed most recently at Keeneland and tiring late.  He is part of an entry with #1A LOKOYA ROAD, who had similar issues when last seen at Fair Grounds.  He stalked a hot pace and tired late.  Both have shown enough ability to be given a long look in here.  #3 SEIZE THE HAY is another dropping in for a tag and shortening up in distance.  The inside post should afford jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. an opportunity to save ground and this is the right trip.

#6 OUR LADY OF LORETO has serious speed and can get clear of this field as she jumps up in class off a win against lesser.  The competition she’s meeting here is undoubtedly tougher, but the quickest way home is on the front end.  #2 PICK UP THE FONE enters off a narrow miss against straight 3Yos where she enjoyed a sweet trip before checking in second.  She has been most effective on the lead and that trip is not an option today.  #5 LADY C is a late runner who was up for second last time out after some early trouble.  She’ll benefit if the top pick gets hooked and she has the best proven consistent form in the race.

#2 LIDO KEY is supposed to win this race as she was pace compromised last time out against tougher and now gets more class relief.  There’s some suspect speed drawn to her outside that can battle early and set the table and she is drawn well to save ground.  #6 SKYE SNOW is dropping in class off a layoff for Mike Maker, who is having a sensational Saratoga meet.  This gal was too close to a hot pace last time out and understandably tired.  This distance is more to her liking as well.  #8 SKY KITTEN was a game 4^th last time out after tracking a pace that stuck together.  This is a notable jockey change and she still has upside.

#2 MIDNIGHT TEA TIME looks like the one to catch in a race completely devoid of early speed.  Whether he’s good enough to hold them all off late is a different issue but the right pilot is aboard and he has been keeping solid company going shorter.  #6 NAKAMURA was a strong 3^rd behind division leader Zulu Alpha when last seen at Keeneland now goes 2^nd off a layoff.  He was pace compromised that afternoon as well bu still finished with interest and returns to the site of his last victory today.  #1 PILLAR MOUNTAIN is a late runner who got a tightener last time out at Belmont.  He has been most effective at these elongated trips and is also capable of staying a tad closer in the opening stages.

#2 LOST IN ROME was parked wide much of the way last time out on a surface where the inside paths were best.  He gets a rider change today and can stalk from the inside in a race without much speed.  That’s enough to land here in a tricky affair.  #4 BREITHORN was outfinished by the top pick last time out when 3^rd after encountering some early trouble.  He goes 3^rd off a layoff today and should be wound tighter for trainer Bill Mott.  #6 MARKET IMPACTdebuted on dirt almost a year ago to the day and is now in the care of former Chad Brown assistant Jorge Abreu. He seems to be training decently and the blinkers go on, so look for him to show increased speed today.

Even if the Beyer figure from the last start of #6 LA HARA is a bit high, he still looks like a cinch.  He goes 2^nd off the bench today following a game effort when second to Colonel Liam, who came back to run arguably the best race of any horse in the Saratoga Derby.  #7 OAK HILL had things all his own way last time out when victorious at this trip.  He will not get the lead in here barring something unforeseen, but did run a race that was fast enough to give him consideration as an alternative to the top pick.  While he is likely always going to be better going shorter, #9 DURESSmoved early last time out before getting collared late and now goes 2^nd off an extended break.  This barn is quietly having a nice run at the Spa as well.

#11 BIG Q is drawn favorably on the outside for trainer Gary Gullo as she drops in class.  This filly was entered in the same race a few in here exit from last month but drew the rail and now re-surfaces.  She has consistently run races fast enough to beat this field with ease and she should get a strong pace to run at late.  #3 JC’S SHOOTING STAR is a veteran daughter of Miracle Man who has battled it out many times around NY.  She enters off a respectable effort on turf and will appreciate the return to dirt along with more distance.  There is also plenty of pace on paper to set up her late bid.  #5 BERTRANDA stays at the same N2X level she has won at twice and retains Irad Ortiz, Jr.  She got a perfect ride last time and enjoyed a sweet trip along the inside much of the way.  This is a deeper field, but you have to respect the hot hand.

#2 ENOLA GAY was a tremendously impressive winner of the Appalachian last time out and now goes 2^nd off the bench for trainer Shug McGaughey. This filly can be the controlling speed in a race totally lacking pace and she has reportedly trained well with recent stakes winner Civil Union of late.  #3 ANTOINETTE was compromised by a slow pace last time she raced on turf and now returns to the weeds for Bill Mott.  It wouldn’t surprise any if this daughter of Hard Spun ended up on the lead given she has shown some early interest before and she has kept tough company throughout this 2020 campaign.  #6 RICETTA is new to the barn of Bill Mott and likely just joined his care given she raced last month and has worked only once stateside.  She stepped up in competition well last time out and seems to have plenty of ability.

#6 INK SPLOTZ didn’t get out of the gate cleanly in his first try for the suddenly surging Orlando Noda barn and now moves back to dirt while dropping in class.  He is the speed of the speed in this affair and gets a shrewd pilot for pace types today.  Catch him if they can.  #3 SOUTHERN BRIDGE is an interesting horse cutting back in distance, but whether he can be effective on fast dirt is the real question.  He has had only two tries and has performed credibly against tougher, so you have to give him a lengthy look.  #9 BIG BOY MO is in the right spot class-wise and can lay back and make one run today.  That’s how he has been most effective and such a trip would make him a live player for a minor share.

SARATOGA MEET STATS: 234-49-39-36      $311.00