Rough weather day marred Keeneland opener a bit and damp, raw afternoons appear on tap for Lexington and Elmont today for the big slates of Cup preps. Soft turf the order of the day as well..



5th: 35th Kelso H. (G2), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Honor Code would seem against a modest projected pace here if he’s going to drop a dozen lengths out as usual when going the one turn mile. At the same time, he exits a very sharp bullet work and may be edgier than we’ve seen. Scenario says he falls short, but with many lining up to beat him, have a feeling he gets up..

Most Likely: #2 Honor Code 3-5 3rd
Best Value: #3 Scarly Charly 20-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Red Vine 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 My Lute 12-1 5th

6th: 38th Flower Bowl (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Moved to the Widener, looking to soft-loving Danza Cavallo to make the most of the best footing on the crown at a nice price..

Best Value: #10 Danza Cavallo 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Curvy 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Regardez 8-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Stephanie’s Kitten 9-5 WON ($6.90)

7th: 68th Frizette (G1), 2yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Nickname 7-2: Advanced 2nd start after finding Rachel’s Valentina in debut.. WON ($12.80)
Next Best: #1 She’s All Ready 3-1: Cleverly handled NY-bred thriving since Spa wins.. 3rd
Best Value: #7 Where’s the D 10-1: Who’s arguing against O’Neill juvy factory? Stretches from 5.5f.. 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Width 5-2: Another looking to convert from 5.5f, but sharp in debut win.. 5th

8th: 144th Champagne (G1), 2yo, 1m, (P3, DD)

East Coast 2yo’s may have been caught flat-footed in the Hopeful, but this looks like a well-matched group even with the garish Ralis performance lauding it over on paper. There are 6 new winners facing the O’Neill invader here, as well as Brown/Klaravich maiden Portfolio Manager, and any of them (2-3-4-6-7-8-9) appear capable with easy to project juvenile improvement..

Most Likely: #4 Sail Ahoy 12-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Sunny Ridge 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Ralis 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Portfolio Manager 12-1 3rd

9th: 41st Hill Prince (G3), 3yo, 9f-IT (P3, DD)

Ridiculous assembly. Use as many as you can afford..

Best Value: #3 Winter Springs 20-1 10th
Next Best: #5 Takeover Target 6-1 WON ($12.00)
Exotics Use: #11 Tale of Life 5-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Courtier 8-1 11th

10th: 97th Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), 3+, 10f (DD)

Tonalist has endured a bit of a maddening season but everything seems set to launch him towards Breeders’ Cup as a repeat winner of the JCGC. Make no mistake though, Wicked Strong (assuming no incident drops jock), Coach Inge, Constitution and Effinez are a stronger cast than he faced a year ago and he cannot be allowed to drop out of it though as he did in the Whitney..

Most Likely: #6 Tonalist 6-5 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #2 Coach Inge 5-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Constitution 3-1 6th

P4 Grid:

7: 1-5 (A), 2-7 (B), 3-4-6 (C)
8: 4-8 (A), 2-3-5-9 (B), 1-7 (C)
9: 3-5 (A), 6-9-11 (B), 4-7-10 (C)
10: 6 (A), – (B), 1-2-3-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x6x5x1 = 120 x $.50 = $60

$0.50 Pick-4 (5/2/5/6) Paid $282.00



6th: 35th TCA (G2), F&M-3+, 6f (P5, P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Heykittykittykitty 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Judy the Beauty 6-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Sweet Whiskey 7-2 5th
Super Add: #5 Leigh Court 3-1 8th

7th: 18th First Lady (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Crowley’s Law 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Kiss Moon 20-1 9th
Next Best: #11 Tepin 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #9 Sky Treasure 15-1 6th

8th: 102nd Breeders’ Futurity (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Like the Champagne, this assembles a group of emergent lads that are tricky to separate. Feels as if there are some good young horses in here with more half legit win candidates (1-4-5-6-7-8-10)..

Best Value: #6 Sticksstatelydude 10-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Brody’s Cause 6-1 WON ($25.60)
Exotics Use: #8 Sheikh of Sheikhs 5-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Rated R Superstar 6-1 3rd

9th: 30th Shadwell Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Best Value: #4 Grand Arch 8-1 WON ($10.60)
Next Best: #5 Dutch Connection 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 The Pizza Man 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Bobby’s Kitten 6-1 9th

P4 Grid:

6: 1-3 (A), – (B), 4-5 (C)
7: 1-2 (A), 11 (B), 5-6-7-9 (C)
8: 5-6 (A), 1-4-7-8 (B), – (C)
9: 4-5 (A), 9-10 (B), 6-12-13 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x6x4 = 144 x $.50 = $72