PENN NATIONAL

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: 1st Penn Ladies Dash, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Outstanding card, and specifically the all turf/all stakes P4, threatened by weather..

Given the depth of the rest of the sequence, you would like to slip by this first leg with just Morticia and Just Talkin..

Most Likely: #6 Morticia 5-2
Next Best: #8 Just Talkin 7-2
Best Value: #2 Rocky Policy 10-1
Exotics Use: #4 Assail 8-1

7th: 6th Penn Oaks, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD)

VERY well-matched group with the favorites not all that more likely than the prices..

Best Value: #4 Raucous 5-1
Next Best: #1e Dubb ownership entry 2-1
Exotics Use: #5 Treasuring 5-2
Super Add: #6 Goodthingstaketime 3-1

8th: 48th PA Governor’s Cup, 3+, 5f-T (P3, DD)

Pure Sensation a huge SCR out this. May not be enough speed to help Kate Demasi’s Dubini (10-1) get up, but he’s 4 for 6 at the 5f trip and the price I want to use to boost vertical plays. Demasi is one of the best kept training secrets around..

Most Likely: #10 Ray’s Warrior 10-1
Best Value: #4 Dubini 10-1
Next Best: #3 Oak Bluffs 5-1
Exotics Use: #11 Triple Burner 10-1

9th: 6th Penn Mile (G2), 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Silly ML on Hawkish who should sit a rocking chair trip behind the speed. Maraud obvious off eye-opening American Turf score. Weaver goes 1st Lasix in 2nd off break with Way Early and he’s hit 7 boards in 9 tries with that move (2 W’s)..

Most Likely: #6 Hawkish 5-1
Next Best: #3 Maraud 5-2
Best Value: #5 Way Early 10-1
Exotics Use: #4 Therapist 3-1

P4 Grid:

6: 6-8 (A), – (B), 2-4-7-9 (C)
7: 1-4-5 (A), 2-3-6 (B), – (C)
8: 4-10 (A), 3-11 (B), 6-7-9 (C)
9: 3-5-6 (A), – (B), 2-4-7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

CHURCHILL ‘DOWNS AFTER DARK’

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

$300k partial jackpot P6 force out starts here..

Most Likely: #5 Divine Desire 4-1
Next Best: #7 King Abner 5-2
Best Value: #3 Taruca 8-1

5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Awe Emma the famed $2,000,000 KEE November Sale weanling (War Front/Awesome Maria) that Willis Horton bought shortly after Take Charge Brandi fetched $6,000,000. Long string of works for what Asmussen undoubtedly wants to make a successful debut..

Most Likely: #1 Awe Emma 2-1
Next Best: #4 Pachinko 5-2
Best Value: #3 Don’t Tell Marge 6-1
Exotics Use: #2 Tofino 4-1

6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Absence of a clear pacesetter..

Most Likely: #4 Irish Freedom 5-2
Next Best: #1 Krewe Chief 5-2
Exotics Use: #3 Big Dollar Bill 2-1
Super Add: #2 Hollywood Handsome 7-2

7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Complimenti 6-1
Next Best: #4 Gliztnglamour 8-5
Exotics Use: #6 The Girl Factor 3-1
Super Add: #3 Thesweetesttaboo 8-1

8th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Yeesh.. Whole field of lightly-raced turf fillies is separated by about 4 lengths.

Best Value: #1 Don’t Stop Maria 6-1
Next Best: #7 Victory Garden 3-1
Exotics Use: #3 Flat Meadow 5-2
Super Add: #5 First Kiss 12-1

9th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Mississippi runs alone after SCR of Solomini..

Most Likely: #1 Mississippi 3-5
Best Value: #5 Fort Peck 8-1
Next Best: #7 Limation 10-1
Exotics Use: #4 Mr Freeze 12-1

P6 Grid:

4: 5-7 (A), – (B), 1-3-6 (C)
5: 1-4 (A), 3 (B), 2-5-7 (C)
6: 1-4 (A), 2-3 (B), 5-6 (C)
7: 2-4 (A), – (B), 3-7 (C)
8: 1-7 (A), 3-5 (B), 2-4-6 (C)
9: 1-5 (A), – (B), 4-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x2x4x2 = 256 x .20 = $51.20
All A’s: 2x2x2x2x2x2 = 64 x .20 = $12.80

10th: 30th Aristides (G3), 3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Mr. Crow 5-2
Next Best: #3 Wilbo 9-5
Best Value: #7 Chief Cicatrix 6-1
Exotics Use: #6 Awesome Saturday 7-2

11th: 3rd Mighty Beau, 3+, 5f-T (Hi-5)

Has SCR’d down to 6 rendering ML irrevelant..

Most Likely: #6 The Critical Way
Next Best: #3 Long On Value
Best Value: #8 Fort Fortitude
Exotics Use: #10 Hogy

P5 Grid:

7: 2-4 (A), – (B), 3-7 (C)
8: 1-7 (A), 3 (B), 2-4-5-6 (C)
9: 1-5 (A), – (B), 4-7 (C)
10: 3-5 (A), 1-6-7 (B), – (C)
11: 3-6 (A), – (B), 8-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x5x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16

P4 Grid:

8: 1-3-7 (A), – (B), 2-4-5-6 (C)
9: 1-5 (A), – (B), 4-7 (C)
10: 3-5-7 (A), 1-6 (B), – (C)
11: 3-6 (A), 8-10 (B), 5-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x5x4 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

Good luck!
Steve