8/13: Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Analysis presented by NYRA Bets

SARATOGA – 8/13/2020
Nick Tammaro ~ @NTamm1215

#5 LUTESCOOT N BOOGIE apparently worked well with debut winner Lady Lilly and gets the tepid nod in a weak looking 2YO affair.  This filly is out of a dirt route winner but went for peanuts at auction as a weanling. This barn is rolling with 2YOs and is willing to try this gal against males for her unveiling.  #1 NUTSIE is by Exaggerator, who has 2 debut winners in his first crop.  The dam here was a stake winner and all four of her foals to race are winners.  The inside post is a negative but he has a terrific gate jockey aboard.  #3 BOSS BEAR is by Street Boss, a 17% debut sire and is out of a dam who won twice.  This colt worked decently at OBS April and has a string of strong gate works for a barn that has had a meet to remember.

Jockey David Cohen has one job on #2 KITTEN’S COVERGIRL and that is to get the early lead.  There is no early zip in this turf sprint and this daughter of Kitten’s Joy has shown enough zip in the past to get control.  She had no chance going long against the horses she faced last time and this is an ideal spot.  #1 OLENDON ran a vastly improved race last time out taking stablemate Lady Lawyer to the wire. She may have been helped by a damp turf course that afternoon but is a contender nonetheless in this spot.  #7 TURF WAR was helped by some moisture in the course last time but ended up being pace compromised.  She is going to have a hard time making up ground in this spot given the lack of pace.  She is worthy of inclusion, though, in a Pick 5 spread.

There’s no way you can have confidence in here, but #2 BLOOD MOON looks to be the one to catch for a barn that is doing much better now than it was when this colt ran last month.  The lead is likely his for the taking and forwardly placed trips are dominating 9 furlong races at this meet.  #4 FIRST RATE was an even fourth last time out in the same race the top pick exits and there’s an argument to be made that he was wide of the best paths that afternoon.  He goes 3^rd off a layoff for a barn that notched its first Spa win two weeks ago.  #6 GRIT AND GLORY enjoyed an ideal trip in the opener of the meet to get the top prize and now faces tougher.  His tactical speed is a weapon as he could inherit the lead if the top pick falters.

#11 BONUS BABY is by Flatter, who is generally a weak turf influence, but the dam of this filly is kin to 3 turf stake winners.  Among them was John B. Connally Turf Cup winner Swift Warrior, so there is a lot to like about this gal moving to the weeds.  #2 NEW YORK SUPREME is moving to turf and has pedigree for the lawn.  She was involved in a race with a hot pace last time off the bench and that obviously worked against her.  The dam here is kin to turf stake winner Miss Southern Miss, so there’s move-up potential on the grass.  #7 FRENCHIE FROU FROU belongs sprinting and is returning to her best trip.  She ran a sneaky good race two back as she spent the majority of the time trying to rally wide on a course where the rail was a lightning lane.

#1 RISKY MANDATE can be as clear of this field as jockey David Cohen chooses.  She is going long for the first time, but trainer Tom Amoss is 30% with dirt starters stretching out from sprints to routes over the last 5 years ($2.11 ROI).  #5 OFF TOPIC was awful in defeat last time out at Gulfstream but we seem to be at a point where every Todd Pletcher starter is a must use.  She figures to get a good stalking trip from the outside and has a major class edge on these rivals.  #3 INDY UNION rallied up the inside at Laurel last time out and that is never the best part of the racetrack.  She is a late runner who’ll need things to heat up on the front end, but she wants every bit of 9 furlongs and there are a few in here who could be wobbly late.

#8 I’M BLAMING YOU is a firster by Blame, whose progeny win on debut as 2YOs at a 13% clip.  This colt worked :10 and 1/5 at the OBS March sale on the wrong lead, but his pedigree screams turf on the dam side.  The dam was a 2x grass winner and she has dropped a 3x turf winner already.  #2 THIN WHITE DUKE is clearly the best of the experienced horses in this field.  He was an unlucky loser last time out when he closed well to snag the place dough after encountering brief traffic.  Any improvement off of that will get him to the winner’s circle.  #10 HULAINN is by Kantharos, an excellent and underrated win early and turf sire.  The dam here was a 2x turf winner and this barn scored with a debuting turf sprinter a week ago.

All signs point to #2 TURN OF EVENTS controlling this race on the front end.  He faces winners for the first time and trainer Mike Maker is 26% with turf routers exiting maiden wins ($2.21 ROI).  #5 BATTALION was a good second last time out when outfinishing a heavy favorite for the place dough.  He has improved in his last two starts and is in line to make noise if the top pick gets some early pressure.  #3 MANDATE was an impressive winner last time out with a perfect trip from off the pace for the meet’s leading trainer.  This is a big step up in class, but there’s some upside here.

#1 RATAJKOWSKI seems to fire every time she goes to the post and exits a game win at Belmont in the Critical Eye.  This gal has been effective from 6-9 furlongs and has the speed to get control from the inside.  If able to clear she will be very tough to beat.  #6 NEWLY MINTED returns from a layoff following a dull effort in the Heavenly Prize.  Her past exploits against NY breds and her ideal outside post make her a prime win candidate, but it’d be prudent to demand some value.  #5 CARRERA CAT has drawn a tough assignment for her return from a layoff.  This gal won this race in 2019 when she was in top form and is now fresh for a barn that has quietly had a terrific 2020.

#3 VIVAZANO is loaded with turf pedigree and should improve on the move to the weeds.  She has shown life on the main track and has the speed to get control and try to take this bunch coast to coast.  #10 DATA ANALYTICS returns off a lengthy layoff after debuting last fall on dirt.  There’s some 2^nd family turf pedigree, but that’s never really a concern with this barn given its success with dirt to turf movers.  #11 SAINTE MERE EGLISE gets one more try after racing too close to the pace last time out in her comeback from a layoff.  She should be wound a bit tighter today and the pace in here figures to be decent.

SARATOGA MEET STATS: 204-47-32-33   $293.90