8/12: Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Analysis presented by NYRA Bets

SARATOGA – 8/12/2020
Nick Tammaro ~ @NTamm1215

#3 ZOOM ZOOM ZOE was victorious on debut over the hurdles and looks to have upside given the strength of that performance.  #5 BRIANBAKESCOOKIES had success on the flat and that helps given the elongated run following the final fence.  #4 ANTICIPATING is another Jonathan Sheppard trainee who is in improving form.

Though it has been a rough go at the meet for the barn of Robertino Diodoro, #5 STRIKE THAT is supposed to win this race.  There’s little to no speed signed up and he can get control of the race right out of the gate.  Add to that he exits a race that was much deeper from top to bottom than this one.  #3 RELEASETHETHUNDER dominated against a woeful field last time out but was claimed that day by the red-hot Ray Handal.  This barn is 20% with dirt sprinters first off of claims ($2.70 ROI) and the leading jockey is aboard.  #1 TIZ HE THE ONE is another first off a claim as this late running son of Tiz Wonderful was hurt by a track that favored speedy types last time out.  Trainer Mike Maker is having a phenomenal meet but has so-so numbers with these types (16%, $0.92 1^st off of claims in dirt sprints).

#4 DARING DISGUISE is a career maiden but exits a solid second place finish in a race that has surprisingly proven to be strong.  He has speed and can be close throughout under an aggressive pilot.  This barn has also done great work at the meet.  #1 INSPECTOR HENNING is by 9% turf debut sire Shackleford and is out of a dam who was a 4x winner on turf.  This gelding is a needed fresh face in this field full of chronic losers.  #2 FLUENT IN SARCASM is a pace type who should be involved from the start, but he has had major stamina issues so far.  Irad Ortiz, Jr. gets on and he may be able to nurse this one along, but there are question marks.

Even as much as she has struggled with winning, #7 RADIANTRITHYM is the one to beat today.  She drops in class off a re-claim by Linda Rice and exits a good 3^rd place finish against much tougher.  The outside draw is ideal and her competition here is weak.  #3 FRIEND OF LIBERTY is another Linda Rice trainee who drops in class today.  This is her second start off a claim at this level and she had little chance last time out buried on the inside.  Her killer instinct makes her a dangerous horse as the only alternative to the top pick.  #6 TIED UP is a pace player first off a claim by Jeffrey Englehart.  This barn is 3 for its last 16 at Saratoga with a $2.42 ROI and the speed this mare possesses makes her a logical upset candidate.

#3 DIGITAL SOFTWARE takes the biggest class drop in racing for trainer Chad Brown and has faced considerably tougher in his first two outings.  This barn is an incredible 48% with MSW-MCL droppers in turf routes at Saratoga ($3.48 ROI).  #1A FREEDOM FORCE faced much tougher in his lone prior turf try and that came back a productive race from which the 1-2-3 finishers all won their next start.  He has speed and can be forwardly placed.  That’s always a positive around these parts.  #7 GUNMAN was entered in a MSW event to open Saturday’s card and got scratched to go in this maiden claimer.  He returns off a layoff after showing life on debut, and trainer Todd Pletcher is 23% with turf routers off 180+ day breaks, $2.54 ROI.

#7 ELOQUENT SPEAKER is a virtual cinch on paper on the cutback in distance given the two races she has run most recently.  She is drawn favorably on the outside and can stalk and pounce under the meet’s top pilot.  #4 FIGHT ON LUCY is the interesting exacta partner for the top pick as she cuts back in distance given this gal has always preferred sprinting.  She will be a square price and is likely to be ridden for a minor placing.  #2 SARATOGA BEAUTY is a pace player as she returns from a layoff for trainer Pat McBurney.  It won’t surprise if she gets loose early, but stamina will be the issue as McBUrney is on a 27 start losing streak with dirt sprinters off 180+ day breaks.

#3 JUSTINTIMEFORWINE is the likely pacesetter in this bulky field as he goes 2^nd off a layoff for trainer Amira Chichakly.  This colt set a robust pace last time out before tiring and the blinkers are now coming off.  That might help him relax and he should get a foothold on the fresh grass with the rails coming down here.  #12 SANDRO THE GREAT faced considerably tougher competition in his lone prior turf try and that makes him a major player here.  The outside post is no bargain, but given his style he’ll lay back and make one run.  #10 VOLIERO is a late runner who was up for 2^nd when he benefited from a big pace two back courtesy of the top pick.  You can draw a line through his last, and everything this barn starts is dangerous.

#6 HUNT THE FRONT might just be a bit better with Joel Rosario on board and could get a square pace to run at late in here.  He had no chance in the Blue Grass under optimal circumstances, and his rider burying him on a questionable rail was only a further hindrance.  Look for him late, especially if things heat up early.  #4 LIL COMMISSIONER is a pace player who turned heads in an impressive win last time out at Belmont.  He is versatile enough to sit just off the pace and distance is clearly no issue.  #8 SINGAPORE TRADER will be one of the pace players today from his outside post and he was best last time when beaten for 25k.  He forced a hot pace that day and looked home free before getting collared on the wire.

#4 THOUGHTFULLY walloped a weak field at Churchill Downs on debut and is now a likely favorite in a weak version of this race.  The most recent workout signals her readiness and she showed versatility on debut in rating just off the pace before moving.  #6 BEAUTIFUL FAREWELL was caught behind a wall of horses in crunch time last time out before making a meaningless late move once free.  She fits in this race in terms of speed figures, but that says more about her rivals than this daughter of Frosted.  #5 LUCIFERS LAIR crushed a MSW field on debut but did so in a ho-hum time while enjoying a perfect trip.  She may win right back but you’re getting no value here and this barn is not going to continue at a 30% clip at this meet.

#6 DEEPLY ANALYTICAL returns from a layoff for new trainer Jorge Abreu and will add blinkers today.  This barn has been on a tear and this daughter of Majestic City should be a major pace threat.  #4 MEBS WEB ran a bang-up race last time off a layoff and should move forward today.  The increased speed she showed is a weapon and a repeat of her last makes her a contender.  #7 AGGRAVATION goes 2^nd off a layoff after showing improvement on July 4.  She should be wound tighter 2^nd off the bench as most Mark Hennig trainees do and there’s value to be had here.

SARATOGA MEET STATS: 194-44-31-31   $279.40