7/26: Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Analysis presented by NYRA Bets

SARATOGA – 7/26/2020
Nick Tammaro ~ @NTamm1215

#8 SMITE set a very fast pace last time out before weakening late and now goes 2^nd off a layoff. He looms the one to catch today going a trip that can be conducive to frontrunning types.  It is worth noting that the winner from his last start came back to finish 2^nd against winners here on Saturday.  #6 MORE LIKE IT rallied boldly last time out to snag the place dough in an improved effort off his troubled turf debut.  He clearly has upside and will be in line to benefit if the top pick gets into a pace battle.  #5 SILVER TOKEN was just behind More Like It last time out when 3^rd at Belmont and is another going 2^nd off a layoff today.  He is a confirmed closer who’ll need pace help as well.

#6 EFFINITY is the lone experienced runner in this sextet as he goes out for the ice cold barn of Brad Cox.  He drew favorably on the outside and meets a group of firsters that lacks any with great appeal.  Look for him to graduate today in a particularly soft event for this class level.  #5 ARROWHEART is a firster by Hard Spun, whose progeny win on debut at a 9% clip. This colt is out of a 2YO debut winner who earned 50k on the racetrack and the worktab here looks solid.  He needn’t be much to contend for a share today.  #2 JUDGE N JURY debuts for trainer Danny Gargan, who picked up his first win at this meet on Saturday.  The dam of this colt was a multiple stake winner and she was unbeaten as a 2YO.

#6 CHANTRY FLATS received a hesitant ride in his first start off a layoff in mid-June and now gets a rider change to the pilot who was aboard for his maiden win last year.  This son of The Factor showed serious life against top notch MSW competition last year and will offer value today in a deep event for this class level.  #10 ROAD TO MEATH will be a big favorite today as he drops in for a tag as a new gelding for trainer Chad Brown.  He’s returning off a layoff today and could find himself in need of a race.  He sticks out on paper, but there’s no reason to take even money in this field.  #9 MANDATE made a solid late move last time out after racing wide the entire way.  He gets a rider change to Jose Ortiz today and showed last time that this is the right class level for this son of Blame.  A hot pace will help his chances.

If Brad Cox doesn’t get off the duck in the 2^nd then he will with #6 THE GREAT DANSKY.  That son of Majesticperfection was away from the gate poorly last time out and had to alter course in mid-stretch while trying to rally.  He faces a drastically weaker field today and figures to be involved from the outset.  #2 VICTORY BOULEVARDis a late running son of Dialed In who will need things to heat up in front of him.  He hails from a barn that has heated up significantly this week and this is a sizable drop in class.  The presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr. only adds to the appeal. #5 CRYPTOGRAPHER is another who does his best running late and he exits a respectable effort where he angled out very wide into the lane.  He gets a notable jockey change to Ricardo Santana, Jr. and should be a square price today.

#7 PITAMAN stayed in the field last time out when that race was rained off the turf and he now gets to what should end up being his preferred surface.  His stakes caliber dam has produced accomplished turfer Lemonist and progeny of Pioneerof the Nile win their turf debuts at a 15% clip.  This barn is due to get rolling.  #1      MAD MADDY has narrowly missed in each of her first two starts and now switches surfaces.  The 2^nd generation on his dam side has a couple of turf winners and progeny of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah have taken very nicely to the turf.  #2 OUTADORE is a firster by Outwork, who has not sired a turf debut winner, bu this colt is out of a mare who won on the lawn.  She has produced a couple of turf winners and they paid real money for this colt despite the modest pedigree.

#11 COST BENEFIT was an impressive winner on debut, as she set a fast pace and held off all challengers late.  She is the one to catch again today under leading rider Joel Rosario and faces a field that is hardly robust for this class level.  Look for her to get control from the start.  #6 WITEZ goes 3^rd off a layoff and drops in class for trainer Ian Wilkes.  This daughter of More Than Ready was a game 2^nd two back behind the graded stakes caliber Crystal Cliffs and should appreciate the return to the N1X ranks.  #1 JAZZIQUE faced elders last time out and now faces straight 3YOs again.  She is drawn favorably on the inside and can save ground behind the expected pacesetters.  If her last was a starting point for 2020, she is a candidate for improvement today.

In a skull-busting event, #9 CRYOGENIC gets the nod given his rebound last time out when victorious against Florida breds at Gulfstream.  He is a hard-knocking veteran who has been consistent sprinting on the turf.  He needs a bit of pace in front of him and should get it here in a race where the talent seems to be drawn towards the outside.  #8 FAST GETAWAY was a winner from the opening jump last time out, as he broke quickly and procured an ideal position just off the pace.  He rode the best part of the turf course to win by a comfortable margin.  Trainer Linda Rice now moves him into open company and he’s drawn a weaker than par field for this level.  He’s a threat because of his talent and proven form, but you’ll get no value.  #6 MORNING BREEZ steadied briefly around the turn last time out and that undoubtedly hurt his chances in a race dominated on the front end.  He can make noise here in his third start off a layoff at what should be an attractive price.

This is as interesting a N1X as you’ll find on this circuit and #5 BEAU LUMINARIE is a serious win candidate at a price.  This son of I Want Revenge hung late last time after enduring a brutal trip.  He was out of the gate poorly, then lingered at the back of the pack before unleashing a bold, wide move on the turn.  He gave up serious ground to the eventual winner, Locally Owned, who finished 3^rd here in a N2X Saturday afternoon.  #2 HAPPY SAVER was an impressive debut winner at Belmont last month and now takes the logical step up in class.  Trainer Todd Pletcher is just 2 for his last 17 with 2^nd time starting dirt routers in NY exiting maiden wins ($0.60 ROI) and this son of Super Saver will be a short price.  He is a favorite worth trying to beat.  #6 BASQUIAT was scorched in a hot pace last time out and now moves to a two-turn trip for trainer Chad Brown.  He should be close to the pace from the outset today and is training forwardly for this engagement.

Perhaps the one turn configuration at Belmont and the one mile trip are better for #1 SEISMIC WAVE, but he ran too well last time out to not be given serious consideration here.  He was steadied briefly early, made a huge move around the turn, reached the front and was outfinished by a deep closer from last.  There’ll be enough pace for him to run at in here and he will probably be the 4^th choice in this short field.  #2 GOOD GOVERNANCE is the one to beat given his comeback effort last time out at Belmont.  This British-bred son of Kingman is destined for Grade I objectives and has the versatility to lay close in the opening stages.  He should be set for improvement for a barn that is 27% with turfers in graded stakes exiting wins ($2.20 ROI).  #6 HALLADAY took advantage of circumstance on consecutive occasions in Florida and now faces tougher competition.  He walked on the lead over a speed-favoring course when last seen and will get more pace pressure today with better horses running at him late.  He’s worth using in the Pick 5 but is a bet against in the verticals.

#8 ECONOMIC POLICY drops in for a tag for Chad Brown off a troubled trip at Tampa Bay Downs.  Brown is a staggering 48% with maiden turfers dropping in for tags going long at the Spa ($3.48 ROI) and this gelding lost all chance on the turn last time out.  With a cleaner trip he can certainly get the job done.  #10 TURN OF EVENTS faced tougher last time out and now drops again in class.  Trainer Mike Maker has had a productive week with 3 wins, and this colt has the versatility to lay close to the pace early in here.  He looks to be the one to beat on paper.  #11 PRINCE OF CAPS moved forward a great deal in his turf debut and now goes 2^nd off a layoff as a new gelding.  He was ridden passively last time out and moved well in upper stretch, but he has the early foot to be forwardly placed today.

SARATOGA MEET STATS: 82-18-15-18         $124.70