BELMONT PARK
POST-SCRATCHES
5th: 77th Beldame (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD)
Reverting back to the one turn 9f changes things up for these girls and Wedding Toast has been particularly tough at Belmont and will take some beating. I’d like to get House Rules (10-1) in to the mix who runs well fresh and can grab major share just stalking and closing in typical manner. Haven’t heard it brought up, but Curalina was flattered by I’m a Chatterbox last week in the Cotillion and should be more effective back on the strip where she rallied to annex the Acorn..
Most Likely: #2 Wedding Toast 6-5
Best Value: #6 House Rules 10-1
Next Best: #1 Curalina 3-1
Exotics Use: #4 Catch My Drift 5-1
6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)
$24k P6 C/O starts here..
Hard to get past the top players here..
Most Likely: #7 Neck of the Moon 3-1
Next Best: #5 Morning Star 7-2
Best Value: #10 Orient Harbor 5-1
Exotics Use: #9 Robe 4-1
7th: 22nd Gallant Bloom (G2), F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)
As will be the case in the Vosburgh, a sprint without too many authentic ‘all out’ speed. Will Cornelio Velasquez — hardly the aggressive type — challenge La Verdad from the outset with Room for Me? Feels unlikely, leaving group at mercy of Jose Ortiz and the Linda Rice fave who is 7/6-1-0 at Belmont. I again want to try and get Jimmy Jerkens in the picture with a price, this time looking to Classic Point (12-1) who stayed at Belmont all summer aiming for this..
Most Likely: #2 La Verdad 4-5
Best Value: #6 Classic Point 12-1
Next Best: #3 Room for Me 6-1
Exotics Use: #7 Willet 20-1
8th: 37th Pilgrim (G3), 2yo, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)
Maniacally difficult group to separate as virtually any of these that look more obscure could improve enough to move up. Cover as many as you can afford..
Best Value: #3 Pagan 20-1
Next Best: #1 Ray’s The Bar 6-1
Exotics Use: #2 Highland Sky 10-1
Super Add: #6 Eidmilaad 3-1
9th: 76th Vosburgh (G1), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)
Rock Fall looks unbeatable here, but what to do after that? Stallwalkin’ Dude (12-1) has been remarkably consistent and never off the board at BEL; Weekend Hideaway (20-1) gave indications all summer that he was coming into form; Jose Garoffalo has smartly returned Wildcat Red (15-1) to his most effective role as a sprinter..
Most Likely: #7 Rock Fall 2-5
Best Value: #3 Weekend Hideaway 20-1
Next Best: #5 Stallwalkin’ Dude 12-1
Exotics Use: #2 Wildcat Red 15-1
10th: 39th Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1), 3+, 12f-T (DD)
Most Likely: #1 Red Rifle 5-2
Next Best: #4 Twilight Eclipse 5-1
Exotics Use: #3 Big Blue Kitten 2-1
Super Add: #5 Slumber 7-2
P4 Grid:
7: 2 (A), 3-6 (B), 1-4-5-7 (C)
8: 1-2-3-6 (A), 4-5-7-8-9-10 (B), – (C)
9: 7 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 1-4 (A), 3-5-7 (B), 2-6 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x10x1x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
Full (A/B/C): $77
11th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 10f-IT
Rallying types Grey Wizard (developing) & Request (win shy) both just missed in glacial 11f affair upstate 8/29 and should get a better pace to chase here. Rather than choose between the group that comes out of the 8/23 Spa logjam (3-11-12), reaching for East Bay Lodge (20-1) who was a different animal upstate in pair of sparklers versus own kind. This is open company and all, but he showed tactical ability in Saratoga and can impact this at a big, big price saving ground all the way. Similarly, NY-bred Bullheaded Boy was making steady gains as a turf horse before trying the logical opportunity in the Albany. Back to lawn here and repeat of race before heading north can get the money..
Most Likely: #8 Grey Wizard 4-1
Next Best: #2 Request 3-1
Best Value: #1 East Bay Lodge 20-1
Exotics Use: #9 Bullheaded Boy 15-1
P6 Grid:
6: 5-7 (A), 9-10 (B), 2 (C)
7: 2 (A), – (B), 3-6 (C)
8: 1-3 (A), 2-6-7-8 (B), 4-5-9-10 (C)
9: 7 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 1-4 (A), 3-5 (B), 2-6-7 (C)
11: 8 (A), – (B), 1-2-9 (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x1x6x1x4x1 = 96 x $2 = $192
Full (A/B/C): $304
CHURCHILL DOWNS
POST-SCRATCHES
7th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P5, P32, DD)
Most Likely: #8 Stout’cannon 7-2: Half to Kantharos should debut running..
Best Value: #5 Uncle James 6-1: Talented family; Matthews adept with FTS..
Next Best: #1 Forevamo 5-2: Half to Musical Romance exits solid SAR bow..
Exotics Use: #7 Tom’s Ready 2-1 Aggressively spotted in Hopeful; Adds blinks..
SANTA ANITA
POST-SCRATCHES
5th: 4th FrontRunner (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 Nyquist 6-5
Best Value: #6 Rare Candy 15-1
Next Best: #3 Blameitonthelaw 5-1
Exotics Use: #8 Mt Veeder 6-1
8th: 4th Chandelier (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)
Pretty N Cool expected to SCR for Alcibiades at KEE..
Most Likely: #5 Songbird 3-5
Next Best: #7 Land Over Sea 9-2
Exotics Use: #8 Jade Queen 9-2
Super Add: #2 Halo Darlin 12-1
9th: 4th Rodeo Drive (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-T (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #8 Hard Not to Like 3-1
Next Best: #6 Elektrum 5-1
Best Value: #1 Star Act 15-1
Exotics Use: #10 Stormy Lucy 20-1
10th: 4th Awesome Again (G1), 3+, 9f (DD)
Last call for Bayern and may be much happier in Arcadia than he was in La Jolla. Certainly gets pace edge. As suggested by Jay Privman on ATR, Smooth Roller the new fresh face and has speed to stay in contact if Bayern falters..
Best Value: #7 Smooth Roller 6-1
Next Best: #8 Bayern 5-2
Exotics Use: #6 Imperative 6-1
Super Add: #5 Hoppertunity 3-1
11th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (Super Hi-5)
Best Value: #10 Pacific Prince 10-1
Next Best: #9 Canada 7-2
Exotics Use: #1 Recalibrating 4-1
Super Add: #8 Osceola Pond 9-2
Hi-5 Play: #3 Coach Q 6-1
P4 Grid:
8: 5 (A), – (B), 2-7-8 (C)
9: 8 (A), 1-6 (B), 3-9-10-11 (C)
10: 6-7-8 (A), 1-2-3-4-5 (B), – (C)
11: 9-10 (A), 1-3-6-8 (B), 2-5 (C)
Simple (A+B): 1x3x8x6 = 144 x $.50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $77
Good luck!
Steve
