CHURCHILL DOWNS
POST-SCRATCHES
5th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Most Likely: #4 Lightening Struck 7-2
Next Best: #8 Top Gun Tommy 4-1
Exotics Use: #3 Big Effect 5-2
Super Add: #2 Midnight Pranks 8-1
6th: MCLM, 3+, 8.5f (Derby City 6, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Have to prefer the ones that haven’t had tons of chances..
Best Value: #5 Cinister Cix 4-1
Next Best: #7 Cannon 3-1
Exotics Use: #6 Chachaching 9-2
Super Add: #2 Come to Papa 5-1
7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Wildly competitive after horse-to-beat Echo Lane..
Best Value: #6 Mount Rundle 15-1
Next Best: #3 Echo Lane 5-2
Exotics Use: #8 Aspenite 10-1
Super Add: #7 Miranda Rights 3-1
8th: S/ALW, 3yo-F, 7.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Best Value: #5 Take Charge Omaha 6-1
Next Best: #7 Anonima 5-2
Exotics Use: #2 Daisy Duke 3-1
Super Add: #1 Black Ginger 8-1
P4 Grid:
5: 3-4-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 5-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 3-6-8 (A), – (B), 1-7-11 (C)
8: 5-7 (A), 1-3 (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x2x3x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACA): 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (1-7-11 in 7th)
9th: Chicago (G3), F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD, Hi-5)
Emery and Vahva can be respected here, but they seem far less scary than they were last year. Zeitlos and My Mnae Squeeze are atrractive numbers and good right now..
Best Value: #11 Zeitlos 8-1
Next Best: #9 My Mane Squeeze 5-1
Exotics Use: #1 Emery 5-2
Super Add: #5 Vahva 3-1
10th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 6.5f (DD, Hi-5)
Wow. Absolutely loaded ALW. Invictus cutting back makes sense, but how do you not figure that Walden unlocks Keewaydin? Camp Hale broke through last time after finding tigers all winter and spring. David of Athens makes 3yo delayed debut and can be expected to compete with natural juvy to soph development..
Most Likely: #11 Camp Hale 7-2
Best Value: #5 Keewaydin 12-1
Next Best: #8 Invictus 3-1
Exotics Use: #3 David of Athens 5-1
11th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f (Hi-5)
Most Likely: #1 Tizmarkus 3-1
Best Value: #11 Laughnowcrylater 10-1
Next Best: #9 Bolt at Midnight 4-1
Exotics Use: #7 Beyond Best 15-1
P5 Grid:
7: 3-6-8 (A), – (B), 1-7-11 (C)
8: 5-7 (A), 1-3 (B), – (C)
9: 11 (A), 9 (B), – (C)
10: 3-5-8-11 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 1-11 (A), – (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x4x2 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A’s: 3x2x1x4x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (CAAAA): 3x2x1x4x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (1-7-11 in 11th)
P4 Grid:
8: 5-7 (A), 1-3 (B), – (C)
9: 9-11 (A), – (B), 1-5 (C)
10: 3-5-8-11 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 1-11 (A), 9 (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x2x4x2 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backup (ACAA): 2x2x4x2 = 32 x .50 = $16 (1-5 in 9th)
Let’s get lucky!
Steve
