Race 1- 1 st #7 COMPETITIVE HERO 2 ND #3 OCALA DREAM 3 RD #6 MARKET ALERT
When there’s little to go on, trust workouts and pedigrees and #7 COMPETITIVE HERO qualifies
in both categories. This colt’s dam is a half to NY bred stake winner Meese Rocks and progeny of Competitive Edge
win their 2YO debuts at a 21% clip. #3 OCALA DREAM is by freshman sire Effinex and worked :10 at the
OBS March sale. There’s one winner on the dam side and his workouts seem to be spirited. #6 MARKET
ALERT is by 11% debut sire D’Funnybone and is out of a mare who won her 2YO debut. The 6/7 drill signals
his readiness.
Race 2- 1 st #2 ALL OTHERS FOLLOW 2 ND #7 IN FRONT 3 RD #8 FORTUNA
There’s no value to be had with #2 ALL OTHERS FOLLOW, but she is clearly the one to beat. Her debut was
badly needed given how green she was, and a wide trip hurt as well. That race looks like it was better than par
for a Tampa MSW event, and her high percentage trainer is 34% with maiden turfers at Belmont going 10+
furlongs over the last five years ($2.66 ROI). #7 IN FRONT had no real excuse last time when soundly beaten,
but she went to the sidelines afterwards. Presumably something went wrong and she’s now back at a distance
that will suit her well. #8 FORTUNA is another getting more ground off of two non-descript efforts as a
juvenile. Her trainer’s barn has been hot in the last 45 days and Graham Motion is 20% with turf routers off
180+ day breaks ($2.47 ROI).
Race 3- 1 st #6 ARI’S NAUGHTY LUCA 2 ND #7 OTHER THINGS EQUAL 3 RD #9 BEARS MAFIA
#6 ARI’S NAUGHTY LUCA is the logical alternative to the likely heavy favorite #7 OTHER THINGS EQUAL.
The former exits a narrow miss at six panels when he set a robust pace before being tagged on the wire. The
task of setting the pace likely won’t fall on his shoulders today and he can stalk and pounce under the double
bug. The aforementioned ‘Equal is taking a huge drop in class second off a claim. Trainer Steve Asmussen is
4 for his last 11 with NYRA dirt starters dropping 50% in claiming price ($3.74 ROI) and this son of Hard Spun
is spotted where he can be successful. #9 BEARS MAFIA was no match early for a swift wire-to-wire winner
on opening week and now drops a notch in class 2 nd off the bench. His outside post and overwhelmingly
passive pilot mean a stalking trip is in the offing and he can be dangerous from there.
Race 4- 1 st #6 HOFFENHEIM 2 ND #3 LEITONE 3 RD #1 SHADOW RIDER
#6 HOFFENHEIM drops significantly in class as he returns from a brief break and his last race is not as bad as
it looks on paper. He ran in spots and faced much tougher that day while doing so off a nearly 9 month layoff.
This is the right spot class-wise and he is a fair alternative to #3 LEITONE. That former Jason Servis trainee
now returns for Rob Atras, whose numbers with dirt claimers off trainer changes are just fair (24%, $1.40 ROI).
This son of Dunkirk is the clear speed and should be alone on the front end, but he looked to be sliding the
wrong direction for his prior trainer, and the ex-Servis runners have been dull thus far. #1 SHADOW RIDER is
a late runner who loves Belmont (9-15 lifetime ITM) and he was in an impossible spot last time pace-wise.
That prompted but the bug boy to get him more involved early and wrecked his chances late. A fairly run race
will make him a major player.
Race 5- 1 ST #6 MORALITY CLAUSE 2 ND #7 MISS YOU BLUES 3 RD #4 YELLEN
#6 MORALITY CLAUSE is intereting off the layoff as she drops in class for Ray Handal. This barn is good
with turfers off long breaks and this filly showed signs of life last year facing much tougher. You’ll get some
value here in a race where the favorites don’t inspire confidence. #7 MISS YOU BLUES is the one to beat as
she also comes back from a layoff and her worktab looks very solid. The concern is that Charlton Baker’s barn
has been dull so far at the meet and is poor off long layoffs. What can’t be ignored is that this gal had a lot go
against her in prior turf sprint tries. #4 YELLEN comes in from Turfway after a couple of synthetic tries and
gets back to the surface she prefers. Her tactical speed and aggressive pilot should ensure an ideal trip.
Race 6- 1 st #3 QUEEN KAHEN 2 ND #7 EXCESS CAPACITY 3 RD #2 MO FLASH
#3 QUEEN KAHEN will likely end up favored in here as she changes surfaces and takes a sizable drop in
class. Any of her last 8 dirt races would be good enough to win this and her new rider and ample early speed
only inspire more confidence. #7 EXCESS CAPACITY changes surfaces and cuts back to a trip that is ideal
for her. This versatile daughter of Malibu Moon has been effective on dry and wet tracks and should be able to
sit and make one run on the cutback today. She looms the clearest alternative to the top pick. #2 MO FLASH
was helped by a wet surface last time out when she elevated her game to win a 32k event over Excess
Capacity. She showed increased speed that day, and a similar trip would help her cause in here.
Race 7- 1 st #7 OUT OF TROUBLE 2 ND #5 VIP NATION 3 RD #11 A LITTLE FAITH
This is the kickoff leg of a 2-day $1 Pick 5 and #7 OUT OF TROUBLE looks like one you can lean on in that
bet. Getting back to her preferred surface and an ideal distance will help her greatly, and she’s always done
her best work in New York. The drop in for a tag is no concern given they did the same thing here last fall. #5
VIP NATION is the one to catch given her ample early speed and she has previously faced much tougher on
the weeds in NY including Bareeqa, Wish Upon and Belle of the Spa. The layoff is the big worry, but her
aggressive pilot will have her involved from the start. #11 A LITTLE FAITH was compromised by a slow pace
last time out but really didn’t do much running. She is drawn ideally for what both she and her rider want to do,
stalk the pace and move in upper stretch and there should be marked improvement from 3 years-old to four.
Race 8- 1 st #8 KAZMANIA 2 ND #6 SUMMER BOURBON 3 RD #2 LEAKY CUP
#8 KAZMANIA was glued to the rail late last time out and that was not the place to be late on the Valentine’s
Day card. He now comes back with an outside post and blinkers, which should enable him to be in an ideal
stalking spot. You’ll get real value here given the low percentage connections as well. #6 SUMMER
BOURBON faced a salty group of 40k sellers last time out and was compromised by a slow pace. There are
two entrants in here set to spar early and that will greatly help this son of Ghostzapper. While his last pilot did
nothing wrong, you want horses with this style to have Joel Rosario. #2 LEAKY CUP is dangerous in that he
can get loose in here should #4 STEAM ENGINE not be asked for speed early. That son of Central Banker
nearly wired the race the top pick exits and he has been unfortunate in landing in 4 straight races which
featured strong early fractions.
Race 9- 1 st #4 GUILDSMAN 2 ND #7 CHIMNEY ROCK 3 RD #5 TURNED ASIDE
#4 GUILDSMAN has had trouble in both of his North American outings and now gets some extra ground to
work with today. He was steadied midway through a 5.5 furlong heat at Churchill that’s common among 3
entrants in here. When he was finally clear in upper stretch he flew home, which leads you to believe he can
be very dangerous with a clean trip. #7 CHIMNEY ROCK is the likeliest winner given he should be in range of
an expected decent early pace at a distance over which he has previously shown success. His trainer broke a
1-20 skid to start the meet with two wins here on Thursday. #5 TURNED ASIDE comes back from a lengthy
layoff after showing 2YO form that’s good enough to contend for top honors in here. The concerns are his
trainer’s poor record off of long layoffs and slow start to the meet, but you’re going to get a square price here.
Race 10- 1 st #10 TOPAZ BRIDE 2 ND #12 LUCKY LATKES 3 RD #11 ROZIERE
The balance of power in this field is towards the outside and #10 TOPAZ BRIDE appears to be the one to
beat. Dropping in for a tag off a layoff, she returns to a surface over which she ran a solid race on debut.
Trainer Mike Maker is 28% with turf routing maidens dropping in for tags over the last five years ($2.51 ROI).
#12 LUCKY LATKES is a firster by Lookin at Lucky, whose progeny win at a 14% clip when moving to turf.
This filly has four siblings to win on the weeds and one of the best first-out trainers in the game. Give her a
long look in a bad field. #11 ROZIERE is a late runner looking to better a solid closing effort when last seen in
2019. This normally high percentage barn is struggling at the current meet, but it’s impossible to deny the win
credentials this filly possesses.
BELMONT MEET STATS: 100-20-13-11 $129.50
