GULFSTREAM
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: OC/N1X, 3yo, 9f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Always Dreaming considered Fountain of Youth but instead takes this intermediate step toward likely Florida Derby try. Gamble’s Citizen from Josie Carroll can leap up as first time at 3/first time on dirt..
Most Likely: #1 Always Dreaming 1-1 WON ($2.20)
Best Value: #6 Gamble’s Citizen 12-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Lookin At Blessing 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Confederate 6-1 6th
Super/Hi-5: #3 Fire for Effect 10-1 4th
2nd: MSW, 3yo, 7.5f-T/0′ (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Tried good looker rough trip Sharm El Sheikh on Holy Bull Day and am concerned he’s a trouble-finder building up the MDN loses. Mott’s Compagno another striking physical in that wild MDN affair last month and might be the right key adding Castellano. Wannabeaplayer another who has ‘refused to win’. Master Merion returns to races for Ward off long break and comes in off big work. Shug offers Sentry, a full brother to Air Support..
Best Value: #7 Compagno 6-1
Next Best: #8 Sharm El Sheikh 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Master Merion 9-5 2nd
Super Add: #2 Wannabeaplayer 5-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #3 Sentry 10-1 5th
3rd: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Hi-5)
Very important MDN group with winner a likely Florida Derby starter. Those below very difficult to separate, so settling pecking order on price..
Best Value: #6 Big Dollar Bill 6-1: Debut surprise in Hedge Fund heat; Adds Lasix for Ian.. 4th
Next Best: #8 Eastport 3-1: Sightseeing half got education in bow; Working forwardly.. WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Blind Ambition 9-2: Gets debut pass going to nose in Lookin for Eight’s win.. 3rd
Super Add: #3 Borsa Vento 7-2: Made huge stride forward returning as 3yo; 2 turn question mark.. 5th
Hi-5 Play: #4 Prince Tito 5-1: Two good 3rds v. nice ones; Castellano added.. 6th
4th: 30th Herecomesthebride (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T/96′ (P3, DD, Hi-5)
Quirky running of this with potential for one or more of these to explode on the scene. Dream Dancing returned to her preferred surface to start 3yo season and may be really good. Sweeping Paddy ran like a filly that needed one failing as choice in January. Coasted had potential to win BC Juvy Filly Turf with cleaner trip and finds challenging spot to make sophomore bow. India Mantuana moves to Chad Brown barn and can impact from catbird seat with ideal pilot in J. Ortiz..
Most Likely: #1 Dream Dancing 9-2 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #2 Sweeping Paddy 6-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Coasted 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 India Mantuana 7-2 5th
5th: 32nd Fred Hooper (G3), 4+, 1m (P3, DD, Hi-5)
One of the day’s under-appreciated events with a hatful of knocking-on-the-door elders. Have been waiting for Realm to get his run back out of the Hal’s Hope and 5-1 would be a great price. Bird Song another personal fave and there was nothing wrong with being mauled in the stretch by Tommy Macho in that same race..
Best Value: #3 Realm 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Bird Song 9-2 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Mr. Jordan 8-1 6th
Super Add: #7 War Story 5-2 5th
Hi-5 Play: #8 Greenpointcrusader 2-1 7th
P5 Grid:
1: 1 (A), – (B), 6-7 (C)
2: 7-8-9 (A), 2-3 (B), 1-4-6 (C)
3: 1-6-8 (A), – (B), 3-4-5 (C)
4: 1-2 (A), 3-4 (B), 5-6-7 (C)
5: 3-4 (A), – (B), 2-7-8 (C)
Simple (A+B): 1x5x3x4x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 1x3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
$0.50 Pick-5 (1,5/6/8/1/4) Paid $173.80 (A-C-A-A-A)
$0.50 Pick-5 (1,5/6/8/1/4) Paid $3.80 (4OF5)
P4 Grid:
2: 7-8-9 (A), 2-3 (B), 1-4-6 (C)
3: 1-6-8 (A), – (B), 3-4-5 (C)
4: 1-2 (A), 3-4-5 (B), 6-7 (C)
5: 3-4 (A), – (B), 2-7-8 (C)
Simple (A+B): 5x3x5x2 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A’s: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
$0.50 Pick-4 (6/8/1/4) Paid $195.45 (C-A-A-A)
6th: 2nd Sand Springs, F&M-4+, 1m-T/0′ (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Best Value: #4 Always Thinking 20-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Celestine 9-5 WON ($3.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Catch a Glimpse 7-5 2nd
Super Add: #3 Lori’s Store 10-1 3rd
7th: 29th The Very One (G3), F&M-4+, 9.5f-T/96′ (P3, DD, Hi-5)
Most Likely: #1 Olorda 5-2 6th
Best Value: #2 Desiree Clary 5-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Suffused 8-5 WON ($3.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Paige 15-1 3rd
8th: MSW 3yo, 7f (Rainbow 6, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Rachel Alexandra brother #13 Fayeq (6-1) debuting here..
Most Likely: #11 Timeline 5-1 WON ($6.00)
Best Value: #9 Mr Atila 20-1 10th
Next Best: #8 Texican 10-1 12th
Exotics Use: #1 Caviar Czar 4-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Myakka River 12-1 9th
9th: 31st Palm Beach (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T/0′ (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Most Likely: #1 Cowboy Culture 3-1 7th
Best Value: #5 Snap Decision 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Kitten’s Cat 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Sailing Home 8-1 4th
Super/Hi-5: #9 Ticonderoga 7-2 WON ($7.00)
P6 Grid:
6: 4-5-8 (A), – (B), 2-3 (C)
7: 1-2-3 (A), – (B), 6-8 (C)
8: 11 (A), 9 (B), 1-2-8 (C)
9: 1-4-5 (A), 2-6-9 (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x6 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A’s: 3x3x1x3 = $27 ($13.50 for .50)
$0.50 Pick-4 (6,8,9/3,5,7/11/9) Paid $42.65
10th: 30th Davona Dale (G2), 3yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)
As discussed with Mike Welsch, wildly competitive cast with several seemingly ready to advance their Oaks prospects. Favored Miss Sky Warrior (5-2), Pretty City Dancer (7-2) and Eloquent Riddle (9-2) all solidly credentialed, while Modacious (10-1), Yes I’ll Go (12-1) and Ellie’s Honor (15-1) the prices to consider. Pace leans towards quick at the least with real potential to get hot. Brutal spot for multi-race plays..
Most Likely: #12 Pretty City Dancer 7-2 6th
Best Value: #3 Modacious 10-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Eloquent Riddle 9-2 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Ellie’s Honor 15-1 11th
Super/Hi-5: #7 Miss Sky Warrior 5-2 WON ($6.40)
11th: 51st Canadian Turf (G3), 4+, 1m-T/96′ (P3, DD, Hi-5)
Fascinating running of this with intrigue of returnees off lengthy breaks for Brown (Proj ected) and Toner (Interpol). Heart to Heart and Macagone are top recency players, while Bondurant returns to trip of his 3 wins. Dragon Bay catches my attention for capable Stuart Simon, making his 4yo debut in a spot where natural improvement makes him competitive..
Best Value: #1 Macagone 15-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Heart to Heart 2-1 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #7 Dragon Bay 10-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Projected 3-1 4th-DH
Hi-5 Play: #5 Conquest Panthera 8-1 3rd
12th: 22nd Mac Diarmida (G2), 4+, 9.5f-T/0′ (DD, Hi-5)
Fun edition of this and as mentioned on ATR, think you want to feather in prices with the obvious. Reporting Star has always run well at GP and 7yo may relax better for Leparoux than Saez while stretching out..
Best Value: #3 Reporting Star 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Mr Maybe 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Wake Forest 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Super Add: #1 Danish Dynaformer 10-1 6th
Hi-5 Play: #5 Charming Kitten 8-1 8th
13th: 71st Fountain of Youth (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (Hi-5)
Beasley the only FOY SCR; Lookin for Eight STILL IN..
Nice assembly for this Florida Derby prequel and as discussed, Irish War Cry can’t sneak up on the field here. Question for him and Rosario is ability to sit in stalking mode and Motion trained towards getting that answer today. Based on visuals of 2/25 Palm Meadows move, has gone forward of Holy Bull win and sits on go today. I normally don’t key off a favorite in as competitive a race as this, but Irish War Cry looks imposing with withdrawal of Beasley as he should set up shop behind Three Rules and Takaful. Speaking of Takaful, this is the spot to tinker with him in what they call in Fantasy Baseball, “post hype” mode. Came to South Florida off Jerome fiasco and has done nothing but impress. Gunnevera found path blocked in Holy Bull and should get a decent pace to run into, but note the defections take a fair amount of lick out of the front end. Practical Joke doing well prepping for 3yo debut and while expect he’ll run “A” race, doesn’t need to win..
Most Likely: #8 Irish War Cry 5-2 7th
Next Best: #2 Gunnevera 7-2 WON ($10.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Practical Joke 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Three Rules 12-1 3rd
Super/Hi-5: #10 Takaful 12-1 8th
P5 Grid:
9: 1-5 (A), 4 (B), 2-6-9 (C)
10: 3-9-12 (A), – (B), 5-6-7 (C)
11: 1-3 (A), – (B), 2-5-7-8 (C)
12: 3-6 (A), 1-4 (B), 5-12 (C)
13: 2-8 (A), – (B), 6-7-9-10 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
P4 Grid:
10: 3-9-12 (A), – (B), 5-6-7 (C)
11: 1-3 (A), 2-7 (B), 5-8 (C)
12: 3-6 (A), 1-4 (B), 5-12 (C)
13: 2-6-8 (A), – (B), 7-9-10 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
