5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)
$206k DBL P6 C/O starts here..
For all the perception of turf sprints being chaotic, they certainly have been formful at SAR thus far. 14 lawn dashes have been run in 10 days and 6 have been won by the favorite. An additional 5 were copped by runners priced between 2-1 and 7-2. With a seeming short supply of all-out speed types signed on, it appears you’re best served looking for logical players that will be forwardly-placed and shorter priced. Wes Welker’s first time 4yo Eighty Three (Wesley Ward; 5-2) is the obvious horse to beat and Klaravich’s Sourcesandmethods (2/19 Fair Grounds turf sprint; 4-1) is the best of those that will have to rally. Repole’s Triple Play (6-1) has dirt speed and though Bruce Levine isn’t known for moving horses to the turf (5%; 0.63), he’s more than OK (21%; $1.94) in sod hops overall. Well bred Decent (7-2) gets Castellano first off the Kenneally claim (24%; $1.60) and will be in striking distance from the bell. Downgoesfrazier (Domino; 12-1) has several races good enough to win this, but they’ve come downstate at 7f-T and beyond. On that topic, note there’s only one entrant in this non-winners of 2 event whose tally came at this trip at the Spa: 30-1 Greeley Pack (Kathleen Feron 0/27 this year). One Eyed Ray (10-1) is a new gelding for Trombetta as well as first time for a tag. Jim Catterbone’s (well-followed black cat head silks) Prophet’s Cat (15-1) has been close in last pair of 6f-T versions since going to Saez..
Most Likely: #8 Eighty Three 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Sourcesandmethods 4-1 7th
Best Value: #6 One Eyed Ray 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Decent 7-2 WON ($9.00)
6th: CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD)
Question here is who/if/when Banzai Charge (5-1; P. Lopez) and/or Bowman’s Beast (12-1; R. Hernandez) will engage Street Shark SCR’D (15-1; Cruz), because if they don’t, the Joe Parker trainee can take them all the way around. The rest of the cast features class dippers with merit (Honor the Kitten, Bigger Picture, Abtaal, McIlroy) and a dangerous 20-1 player from Moquett in $800k earner Bim Bam. Klesaris (Upgrade) and Gargan (Rapscallion) rise in class a notch off claims..
Best Value: #6 Banzai Charge 5-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Abtaal 9-2 WON ($8.50)
Exotics Use: #1 Honor the Kitten 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #9 McIlroy 6-1 7th
7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)
Older maidens with top connected, well-working firsters (Excuse My French, Istiraaha, Vacation Spot) facing off with several obvious players with experience (She’s a True Beauty, Prospector’s Moon, Bird Sense, Sanctifica)..
Most Likely: #6 Bird Sense 9-2: 3 miles of drills since last; Saez stalks hot pace.. 3rd
Best Value: #9 Istiraaha 6-1: Debuting Tapit for KMC/Shadwell double with Abtaal? 8th
Next Best: #5 Prospector’s Moon 5-1: 2nd st. for $350k Malibu Moon; Needs to break.. 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Excuse My French 7-2: CBrown’s Spendthrift homebred must negotiate rail.. WON ($7.70)
8th: OC/C, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)
Hard to not expect good U.S. debut from Clement’s Crisolles. Enough for a single? Maybe..
Most Likely: #8 Crisolles 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 La Madrina 6-1 6th
Best Value: #2 Cash Control 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Distorted Beauty 5-1 4th
9th: Shine Again,
Stonetastic makes 4yo debut on strip where she dominated in the Prioress a year ago. As Nick Tammaro pointed out, Kelly Breen had options out of her stall at MTH, so fact she returns here notable. Frankly, if you don’t lean on her heavily, you’re in a ticket-building quandry as there are probably another half dozen after her that you’d need to consider..
Most Likely: #3 Stonetastic 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #10 Taketheodds 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Wavell Avenue 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Bird Maker 15-1 9th
10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f
May not collapse, but there’s plenty of pace in here to warrant focus on the stalker-closers..
Most Likely: #6 Aleander 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #11 Who’s Z Daddy 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Pin and Win 5-1 4th
Best Value: #12 Tottie Royer 30-1 9th-DH
Super Add: #1 Little Rocco 20-1 6th
5: 4-8 (A), 6-10 (B), 2-7-11 (C)
6: 6 (A), 5 (B), 1-9 (C)
7: 6-9 (A), – (B), 2-5-7-8 (C)
8: 8 (A), 2-6 (B), – (C)
9: 3 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 6 (A), 10-11 (B), 1-7-12 (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x3x1x3 = 144 x $2 = $288
Full (A/B/C): $228
7: 6-9 (A), 2-5-7-8 (B), 1-3-4 (C)
8: 8 (A), 2-6 (B), (C)
9: 3 (A), 10 (B), 6 (C)
10: 6-11 (A), 10-12 (B), 1-7 (C)
Simple (A+B): 6x3x2x4 = 144 x $.50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $50