CHURCHILL DOWNS
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: OC/C, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 Geothermal 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Rise Up 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Rocket Time 3-1 WON ($5.20)
2nd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)
Best Value: #4 Pinson 10-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Divine Interventio 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #1e Oxley entry 5-2 2nd/3rd
Super Add: #8 Unexplained 4-1 5th
3rd: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #7 Jazzy Times 3-1 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #11 Grand Candy 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Jimbo Fallon 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Seeking the Soul 7-2 5th
4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)
A bad group that should make you think twice about heavy investment in the P5..
Best Value: #2 Crafty’s Way 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Havana Dream 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Res Ipsa 6-1 WON ($14.40)
Super Add: #9 Koala Lake 15-1 9th
5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)
Best Value: #3 Allied Air Raid 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Gotham News 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Freestyler 4-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Bold Conquest 9-2 5th
P4 Grid:
2: 3-4 (A), 1-8 (B), 2 (C)
3: 7 (A), – (B), 10-11 (C)
4: 1-2-6 (A), 9-10-11 (B), – (C)
5: 3-10-12 (A), 1-2-4 (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x1x6x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x1x3x3 = $18
6th: 31st Churchill Downs Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #1 Tepin 1-2 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #9 Rainha Da Bateria 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Isabella Sings 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 She’s Not Here 15-1 6th
7th: 82nd Churchill Downs (G2), 4+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)
Best Value: #6 Speightster 6-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Limousine Liberal 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Holy Boss 8-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Catalina Red 15-1 WON ($30.20)
P5 Grid:
3: 7 (A), 10-11 (B), – (C)
4: 1-2-6 (A), 9-10-11 (B), – (C)
5: 3-10-12 (A), 1-2-4 (B), – (C)
6: 1 (A), – (B), 4-9 (C)
7: 6 (A), – (B), 1-3-5-7-8-9 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x6x6x1x1 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A’s: 1x3x3x1x1 = $9
8th: 30th Humana Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #10 Wavell Avenue 3-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Enchanting Lady 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Stonetastic 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Birdatthewire 5-1 5th
P4 Grid:
5: 3-10-12 (A), 1-2-4 (B), – (C)
6: 1 (A), – (B), 4-9 (C)
7: 5-6 (A), 7-9 (B), 1-3-8 (C)
8: 6-10 (A), 2-8-9 (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 6x1x4x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 3x1x2x2 = $12
$0.50 Pick 4 (4/1,2,6/9/8) Pays $501.60
9th: 25th American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #1 Airoforce 4-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Shakhimat 5-1 9th
Best Value: #4 Beach Patrol 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use:: #11 Dressed in Hermes 5-1 7th
10th: 92nd Pat Day Mile (G3), 3yo, 1m (P3, DD)
Best Value: #11 AMERICAN FREEDOM 6-1 6th
Next Best: #13 Star Hill 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Sharp Azteca 8-1 WON ($28.20)
Super Add: #10 Cocked and Loaded 6-1 14th
11th: 29th Woodford Reserve (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #8 Divisidero 15-1 WON ($15.40)
Best Value: #11 World Approval 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Tourist 8-1 4th
Exotic Use: #12 Big Blue Kitten 5-2 5th
12th: 142nd Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Super Hi-5)
As always, a wonderful 2 weeks in Louisville, typically my favorite part of the broadcast year. I hope everyone garnered info they feel is helping them approach the most unique event in our game. As discussed, I want to swing for fences with outsiders among this odd assembly and remain comfortable with the original quartet I presented last week for the Xpressbet Guide. My Man Sam, Creator, Majesto and Suddenbreakingnews offer a variety of styles and forward progress that make them eligible for success here. I’m adding Mor Spirit, who I’ve liked from start of career and will use these 5 alone and with Nyquist, Outwork and Brody’s in exacta and trifecta savers. I’ve maintained that this is a Derby with a great potential for chaos and that can even be the case if one of the major players succeeds. Be in a position to capitalize either way by boxing up as many inventive options as you can afford while hooking them up with the keyed favorite(s) you prefer..
Most Likely: #6 My Man Sam 20-1 11th
Next Best: #3 Creator 10-1 13th
Best Value: #18 Majesto 30-1 18th
Exotics Use: #2 Suddenbreakingnews 20-1 5th
Super Add: #17 Mor Spirit 12-1 10th
Cover Candidates: #13 Nyquist 3-1; #15 Outwork 15-1; #19 Brody’s Cause 12-1
P5 Grid:
8: 2-6-10 (A), – (B), 8-9 (C)
9: 1-8 (A), 4 (B), 11-12-13 (C)
10: 11 (A), – (B), 6-10-13 (C)
11: 8-10-11 (A), – (B), 1-3-4-5-6-12 (C)
12: 3-6-13-15 (A), 11-17-18-19 (B), 2-8-10-20 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x3x1x3x8 = 216 x .50 = $108
All A’s: 3x2x1x3x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
P4 Grid:
9: 1-8 (A), 4 (B), 11-12-13 (C)
10: 11 (A), – (B), 6-10-13 (C)
11: 8-10-11 (A), 1-4-12 (B), 3-5-6-7-9 (C)
12: 3-6-13-15 (A), 11-17-18-19 (B), 2-8-10-20 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x1x6x8 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x1x3x4 = $24 ($12 for .50)
Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3 Grid:
KO: 3-11-13 (A), 2-8-12 (B), 4-6-7 (C)
WR: 8-10-11-12 (A), – (B), 1-5-6 (C)
KD: 3-6-13-15 (A), 11-17-18-19 (B), 2-10 (C)
Simple (A+B): 6x4x8 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A’s: 3x4x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
$0.50 P3 (12-8-13) $197.45
Oaks-Derby DBL:
KO: 3-11-13 (A), 2-8-12 (B), 4-6-7 (C)
KD: 3-6-13-15 (A), 11-17-18-19 (B), 2-10 (C)
Simple (A+B): 6×8 = $48
All A’s: 3×4 = $12 ($24 for $2; $60 for $5, etc.)
$1 DD (12-13) $29.40
13th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (DD)
Most Likely: #5 Sonoma Crush 7-2 10th
Next Best: #4 Mkubwa 4-1 5th
Best Value: #9 Harlan Punch 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Smart Moon 4-1 4th
14th: MSW, 3+, 9f
This is a VERY good and competitive group of 3+ MDN’s, but we may have the ultimate ‘get out’ play for the weekend in the latest Lemons Forever colt that Dallas Stewart told us all about. In addition to being the brother of Forever Unbridled and Unbridled Forever, watched him fly down the stretch effortlessly in :59.4 last Friday and gallop out huge around the turn. Gets 9f he wants and it will take a really good horse to beat him..
Best Value: #6 FOREVER D’ORO 6-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Race Me Home 5-1 WON ($23.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Conquest War Cry 6-1 6th
Super Add: #12 Goats Town 7-2 7th
P4 Grid:
11: 8-10-11-12 (A), 1-3-4-7 (B), 2-5-6-9 (C)
12: 3-6-13-15 (A), 11-17-18-19 (B), 2-8-10-20 (C)
13: 4-5-9 (A), – (B), 6-9 (C)
14: 6 (A), – (B), 3-4 (C)
Simple (A+B): 8x8x3x1 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A’s: 4x4x3x1 = 48 x .50 = $24
