Fun start to the BC weekend Friday with Forever Unbridled capping the day under Johnny V. in a well-orchestrated Distaff triumph. While a 3-start campaign doesn’t sit well with purists, no one can argue with the result produced by Dallas Stewart’s deliberate Championship path. Nice though that she’ll go forward into a 6yo season with the unusual Mr. Fipke eager to try some ambitious spots.
Wagering bumped along throughout the day with Rushing Fall ($8.00) & Best Performance (16-1) keying a great Juvy Filly Turf outcome that produced big returns. Chad Brown and Bob Edwards repeated in the event (New Money Honey in ’16) and have a shot to upset Bolt d’Oro today with Good Magic.
Mendelssohn, the Beholder brother who took great advantage of the inside draw, was not on any ticket and tormented every multi-race play for me. Thoro-Graph’s Jerry Brown cleverly asserted that Lasix could be a big boost to the $3,000,000 Ballydoyle hopeful based on how he had abruptly stopped in the Champagne at Doncaster 2 back.
Battle of Midway ($30.40) ran a tremendous race to beat a hard-trying Sharp Azteca in the Dirt Mile and owner-trainer combo of Don Alberto & Jerry Hollendorfer have an obvious chance to score again with Unique Bella in the F&M Sprint.
Hope everyone got off to a good start and are prepared to attack today’s opportunities!
DEL MAR ~ BREEDERS’ CUP SATURDAY
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: 6th Goldikova (G2), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)
Kitten’s Roar a strong ‘A’ and potential single for P5 players considering difficulty degree in the 3rd-5th..
Most Likely: #7 Kitten’s Roar 5-1 WON ($8.20)
Next Best: #1 On Leave 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Hillhouse High 12-1 10th
Exotics Use: #11 Aljazzi 6-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Majestic Heat 12-1 6th
2nd: 5th Golden St. Juvenile-R, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #6 Bookies Luck 7-2 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #1 Smokem 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Lucky Romero 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Night At the Opera 3-1 5th
3rd: 5th Juvenile Turf Sprint, 2yo, 5f-T (P3, DD)
Best Value: #12 Majestic Dunhill 20-1 10th
Next Best: #10 March X Press 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Count Alexander 6-1 11th
Super Add: #5 Sound And Silence 8-1 2nd
4th: 34th Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)
Taking a page from Rick Hammerle’s ‘don’t let the post get you off the best horse’ playbook, I’ll stick with Separationofpowers. She’s the best filly here and trust Jose Ortiz to find his way to an acceptable 3-wide around the first turn from the tricky slot. Wonder Gadot (8-1), like Flameaway finally getting to turf Friday, has potential to leap forward on her proper surface. Caledonia Road (15-1) will be discounted coming from under-known Ralph Nicks, but he’s great with youngsters and she put in a strong run behind top choice in the Frizette..
Most Likely: #13 Separationofpowers 4-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Wonder Gadot 8-1 6th
Best Value: #12 Caldonia Road 15-1 WON ($36.60)
Exotics Use: #1 Heavenly Love 9-2 11th
Super Add: #8 Piedi Bianchi 15-1 5th
REVERSE TRI KEY: Was asked for example of the Reverse Tri Key concept. Idea is take the most logical exacta candidates and top them over a price play that might hang on or clunk up for third..
Example, 1-7-11-13 (Separationofpowers/Wonder Gadot/Moonshine Memories/Heavenly Love) with 1-7-11-13 with 12 (Caldonia Road): 4x3x1 = $12 or $6 for .50.
Optionally, you could use all three of #3 (12-1) Princess Warrior/#8 (15-1) Piedi Bianchi/#12 (15-1) Caledonia Road in the 3rd slot: 1-7-11-13 with 1-7-11-13 with 3-8-12: 4x3x3 = $36 or $18 for .50.
Other Reverse Tri Key candidates today:
TURF SPRINT: #3 Holding Gold (15-1); #9 Mongolian Saturday (20-1)
F&M SPRINT: #7 By the Moon (12-1); #10 Highway Star 15-1
F&M TURF: #1 War Flag 12-1
SPRINT: #1 Calculator 20-1
MILE: #4 Lancaster Bomber 20-1; #6 Zelzal 20-1; #11 Ballagh Rocks 12-1
JUVENILE: #10 Golden Dragon 30-1; #12 Hollywood Star 15-1
TURF: #10 Fanciful Angel; #7 Itsinthepost; #13 Sadler’s Joy 12-1
CLASSIC: #2 War Decree 30-1; #9 Gunnevera 30-1
5th: 10th Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1), 3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Off the pace is typically the winner’s path going 5f here. Lady Aurelia, along with Lady Eli and Unique Bella, is a horse I’d just like to see win and she can stalk and go successfully. Richard’s Boy has an upset look and will be an overlay; Marsha bested the top pick in the thrilling Nunthorpe; Pure Sensation dangerous up front..
Most Likely: #3 Lady Aurelia 5-2 10th
Best Value: #7 Richard’s Boy 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Marsha 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #12 Pure Sensation 10-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Hogy 12-1 11th
P5 Grid:
1: 1-7 (A), 6 (B), 9-11 (C)
2: 1-6 (A), – (B), 2-5 (C)
3: 10-12-13 (A), – (B), 3-5 (C)
4: 11-13 (A), – (B), 1-4-7-8-12 (C)
5: 3-7 (A), 6-12 (B), 1-2-10 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x2x3x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x3x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
P4 Grid:
2: 1-6 (A), – (B), 2-5 (C)
3: 10-12-13 (A), 3-5 (B), 1-2 (C)
4: 11-12-13 (A), – (B), 1-4-7-8-12 (C)
5: 3-7 (A), – (B), 1-2-6-10-11-12 (C)
Simple (A+B): 2x5x5x2 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A’s: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
6th: 11th Breeders’ Cup F&M Sprint (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)
From a multi-race standpoint, you may require Unique Bella as a single and she feels likely to justify that approach. But as LP3 has stressed, no 3yo has won this race, Unique Bella could get caught wide and there are no shortage of tough cookies to deal with including reformed claimer Skye Diamonds. One approach could be a backup P3 with other major candidates that leans on Separationofpowers/Lady Aurelia ahead and Lady Eli and obvious sprinters behind (See below)..
Most Likely: #11 Unique Bella 9-5 7th
Next Best: #12 Skye Diamonds 5-1 4th
Best Value: #14 Ami’s Mesa 20-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Carina Mia 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Highway Star 15-1 11th
J-Filly/T-Sprint/F&M Sprint P3 (4th-6th): 11-12-13 with 3 with 1-3-4-7-9-10-12-14 (3x1x8 = $24 or $12 for .50)
T-Sprint/F&M Sprint/F&M Turf P3 (5th-7th): 3 with All with 8-9 (1x14x2 = $28 or $14 for .50)
F&M Sprint/F&M Turf/Sprint P3 (6th-8th): 1-7-10-12-14 with 8-9 with 2-3-8-10 (5x2x4 = $40 or $20 for .50)
7th: 19th Breeders’ Cup F&M Turf (G1), F&M-3+, 9f-T (P6, P3, DD)
Lady Eli the sentimental (and capable) pick; Grand Jete overdue for some luck; Cambodia great over this course this summer; Wuheida making a positive impression coming in..
Most Likely: #9 Lady Eli 5-2 7th
Next Best: #8 Grand Jete 6-1 9th
Best Value: #6 Cambodia 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Wuheida 20-1 WON ($24.40)
Super Add: #10 Queen’s Trust 12-1 5th
8th: 34th Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)
Drefong could overwhelm this field and it will be no surprise, but that inside draw is very tricky. Imperial Hint is scary fast. American Pastime ideal as your price key in all slots. Roy H the pick coming up to another peak effort..
Most Likely: #8 Roy H 7-2 WON ($11.80)
Best Value: #3 American Pastime 12-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Drefong 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Imperial Hint 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Calculator 20-1 7th
P4 Grid:
5: 3-7 (A), 6-12 (B), 1-2-5-11 (C)
6: 11 (A), – (B), 1-7-10-12-14 (C)
7: 6-8-9 (A), 4-5-10 (B), 1-7 (C)
8: 2-3-8-10 (A), – (B), 1-5 (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x1x6x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x1x3x4 = $24 ($12 for .50)
9th: 34th Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
He won’t be a price like his brother Miesque’s Approval at Churchill in ’06, but Mrs. Weber’s homebred World Approval is going to get a perfect trip behind the speed. Ribchester an International stalwart. Bomber, Ballagh and Zelzal viable value..
Most Likely: #5 World Approval 9-2 WON ($7.40)
Next Best: #10 Ribchester 7-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Lancaster Bomber 20-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Ballagh Rocks 12-1 9th
Super Add: #6 Zelzal 20-1 6th
$2 Exacta (5-4) Paid $48.50
10th: 34th Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)
Another of the day’s major players and does look like your typical reliable Juvenile favorite. I’ll use Good Magic as a B..
Most Likely: #11 Bolt d’Oro 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #6 Good Magic 8-1 WON ($25.00)
Next Best: #2 Solomini 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Free Drop Billy 5-1 9th
Super Add: #3 Firenze Fire 6-1 7th
$1 Exacta (6-2) Paid $67.80
$1 Trifecta (6-2-11) Paid $229.40
10th: 34th Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1), 3+, 12f-T (DD)
Arc winners might not annex the BC Turf, but horses out of the Arc have won their share. Ulysses SCRATCHED has pointed for this as his seasonal target since last year’s visit as a 3yo and has campaigned at the highest level en route. Made a stunning impression Thursday bulldozing around the lawn and looks to be as imposing as any of the day’s favorites..
Most Likely: #12 Beach Patrol 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Talismanic 15-1 WON ($30.20)
Next Best: #3 Highland Reel 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #13 Sadler’s Joy 12-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Itsinthepost 15-1 7th
$1 Exacta (1-12) Paid $78.00
$1 Trifecta (1-12-3) Paid $261.80
$1 Superfecta (1-12-3-13) Paid $2,592.00
12th: 34th Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), 3+, 10f (Hi-5)
Gun Runner will be tough to beat, but you know that Baffert has done everything possible to give Arrogate his chance to repeat. West Coast must be covered. Should be a terrific end to the weekend..
Most Likely: #1 Arrogate 2-1 5th-DH
Next Best: #5 Gun Runner 9-5 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #8 West Coast 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Gunnevara 30-1 5th-DH
Super Add: #10 Pavel 20-1 10th
P6 Grid:
7: 8-9 (A), – (B), 5-6-10 (C)
8: 3-8 (A), 2-10 (B), – (C)
9: 5 (A), 10 (B), 4-11 (C)
10: 11 (A), – (B), 2-6 (C)
11: 1-12 (A), 3 (B), 7-13-14 (C)
12: 1-5-8 (A), – (B), 9-10-11 (C)
Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x1x3x3 = 144 x $2 = $288
All A’s: 2x2x1x1x2x3 = 24 x $2 = $48
$2 Pick-6 (5/8/5/6/1/5) Paid $1,381.80 (5OF6) x 2 = $2,763.20
P4 Grid:
9: 4-5-10-11 (A), 1-2 (B), 6-8 (C)
10: 11 (A), 2-6 (B), 1-3-5-10 (C)
11: 1-12 (A), 3 (B), 7-13-14 (C)
12: 1-5-8 (A), – (B), 9-10-11 (C)
Simple (A+B): 6x3x3x3 = 162 x .50 = $81
All A’s: 4x1x2x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)
$0.50 Pick-4 (5/6/1/5) Paid $1,257.15
DIS-CLS DBL:
DIS: 5-6 (A), 2-7 (B), 4-8 (C)
CLS: 1-5-8 (A), – (B), 9-10-11 (C)
Simple (A+B): 4×3 = 12 x $2 = $24
All A’s: 2×3 = 6 x $4 = $24
$1 Double (6/5) Paid $18.70 x 4 = $74.80 (All A’s); x 2 = $37.60 (Simple)
DEL MAR ~ BREEDERS’ CUP FRIDAY
POST-SCRATCHES
Once more into the breach dear friends.. The ‘Breeders’ Cup invocation’. These 2 days offer unique opportunities with chances to be rewarded for creative thinking and audacious risk-taking. Some will come away delighted and some maddeningly frustrated, but all should approach these races as the curious and challenging puzzles they’ve become. No matter how well you ‘handicap’ the races, fields this deep and mysterious will produce several nearly unforeseeable results. Remember that you could be taking an ‘0-fer’ well into Saturday and get it all back (and more) in the weekend’s waning moments. But no matter how the ledger looks when it’s over, appreciate that your ability as a horseplayer won’t be defined over the course of 2 days. Spend as freely as you can afford, get a little lucky, and here’s hoping that everyone nets something that fills their account and makes them proud.
For the 12th year in a row, it’s been a pleasure bringing the Cup to everyone listening. I hope the 15 hours here and the time leading up offered each of you something you can convert into winning tickets. Thanks to Del Mar, Breeders’ Cup, ATR sponsors, everyone who contributed so generously to the shows and most importantly, the listeners.. Let’s get lucky this weekend!
1st: 7th Damascus, 3+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)
With 2 of racing to go on, as discussed with Brad Free, get a sense the main track is playing quick and slightly inside while the turf has been it’s very typical self with mid-pack stalkers and late movers sweeping to leads..
Most Likely: #6 Mr. Hinx 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Good Bye Greg 8-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Kobe’s Back 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Loose On the Town 7-2 3rd
2nd: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #11 Ritzy A. P. 7-2 WON ($7.80)
Next Best: #9 Cheekaboomboom 5-1 6th
Best Value: #10 Lazzam 15-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Soglio 9-2 3rd
$1 Exacta (11-10) Paid $32.30
$1 Trifecta (11-10-6) Paid $178.60
3rd: OC/N1X, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #2 CITY OF LIGHT 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Prime Issue 9-2 7th
Best Value: #12 Mesa Sky 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Dabster 6-1 WON ($11.40)
4th: 5th Golden St. Juvy Fillies-R, 2yo-F, 7f (P6, P3, DD)
Best Value: #6 Pulpit Rider 6-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Show It N Moe It 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Ismelucky 5-2 4th
Super Add: #8 Spiced Perfection 5-1 2nd
5th: 10th Marathon (G2), 3+, 14f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #7 Hard Aces 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Archanova 4-1 7th
Best Value: #3 Destin 5-1 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Ground Rules 8-1 6th
P5 Grid:
1: 2-6 (A), – (B), 3-4-5-7 (C)
2: 9-11 (A), 5-6-10 (B), 2-4 (C)
3: 2 (A), – (B), 1-10-12 (C)
4: 3-4-6 (A), 1-8 (B), 7-9 (C)
5: 1-3-7 (A), – (B), 4-6 (C)
Simple (A+B): 2x5x1x5x3 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A’s: 2x2x1x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
6th: 10th Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), 2yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
It’s appeared that Brown & O’Brien would hold the key to this and that’s still the case, though Best Performance will save ground and could impact..
Most Likely: #11 Rushing Fall 7-2 WON ($8.00)
Next Best: #2 Happily 9-2 14th
Best Value: #1 Best Performance 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Significant Form 8-1 4th
Super Add: #10 September 6-1 3rd
$1 Exacta (11-1) Paid $53.70
$1 Trifecta (11-1-10) Paid $371.60
$1 Superfecta (11-1-10-8) Paid $1,878.10
P4 Grid:
3: 2 (A), 1 (B), 10-12 (C)
4: 3-4-6 (A), 1-8 (B), 7-9 (C)
5: 1-3-7 (A), – (B), 4-6 (C)
6: 1-2-11 (A), 8-10 (B), 7-13-14 (C)
Simple (A+B): 2x5x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A’s: 1x3x3x3 = 27 x .50 = $13.50
7th: 11th Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)
The day’s and perhaps the weekend’s, most confounding event. You can protect Sharp Azteca & Mor Spirit in multis (they could get into a duel) and try those that have winning races on their page and own wins over the track. Cupid has run best in fast-paced events and proved himself adept at the trip in the Brubaker win here this summer. He’s Bejarano’s lone BC mount and figures to be overlooked..
Most Likely: #7 Cupid 8-1 10th
Best Value: #1 Iron Fist 12-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Accelerate 7-2 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Battle of Midway 10-1 WON ($30.40)
Super Add: #2 Giant Expectations 12-1 6th
8th: 10th Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), 2yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)
While the juvy fillies looks approachable through the major players, the boys’ version is a bit of a dog’s breakfast. Virtually no superfecta combo will surprise, so take those that appeal to you and hope you’ve gone deep enough. Snapper Sinclair pressed a hot pace breaking his maiden when moving to lawn and then finished well in a slow paced affair at demanding KY Downs. Flameaway has been meant for turf from the start and has potential to jump forward at a big number. James Garfield, Masar & Sands of Mali are dangerous Euros on my tix and there’s nothing wrong with Beholder brother Mendelssohn or Beckford either. Chad Brown’s Voting Control is 8-1 as is progressive My Boy Jack. Catholic Boy has made a great impression on observers this week. Should be nuts..
Most Likely: #11 Snapper Sinclair 15-1 12th
Next Best: #7 James Garfield 6-1 10th
Best Value: #10 Flameaway 20-1 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Masar 9-2 6th
Super Add: #3 Sands of Mali 30-1 9th
9th: 34th Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (DIS-CLS DBL, DD, Hi-5)
This is going to be very interesting. With Champagne Room forced to go and Stellar Wind likely to use the pressure tactics that worked v. Beholder, think the pace is going to heat up and provide Forever Unbridled her ideal scenario. Abel Tasman too dangerous to exclude..
Best Value: #6 Forever Unbridled 4-1 WON ($9.40)
Next Best: #5 Elate 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Stellar Wind 5-2 8th
Super Add: #7 Paradise Woods 9-2 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #4 Abel Tasman 4-1 2nd
P4 Grid:
6: 2-11 (A), – (B), 1-8-10 (C)
7: 1-7 (A), 2-8-9 (B), 3-6-10 (C)
8: 7-10-11 (A), – (B), 3-4-6-8-13 (C)
9: 2-5-6 (A), 4-7 (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 2x5x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A’s: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
DIS-CLS DBL:
DIS: 5-6 (A), 2-7 (B), 4-8 (C)
CLS: 1-5-8 (A), – (B), 9-10-11 (C)
Simple (A+B): 4×3 = 12 x $2 = $24
All A’s: 2×3 = 6 x $4 = $24
10th: 49th Sen. Ken Maddy (G3), F&M-3+, 5f-T
Best Value: #1 So Sweetiz 6-1 10th
Next Best: #5 Vigor 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Street Surrender 8-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Long Hot Summer 9-2 5th
P4 Grid:
7: 1-7-8 (A), 3-6-9 (B), 2-10 (C)
8: 3-6-7-10-11 (A), – (B), 2-4-8-13 (C)
9: 5-6 (A), 2-4-7 (B), – (C)
10: 1 (A), – (B), 5-9-10 (C)
Simple (A+B): 6x5x5x1 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A’s: 3x5x2x1 = 30 x .50 = $15
