SARATOGA
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: 21st A.P. ‘Paddy’ Smithwick (G1), 4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD)
Want to try solid but never spectacular Diplomat who may be in right form at the right time for Kate & Bernie Dalton. Import Modem was fairly well rated in UK and might be better than currrent domestic cast. Colonel John brother Mr. Hot Stuff a vulnerable fave, but won this 4 years ago and certainly good enough on best. Andi’amu a sentimental exotics include for Leslie Young who soldiers on with husband Paddy on the arduous mend after devastating spring incident..
Best Value: #6 Diplomat 12-1
Next Best: #10 Modem 5-1
Exotics Use: #9 Charminster 6-1
Super Add: #4 Andi’amu 20-1
2nd: MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)
DePaz os 4/7 ($5.63) going turf/dirt, 2/4 second off layoff ($3.75) and drops Annapolis Class to boot. Bobby Ribaudo (Tarquinia) another with positive ROI going lawn to loam ($2.06)..
Best Value: #6 Annapolis Class 12-1
Next Best: #1 Tarquinia 9-2
Exotics Use: #3 Bixby Lou 5-2
Super Add: #5 Marie Joelle 6-1
3rd: MCLM/$75k, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (7f) (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #1 Maddy’s Way
Next Best: #3 Jonquil
4th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 Hard Hitter 7-2
Best Value: #7 Swift One 6-1
Next Best: #8 At Guard 5-2
Exotics Use: #1 Pirellone 12-1
5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD)
Best Value: #9 Sweet Offer 12-1
Next Best: #3 Puttinyouonthenews 3-1
Next Best: #1 Talk Softly 9-2
Exotics Use: #8 Mermaid of Honor 12-1
6th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)
Best Value: #11 Rprettyboyfloyd
Next Best: #2 Toohottooevenspeak
Exotics Use: #12 Baratti
Super Add: #7 Taste for Talent
OFF/TURF P5 Play:
2: 1-3-6
3: 1-3
4: 4-7
5: 3-9
6: 2-5-7-11-12
3x2x2x2x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
OFF/TURF P4 Play:
3: 1-3-5-6
4: 4-7
5: 3-9
6: 2-5-7-11-12
4x2x2x5 = 80 x .50 = $40
7th: OC/N3X, 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #2 Tom’s d’Etat 5-2
Next Best: #5 Bellamy Way 9-2
Exotics Use: #4 Far From Over 3-1
Super Add: #3 Bodhisattva 12-1
8th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #6 Blue Bahia 3-1
Next Best: #8 Ancient Secret 2-1
Best Value: #7 Rocky Policy 12-1
Exotics Use: #1 Blip n’ Th Bye 6-1
9th: 14th John Morrissey-NY, 3+, 6.5f (DD)
Unbelievable group with 6 exiting victories while accounting for 24 wins combined JUST THIS YEAR. While one or two of the pressers could stay on, feels like you have to play this to collapse with all the pace involved. Potential for wet complicates matters further..
Most Likely: #10 Papa Shot 9-2
Best Value: #9 Eye Luv Lulu 15-1
Next Best: #12 Celtic Chaos 6-1
Exotics Use: #8 Candid Desire 20-1
10th: CLM, 3yo-F, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF
Best Value: #1 Owesaycanyousee
Next Best: #10 Romantic Music
Exotics Use: #12 Unbridled Adventure
P5 Grid:
6: 2-11-12 (A), – (B), 5-7 (C)
7: 2-5 (A), – (B), 1-3-4 (C)
8: 6 (A), – (B), 8 (C)
9: 9-10-12 (A), 5-6-8 (B), – (C)
10: 1-10 (A), 12 (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x2x1x6x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A’s: 3x2x1x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
P4 Grid:
7: 2-5 (A), 1-3-4 (B), – (C)
8: 6 (A), – (B), 8 (C)
9: 5-6-7-8-9-10-12 (A), – (B), 3-4-5-11 (C)
10: 1-10 (A), 12 (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 5x1x7x3 = 70 x .50 = $35
All A’s: 2x1x7x2 = $28 ($14 for .50)
Good luck!
Steve
