8/22: Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Analysis presented by NYRA Bets

SARATOGA – 8/22/2020
Nick Tammaro ~ @NTamm1215

#4 AMPERSAND is training forwardly and is by upstart freshman sire Speightster.  His worktab is impressive and this barn has quietly had a few runners perform well at this stand.  #3 AFTER FIVE is another reportedly training well and he should have speed.  Tab the tote action on this son of The Factor.  #1 FOLIAGE is kin to Grade I winner Lea, so he should take to the dirt.  He drew the rail, which is a negative, but he looks to be training well also.

#4 AIRTOUCH takes an enormous drop in class for trainer Todd Pletcher and is the poster child for why people want claiming reform.  He towers over this field and is a 100% certainty to be claimed.  #1 OH MY PAPA is a pace player from the rail as he exits an effort that was better than it looks on paper.  He can improve off the claim by Rudy Rodriguez.  #6 OUR AMERICAN STAR is a late runner who was up for second in a putrid field last time out.  He can be a late threat again if there’s pace in front of him.

#4 BLINDWILLIE MCTELL looks like a complete cinch with this race off the turf.  He’s many lengths faster than his rivals.  #3 TIKHVIN FLEW should have been sprinting on the dirt the whole time his trainer ruined him going long.  #7 AMERICAN MANDATE has good dirt form and can be a pace threat today with an aggressive ride.

#1 THEBIGFUNDAMENTAL likely needed his last and was wide on a day where the rail was good.  #3 SUPER DUDE drops in class off a poor effort going long.  A rebound to his effort two back would make him a threat.  #6 HEAVY ROLLER is another getting serious class relief after nearly being claimed for 40k last time.  Look for him in the late stages.

#11 LIKEABLE looks to be training forwardly for his debut and is out of the fleet-footed Dashing Debby.  This colt is a half to the graded stake winner Dawn the Destroyer.  #12 MO MISCHIEF went off 11-10 in his debut and was no match for Momos.  He should improve with that race behind him.  #9 EXCURSION is by Curlin, a versatile stallion and is kin to 5 winners.

#4 CENTRAL EXIT is new to the barn of Jeremiah Englehart and was too close to a hot pace in his last start.  The class drop will help his chances as well.  #3 VINITA ran a credible race on debut and likely needed a race, as most Tom Albertrani trainees do.  The blinkers going on should sharpen him early.  #5 LOVE ME TOMORROW is a speedster who should get control of this race early.  Whether she can stay the course is the question.

Who knows who’ll even run?  #8 KINGMEISTER is arguably a better dirt horse.  #6 CHASE TRACKER has needed to sprint all along. #3 CUCINA is at least as good on dirt.

#2 GROWTH ENGINE was a smashing winner against lesser last time out at Monmouth and now makes his 2^nd start off a 53 week layoff.  He is a late running type who’ll be helped by the expected race flow in here, as there are a couple of runners who can battle early.  Chief among them is #1 BLEWITT, who appears to be the main speed.  He switches surfaces and draws favorably inside for a frontrunning trip.  #3 SEA FOAM has been most effective on the front end in his career but has won sitting just off the pace.  He is unlikely to get the lead here but has running lines that make him competitive for a share.

#7 VALID POINT was mired in serious traffic the whole way down the stretch last time out and never got a chance to run.  That was his first start off a lengthy layoff and he should be wound tighter for this engagement.  The fact that Chad Brown is pressing on with him is a real angle, as he looks deserving of lesser competition.  #6 UNI prefers very firm turf and might have been hurt by the footing last time out.  She is a late runner who was never going to have an easy time running down the fleet-footed Newspaperofrecord, but should be wound tighter second off the bench today.  #5 HALLADAY is the one to catch and is a threat to go the distance given his pace savvy pilot.  He was foolishly rated last time out and ist cost him dearly, so look for him to be ridden aggressively today.

#9 RAKEEZ was a handy winner against MSW foes when last seen at Gulfstream and is now in a soft spot class-wise off the bench for Chad Brown.  He will win this handily with a repeat of his last as he has a major Beyer speed figure edge.  #3 CATORAT is a late runner who made up serious ground into a slow pace last time out and now goes 3^rd off an extended layoff for an underrated barn.  #2 KID CHOCOLATE was bested by the 2^nd pick last time out but this son of Lookin at Lucky had trouble going to the first turn and that cost him.  He can be a late threat again given the likelihood of a decent pace.