Cold, wet day at the Downs for Oaks and hopes for a cleaner Derby forecast have not materialized.. The early situation is detailed below and looks impossible now that track won’t be wet by 6:46p feature post. Turf holding up well though and the grass stakes should be terrific. Other than strong rail opportunities, (utilized by Mena for instance on the Wes Hawley 30-1 ALW upsetter), main track was pretty fair as evidenced by the Abel Tasman’s wide last-to-first Oaks rally under Mike Smith. No monster scores Friday, but a few helpful pops, especially the early P3, made for an OK wagering day. Hope everyone did well. Let’s make the most of Derby Day!
TRACK: SLOPPY
TURF: GOOD (Lane 1, on the hedge)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST: Periods of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3 p.m.. High near 60. West wind 8-to-11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
CHURCHILL DOWNS
POST-SCRATCHES (10:20a)
1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #2 Saved by the Swell 7-2 4th
Next Best: #3 Seventh Tee 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #6 No Fault 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Gulf View 8-1 6th
2nd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 Awesome Saturday 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Donwell 8-1 4th
Next Best: #8 No Mo Dough 4-1 WON ($19.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Salute With Honor 3-1 6th
3rd: $100k/OC, 3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)
Very strange group of horses including ’15 & ’16 Derby alumni Far Right & Mo Tom..
Best Value: #1 Flashy Jewel 8-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Rocket Time 5-1 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Wabel 10-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Far Right 10-1 3rd
4th: MSW, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #6 Perfect Partner 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Souper Fly Over 3-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Oklahoma View 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #1 Caviar Czar 7-2 WON ($8.20)
5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #1 FORGE 7-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Long Ago 15-1 11th
Next Best: #11 Hockey School 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Sir Dudley Diggs 4-1 WON ($9.40)
P4 Grid:
2: 2-4-7-8 (A), – (B), 1-6 (C)
3: 1-2-3-5 (A), 4-6-7-8 (B), – (C)
4: 5-6 (A), 1-4-7 (B), 3 (C)
5: 1 (A), – (B), 4-5-11 (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x8x5x1 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A’s: 4x4x2x1 = 32 x .50 = $16
6th: Humana Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #7 Carina Mia 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Finest City 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Lightstream 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Paulassilverlining 7-2 WON ($7.60)
7th: Distaff Turf Mile (G1), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)
Miss Temple City has SCR’d..
Most Likely: #6 Roco Rojo 3-1 WON ($4.60)
Next Best: #1 Linda 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Prize Exhibit 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Believe in Bertie 6-1 2nd
P5 Grid:
3: 1-3-5 (A), – (B), 2-4-6-7-8 (C)
4: 5-6 (A), 1-4 (B), 3-7 (C)
5: 1 (A), – (B), 4-5-11 (C)
6: 2-5-6-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 6 (A), 1-8 (B), 4-7-8 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x4x1x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x1x4x1 = 24 x .50 = $12
8th: Pat Day Mile (G3), 3yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #8 Wild Shot 4-1 WON ($19.40)
Best Value: #9 Excitations 10-1 11th
Next Best: #5 No Dozing 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Sonic Mule 10-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Uncontested 5-1 3rd
P4 Grid:
5: 1 (A), – (B), 4-5-11 (C)
6: 5-7 (A), 2-6 (B), – (C)
7: 1-6-8 (A), – (B), 3-4-7 (C)
8: 4-5-8-9-11 (A), 1-2-10-12-13 (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 1x4x3x10 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 1x2x3x5 = 30 x .50 = $15
9th: American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 Kitten’s Cat 5-1 9th
Best Value: #2 Big Score 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Oscar Performance 7-2 10th
Exotics Use: #10 Good Samaritan 5-1 2nd
10th: Churchill Downs (G2), 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #1 Awesome Slew 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 Denman’s Call 8-1 11th
Best Value: #13 Tom’s Ready 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Masochistic 5-2 13th
Super Add: #8 El Kabeir 6-1 7th
11th: Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)
As compelling as the Derby..
Most Likely: #2 Divisidero 4-1 WON ($9.00)
Best Value: #3 Oscar Nominated 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Beach Patrol 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Conquest Panthera 8-1 8th
12th: 143rd Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD)
As always, a wonderful 2 weeks in Louisville, typically my favorite part of the broadcast year. I hope everyone garnered info they feel is helping them approach the most unique event in our game.
As discussed during coverage, while there’s always potential for chaos, 20% of the field – the 4 top betting choices (Always Dreaming, Irish War Cry, Classic Empire, McCraken) – look much more likely to win than the other 16. Before assuming an implausible winner, remember that any of those $10-$16 players will still help produce potentially outlandish returns. I always stick with the top choice I make 10 days out for the Xpressbet Derby Wagering Guide and McCraken remains for me a prime candidate for the rose blanket for all the reasons that I’ve brought out.
Always Dreaming could wing his way around the oval War Emblem style and I’ve elevated Irish War Cry and Practical Joke into the top 4 on the strength of their outstanding appearances here in Louisville. And while there are a number of late runners (Lookin At Lee, Hence, Gunnevara) that will challenge for the bottom rungs of the tri/super/Hi-5, Sonneteer is the one I’m publishing given the company he’s kept without winning and his track-skipping mornings at The Downs. I’ll respect the Godolphin entrant defensively. Hence, State of Honor, Battle of Midway & Classic Empire will be on my tri tickets.
Enjoy Derby.. Safe trips.. Good luck to all!
Most Likely: #15 McCraken 5-1 (Current 6-1) 8th
Next Best: #5 Always Dreaming 5-1 (Current 9-2) WON ($11.40)
Best Value: #19 Practical Joke 20-1 (Current 32-1) 5th
Exotics Use: #17 Irish War Cry 6-1 (Current 5-1) 10th
Super Add: #2 Thunder Snow 20-1 (Current 17-1) DNF
Hi-5 Play: #12 Sonneteer 50-1 (Current 36-1) 16th
.50 TRIFECTA: Key 15 1st/2nd with 2-5-12-17-19 with 1-2-5-6-8-9-10-11-12-14-16-17-19 (1x5x12 = 60 x .50 = $30 x 2 = $60)
Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3 Grid:
KO: 4 (A), 7 (B), 1-8-10-13 (C)
WR: 1-2-3-4-6-12 (A), – (B), 8-9 (C)
KD: 5-15-17-19 (A), – (B), 2-6-11-14 (C)
Simple (A+B): 2x6x4 = $48 ($24 for .50)
All A’s: 1x6x4 = $24 ($12 for .50)
$1 OAKS/WDFRD/DERBY P3 (13-2-5) Paid $87.75
Oaks-Derby Double Grid:
KO: 4 (A), 7 (B), 1-8-10-13 (C)
KD: 5-15-17-19 (A), 2-6-11-14 (B), 1-8-16-18 (C)
Simple (A+B): 2×8 = $16
All A’s: 1×4 x $5 = $20
$1 OAKS/DERBY DBL (13-5) Paid $73.00
P5 Grid:
8: 4-5 (A), 8-9-11 (B), 10-12 (C)
9: 2-4-5 (A), – (B), 1-9-10 (C)
10: 1-12-13 (A), 2-8 (B), – (C)
11: 2-3 (A), – (B), 1-4-6-8-11-12 (C)
12: 15 (A), – (B), 2-5-17-19 (C)
Simple (A+B): 5x3x5x2x1 = $150 x .50 = $75
All A’s: 2x3x3x2x1 = $36 x .50 = $18
P4 Grid:
9: 2-4-5 (A), – (B), 1-9-10 (C)
10: 1-12-13 (A), 2-8 (B), – (C)
11: 2-3 (A), – (B), 1-4-6-8-11-12 (C)
12: 5-15 (A), 2-17-19 (B), 6-8-11-12-14 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x5 = $150 x .50 = $75
All A’s: 3x3x2x2 = $36 x .50 = $18
13th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 6.5f (DD)
Best Value: #2 Visionary Tale 8-1 WON ($8.60)
Next Best: #1a (POE) Hard Scramble 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Casse’s Story 5-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Rockin Rudy 2-1 5th
14th: MSW, 3+, 7f
Most Likely: #4 Souper Wish 2-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Bourbon Country 10-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Arch Cat 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Unk SCR
P4 Grid:
11: 2-3-8 (A), – (B), 4-6-11-12 (C)
12: 5-15-19 (A), 2-12-17 (B), 6-8-11-14 (C)
13: 1-2 (A), 8-9 (B), – (C)
14: 4-5 (A), – (B), 3-7-9/SCR-14 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x6x4x2 = $144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x3x2x2 = $36 x .50 = $18
