8/14: Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Analysis presented by NYRA Bets

SARATOGA – 8/14/2020
Nick Tammaro ~ @NTamm1215

#7 AIN’T NONE LUCKY ran a race last time that would win this thing.  She ran well here last year and is drawn favorably on the outside to stalk and pounce.  #1 SPANISH PEAKS switches surfaces and put forth a couple of dirt efforts that make her competitive.  There’s no value to be had here though.  #5 FLASHING RED goes 3^rd off a layoff and drops in class for trainer Wayne Catalano.  This is her first try sprinting and she should be a late player if the pace is solid.

#6 NOTORIOUS R B G goes 2^nd off a layoff after showing increased speed and hanging in there gamely to finish fourth against much tougher last time.  If she can stay close early that’ll help her chances, but you’ll have to take a short price here.  #4 BRASS RING is the speed of the speed and comes in off a romp in the slop.  She is a winner over this strip and is quick enough to be in front by as much as Dylan Davis wants in this spot.  #3 STOP WAR was an even third last time out and goes 3^rd off the bench today.  She is likely better going longer but this field is softer than the one she faced last month.

#4 MAKIN OUT spent too much time on the poorer inside paths last time out. She now returns to a dry strip, which is her preference, and she figures to be just off the pace in the opening stages.  #7 MOSIENKO cleared the N2L condition last time out and goes first off a claim by trainer Robert Falcone, Jr.  This barn is 23% with dirt sprinters first off of claims ($2.11 ROI) and the outside post is ideal.  #1 PERSIAN QUEEN faces elders for the first time today and drew poorly on the inside.  She goes out for a cold barn but was wide last time in a race dominated towards the rail and she posted a speed figure that would make her very competitive in this spot.

#6 CHALEUR may not be good enough to down the graded stake types that dot this field, but she has a pace edge on them and will be an appealing price.  If able to get the lead, she is a threat to go the distance and still has upside given the two races she’s run thus far in the US.  #4 ALTEA is hurt by the way this race shapes up on paper.  She is a late runner who has been facing better, and enters in strong form for Chad Brown.  Look for her late as the likely favorite.  #1 CAFÉ AMERICANO comes back off a long layoff after racing wide and off the pace in the QEII at Keeneland.  She has the tactical speed to lay a bit closer early and that helps her cause.

#3 POINT OF HUMOR was in a series of bad spots last time out when 6^th against similar foes.  He gets an upgrade at pilot and is a live longshot given the strength of some of his past races.  #7 AHEAD OF PLAN is an enigmatic son of Big Drama who has run poorly despite always training well.  His lone turf try earns a grade of ‘incomplete’ given he broke poorly and lost all chance.  That makes him worthy of another try.  #5 IT’S A WRAP goes 3^rd off a layoff after failing against tougher most recently here at the Spa.  His two back effort is good enough to make him the favorite and he has the speed to be within range early.

#9 CALIFORNIA NIGHT goes first off a claim for trainer Chris Englehart and gets a needed cutback in distance.  He is drawn favorably outside and will be a square price at the windows.  #7 FAMILY BIZ cuts back in distance 3^rd off a layoff for trainer Dave Duggan as he drops beneath the level at which he was claimed.  There’s enough pace in here to setup his late run and he’ll be a square price.  #1A CLENCH is dropping in class off of two dull efforts since moving to the care of Brad Cox.  If he can get the lead he’ll be dangerous.

#8 BOURBON CURRENCY is a late runner who was in tight last time out when trying to rally up the inside.  He needs pace to set up his late run and is an interesting price alternative to #3 FIG JELLY, who seems to always run second.  That son of Forestry has had the same case of ‘seconditis’ for Brad Cox that he did for Jason Servis.  He gets huge class relief today and that might be enough to put him in the winner’s circle.  #6 EMPIRE LINE didn’t have much of a chance in his North American debut and now gets shades and lasix.

#7 KAZMANIA gets an upgrade at pilot and is a late runner who’ll benefit if things heat up early.  He has had a hard time winning, but has held his form well and figures to be an interesting play at 6-1 or so.  #4 TALE OF THE UNION is the horse to beat for trainer Bob Baffert as he exits a handy win against lesser.  He faced a weak field that day and is not in as ideal a spot now with speed around him.  He’s a must-use in the P5 but hardly a favorite you want to base your day around.  #8 RUNAWAY LUTE fell before the start last time out and still ran at Laurel.  He is back in against NY breds and was very impressive at this level back in 2018.

#1A VALUE ENGINEERING ran a hole in the wind last time out and should have won that 11 furlong affair.  He is likely better going a bit shorter than that distance and he can settle and make one run today.  Look for him in the late stages.  #11 BUNDIBUNAN was a good 3^rd behind Voting Control two back and was interfered with by Value Engineering late in his last try.  He is a late runner who’ll need some pace help, but you’ll get some value here.  #10 EMPTY TOMB is a potential pace player who has pedigree. He is by 12% debut sire Speightstown and his dam is a half to Furthest Land.  There’s reason to believe he can improve on the lawn.

#9 RUNNING ON ENTRY drops in class for trainer Jimmy Toner, who is 4 for his last 9 with maidens on turf dropping in for tags.  ($5.41 ROI).  She showed life early in her career and is a win candidate with a return to those performances.  #8 LUCKY LATKES got into serious trouble last time out at the top of the stretch and lost all chance.  She should get some pace to run at in this spot and that’s enough to give her an extra look.  #4 COURTED is a speedster who got involved in hot paces in each of her last two.  Trainer Jorge Abreu’s barn is on fire and this gal gets a major upgrade at pilot.

SARATOGA MEET STATS: 204-47-32-33   $293.90