Race 1- 1st #3 RIVER TIBER 2ND #8 ALDA 3RD #4 SEGURO
We’re still at the time of year where you start handicapping these races by conceding them to Wesley Ward
and #3 RIVER TIBER looks to be the best of his pair entered. This son of War Front is a half to 2015 BC
Juvenile Turf winner Hit It A Bomb and appears to be training well. #8 ALDA is by 15% debut sire Munnings
and is a half to a Group 2 turf winner overseas. Graham Motion rarely starts 2YOs this early, but this one is
clearly ahead of the curve and drew favorably on the outside to stalk and pounce. #4 SEGURO is the only
runner in the field with experience, and this trainer and jockey nearly combined for a huge upset in last
Thursday’s opener. Progeny of Orb win their turf debuts at a 9% clip and this filly is out of a 3x turf winner who was stakes-placed so the grass just might be greener.
Race 2- 1st #7 MY LAST MILLION 2ND #7 BERTRANDA 3RD #4 LETMETAKETHISCALL
It’s easy to say that this race will be won by either #4 LETMETAKETHISCALL or #8 BERTRANDA given the
class and speed figure edge they have over their rivals. However, #7 MY LAST MILLION is in the right spot
class-wise after being repeatedly tried against NY bred allowance company. She is a late runner who’ll get a
lively pace to run at and has the services of bug boy Luis Cardenas to throw a weight break in the mix as well.
The aforementioned Bertranda rode the best part of the racetrack to win last time out and now looks to
duplicate that off a claim. While this conditioner is more than capable, the barn she left hits at a high
percentage in dirt claiming races, and the circumstances may not be as favorable for this mare today.
Letmetakethiscall is another racing off what could be perceived as a negative claim. With due respect to her
new conditioner, the Mike Miceli barn has been on a tear, specifically for owner Lawrence Roman. This gal
has ample early speed but her rider has usually does his best to take that out of all of his mounts.
Race 3- 1st #7 CREATIVE STYLE 2ND #5 LONG MAY YOU RUN 3RD #1 COLTANDMISSISSIPPI
#7 CREATIVE STYLE roared home to win last time at 5/2 against weaker and did so with no particular pace
setup or other trip-related occurrence. He now cuts back in distance and lands in a field 25k sellers that
enables his trainer to protect him from the claim box. A rival battling with #5 LONG MAY YOU RUN would
help the Eddie Barker trainee. ‘Run comes in from Parx for Jamie Ness (0-14, 2 ITM) who has struggled
mightily in NY over the last 5 years. This son of City Zip is the one to catch and comes in with strong recent
form. Expect him to be aggressively ridden here. #1 COLTANDMISSISSIPPI was claimed for the 5th time in 7
starts when last seen back in January. He’s drawn poorly today but is a good fit class-wise. His best dirt races
have come when he’s been able to lay back and make one run into hot paces, which seems unlikely here. His
class makes him one you have to use.
Race 4- 1st #1-1A KING OF RANCH/PRETENDANT 2ND #5 TORRES DEL PAINE 3RD #4 ARITHMETIC
The Paradise Farms Corp entry of #1 KING OF RANCH and #1A PRETENDANT looks to be in a prime spot
today. Each are capable of winning and enter in good form from their winter says in Florida. The former has a
bit more speed and can lay close to the pace under Jose Ortiz, while the latter should be moving late. #5
TORRES DEL PAINE drops in class off of a dull effort on the POlytrack at Turfway in March. That race was
too bad to be believed, but the drop in for a tag doesn’t inspire a great deal of confidence. Nonetheless, this
son of Karakontie’s prior turf races make him a great fit in this spot and the last running line will ensure he
offers value at the windows. #4 ARITHMETIC was the beneficiary of one of the greatest trips a horse could
ever get when he won last time out. Rest assured it’s pronounced Uh-RYTH-Muh-tic if you watch the replay as
that eluded the GP caller. When push comes to shove, he’s gonna be getting serious money based on
dressed up running lines and those are the kinds of horses we try to beat.
Race 5- 1ST #1-1A LOTTIE/QUEEN 2ND #13 CHARLOTTE WEBLEY 3RD #11 KEFALIANI
#1 LOTTIE’S MIZZION is good enough to get the job done herself, but if #1A QUEENOFEVERYTHING gets
into the race then she is the one to beat. The former had a tough trip last time out when away from the gate
slowly before she made a meaningful late move to round out the trifecta. That was her dirt debut and she
showed signs of life that often portend additional improvement. The latter as the best running lines of any
participant in here and would be ideally drawn to stalk and pounce while in light. #13 CHARLOTTE WEBLEY
drops in class for a barn that is struggling mightily in these parts. Trainer Jeremiah Englehart is 3 for his last
79 at NYRA tracks, but he’s spotting this one realistically and she gets the circuit’s top jock today. Her only
way to go is to show speed and try not to look back. #11 KEFALIANI is a late runner who improved in her
most recent start. She was getting a big jockey change that day and retains Eric Cancel here, but the slop
could also have helped her cause. Either way, she ends up a must use in here as this group lacks quality.
Race 6- 1st #2 BEAU BELLE 2ND #9 ELIADE 3RD #10 NOOR SAHARA
#2 BEAU BELLE is spotted perfectly in terms of distance and class today as she exits the Orchid at
Gulfstream. This daughter of Giant’s Causeway showed early interest that afternoon before weakening and
now meets substantially softer foes. She has the speed to be within range early, loves a bit of give in the turf
and gets a massive upgrade at pilot. #9 ELIADE looks to be the more interesting of the Chad Brown Euro
shippers only because she’ll be a bigger price. This gal ended her 2019 campaign in style with a win over
repeat winner Think of Me. She should suit American style racing given her affinity for firm turf and her recent
works look promising. #10 NOOR SAHARA has the class edge on her stablemate one door in, and this gal
looks to have potentially been a bleeder. The Lasix will help that here and there’s no doubt the competition
today falls well short of what she faced in group events in France.
Race 7- 1st #6 ALLURE FORTUNE 2ND #9 VOICE OF SPRING 3RD #11 JEWEL OF ARABIA
While it is impossible to get excited about a Jeremiah Englehart trainee, #6 ALLURE FORTUNE simply ran too
well on debut to go elsewhere in here. She got involved in a wicked hot pace before being collared late and
now loses the blinkers off the long break. Even though his numbers aren’t as strong in this category recently,
Englehart is 21% with dirt starters off 180+ day breaks over the last 5 years ($2.03 ROI). #9 VOICE OF
SPRING is a firster by Commissioner who fetched 450k at the OBS March sale last year after working :21.
She could end up being a bit of a long-winded type, but her dam is a half to multiple NY bred stake winner
Willet, so there’s sprint ability in the genes. #11 JEWEL OF ARABIA lugged out late last time out and
subsequently went to the shelf for 10 months. That hardly inspires confidence, especially when you’re talking
about one of the choices in this competitive bunch. She is a major player for top honors based on her first two
outings, but don’t concede the race to her by any means.
Race 8- 1st #5 FORTUNE’S FOOL 2ND #2 CHEWING GUM 3RD #1 SAYYAAF
#5 FORTUNE’S FOOL is the one to catch in here given he can out-foot the other speed in the opening strides.
This son of Arch ran a bang-up race in his lone turf try as he contested a hot pace and stayed in the mix to the
finish. If able to get clear today he can take them the distance, and this underrated barn looks to soon break
out of the doldrums of 2020. #2 CHEWING GUM is the one to beat as he gets another sixteenth of a mile to
work with this afternoon. He was pounded at the windows last time when cutting back in distance, and 5.5fs
was never going to be optimal for him. His trainer is the public’s darling and his horses are routinely overbet,
so don’t expect to get any value here. #1 SAYYAAF is nothing special despite the fact that he’s been 9/5 or
less in 7 straight races. He made no real move when 5th last time out at 4/5 and now returns to sprinting off a
layoff. The inside post will do him no favors, as he’ll have to be ridden aggressively to hold his position. If the
top pick beats him to the punch early, that might be “all she wrote.”
Race 9- 1st #4 BUILD TO SUIT 2ND #7 MR. BUFF 3RD #1 BANKIT
While there’s no doubt this is #7 MR. BUFF’s race to lose, the circumstances may work well for #4 BUILD TO
SUIT. That son of Dominus has always been at his best fresh (101 BSF off 14 month layoff in January 2019)
and he regularly rallied into slow paces going shorter last year. The mile is the unknown with him, but he is a
completely different horse now than when he tried it on Belmont week in 2017. The aforementioned Mr. Buff is
clearly the king of NY breds as he had a dazzling winter going 3-3 and turning heads with efforts that were
each more impressive than the prior one. He is the one to catch in here and will continue to stand at the
mountaintop of NY breds until someone removes him. #1 BANKIT competed well against open company all
winter in Arkansas and now returns to the friendly confines of NY bred company. He has been effective at
Belmont in the past and the cutback to a one-turn mile stands to help his cause. If Mr. Buff gets some
competition on the front end, which is quite possible, this son of Central Banker stands to benefit.
Race 10- 1st #8 ASTRONAUT 2ND #3 SANDRO THE GREAT 3RD #11 AMANO
#8 ASTRONAUT clearly took to turf last time out when he checked in 2nd behind perfect trip winner Gray’s
Fable. This colt’s pedigree is loaded with turf and he still has tremendous potential for this wildly frustrating
trainer. The fact he showed some positional speed last time is encouraging as he can be forwardly placed in
here. #3 SANDRO THE GREAT is a second timer moving to the turf who has oodles of pedigree for the
weeds. This colt is out of a stakes-winning mare who earned all four of her career wins on grass. She is a half
to turf winners Stephen’s Revenge and Our Golden Dream as well as the venerable Icabad Crane. #11
AMANO was bet on debut like the race had already been run. He wound up disappointing for Chad Brown
and now looks to redeem himself over more ground. A cleaner break could lead to a more forwardly placed
trip and that would help his chances.
BELMONT MEET STATS: 50-12-4-9 $78.50