This should be a tremendous day of racing with compelling slates at Aqueduct, Gulfstream and Santa Anita. With an interesting January in the books, Derby/Oaks stakes begin to take precedent and Withers, Holy Bull, Lewis troika should help put some focus on the road to the Wood, Florida and Santa Anita Derbys. Forward Gal at Gulfstream and Sunday’s return of Unique Bella and Champagne Room in the Las Virgenes at SA get the girls going..
Am the tab-maker in XB’s ‘Beat the Host’ today and utilized 6 stakes among the 8 races while blending some price tries in with the more obvious. Register and play to qualify for the $25k BTH Championship: http://www.xpressbet.com/beatthehost
GULFSTREAM
POST-SCRATCHES
6th: Forward Gal (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Hi-5)
Top finishers from Old Hat are joined by returning Pretty City Dancer and Laurel invader Ms Locust Point in excellent edition of this. Pace looks honest (or more) and I want to tinker with #8 Summer Luck who should be every bit of her 6-1 ML and will enjoy an outside stalk and go trip after difficult voyage in Old Hat. Note also that the Casse-Barber filly is in receipt of 4# from most (116 v. 120) and 6# from the underlaid 7-5 fave Pretty City Dancer (122)..
Best Value: #8 Summer Luck 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Bode’s Dream 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Ms Locust Point 5-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Pretty City Dancer 7-5 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #7 Wildcat Kate 6-1 6th
9th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Nice pedigrees on display in open-looking group which features 9 first time starters including Frosted half sis Apiary (Bernardini). Will take the tack that debut fillies are better than any of those with experience..
Most Likely: #3 Nonna Bella 3-1 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #10 Lunar Lullaby 15-1 10th
Next Best: #5 Gifted Lady 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Apiary 6-1 7th
Super/Hi-5: #4 Awestruck 5-1 3rd
10th: OC/C, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T/96′ (P3, DD, Hi-5)
Listed stake quality conditioned ALW..
Most Likely: #9 Excilly 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Salty Breeze 12-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Seeking Treasure 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Quality Rocks 9-2 10th
Super/Hi-5: #4 Inside Out 7-2 7th
11th: Sweetest Chant (G3), 3yo-F, 1m-T/24′ (DD, Hi-5)
Most Likely: #7 Rymska 9-5 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #1 Okinawa 6-1 7th
Best Value: #4 Mo Justice 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Compelled 5-2 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #5 A Great Time 20-1 6th
12th: Holy Bull (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (Hi-5)
2yo Champion Classic Empire returns here and didn’t exactly scare them away at the entry box. Gunnevera (9-2), Irish War Cry (15-1 ~ but will be lower) and Fact Finding (6-1) all have established form that is within hailing distance of the Oxley/Casse Juvenile winner, while 12-1 Talk Logistics (Mucho Macho Man 3rd) and 15-1 Cavil (troubled trip in Mucho Macho Man) are longshots that have real board chances. Note KMc’s Shadwell homebred Shamsaan (Bernardini out of Dynaformer mare) has never seen a dry fast strip. Most likely a turf horse, but this scenario does produce horses jumping up from nowhere..
Most Likely: #3 Classic Empire 3-5 3rd
Next Best: #6 Fact Finding 6-1 Late SCR
Best Value: #4 Talk Logistics 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Irish War Cry 15-1 WON ($10.80)
Super/Hi-5: #1 Gunnevera 9-2 2nd
P4 Grid:
9: 3-5-8-10 (A), 2-4-6-7 (B), 1-10-11-12 (C)
10: 7-9 (A), 1-6 (B), 4-5-10 (C)
11: 1-7 (A), – (B), 2-3-4-5 (C)
12: 3 (A), 6 (B), 1-4-5 (C)
Simple (A+B): 8x4x2x2 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A’s: 4x2x2x1 = $16 ($8 for .50)
SANTA ANITA
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)
Time is now for Reach the World who endured bottled up trip in debut and would likely show up in San Felipe (or similar) with a win today. Honor and Courage ran into Sheer Flattery (Lewis favorite next) last time..
Most Likely: #2 Reach the World 8-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #4 Honor and Courage 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Sonneteer 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Cats Blame 4-1 4th
2nd: Bob Lewis (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)
Sheer Flattery broke through in last and has controlling options from outside under Smith..
Most Likely: #5 Sheer Flattery 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Royal Mo 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #3 Dangerfield 7-2 5th
3rd: Palos Verdes (G2), 4+, 6f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 St. Joe Bay 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #5 Moe Candy 2-1 2nd
4th: MSW, 3yo-F, 9f-T (P6, P3, DD)
$34k C/O starts here..
Most Likely: #9 Amen Sista 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Domestic Vintage 5-1 6th
Best Value: #3 Goseecal 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Paddy Jean 6-1 9th
5th: MCLM/$30k, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)
Best Value: #4 Munny Spirit 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Tattooed Kitty 7-2 WON ($8.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Haynzee Panky 4-1 11th
Super Add: #11 Solar Corona 6-1 6th
P5 Grid:
1: 2-4 (A), – (B), 1-3 (C)
2: 1-5 (A), – (B), 3 (C)
3: 3-5 (A), – (B), 2 (C)
4: 1-9 (A), 3-6 (B), – (C)
5: 4-6 (A), 1-11 (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x4x4 = 128 x $64
All A’s: 2x2x2x2x2 = $32 ($16 for .50)
P4 Grid:
2: 1-5 (A), – (B), 3 (C)
3: 3-5 (A), – (B), 2 (C)
4: 1-9 (A), 3-6 (B), – (C)
5: 1-4-6-11 (A), – (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 2x2x4x4 = 128 x $64
All A’s: 2x2x2x4 = $32 ($16 for .50)
6th: OC/N2X, 4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
Best Value: #8 Fabozzi 6-1 WON ($16.20)
Next Best: #9 Curlin Rules 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Stringent 15-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Play Hard to Get 5-1 10th
7th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 Plane Lucky 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Dis Smart Cat 5-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Avicii 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #2 Calm the Sea 7-2 3rd
8th: San Antonio (G2), 4+, 8.5f (DD)
Picked Dalmore for Beat the Host due to price, but feel like he’s just one of the 4 below that can win..
Best Value: #6 Dalmore 8-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Accelerate 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Mor Spirit 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Hoppertunity 2-1 WON ($7.00)
9th: San Marcos (G2), 4+, 10f-T (Hi-5)
SCR 7-9-10.. Taking shot with steady improver Itsinthepost, but this should be wildly entertaining. Ryano & Flamboyant are rock solid..
Best Value: #3 Itsinthepost 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Texas Ryano 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Flamboyant 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #12 Hi Happy 10-1 4th
Hi-5 Play: #13 Twentytwentyvision 6-1 7th
P6 Grid:
4: 9 (A), 1-3 (B), 6 (C)
5: 4-6 (A), – (B), 1-11 (C)
6: 8-9 (A), – (B), 2-7 (C)
7: 5 (A), – (B), 1-6 (C)
8: 6-7 (A), – (B), 1-5 (C)
9: 2-3-5 (A), – (B), 12-13 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x1x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144
All A’s: 1x2x2x1x2x3 = 24 x $2 = $48
P4 Grid:
6: 8-9 (A), 2-7 (B), – (C)
7: 5 (A), 1-6 (B), 3-7 (C)
8: 1-5-6-7 (A), – (B), 2-4-8 (C)
9: 2-3-5 (A), – (B), 12-13 (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x1x4x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)
