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If Horses Were Wishes by John Perrott
If Horses Were Wishes by John Perrott
If Horses Were Wishes by John Perrott
 

AR Derby last shot at Downs slot

KEENELAND

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 EASTPORT 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Society Beau 7-2 WON ($12.00)
Best Value: #8 Nice Not Nice 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Upper Room 6-1 2nd

RACE NOTES: Eastport (3rd) gets hammered to 4-5 and a bit of a disappointment bottled up inside much of the way, bid mildly when given length of stretch; Winner Society Beau ran every step under Albarado for gracious Neil Howard; Rosario rallied stoutly with Upper Room (2nd) at fat 12-1 boosting $75 exacta, $200 tri. Effort by Delacour trainee raise prospects for No Dozing later perhaps?

6th: ALW/N2X, 4+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Forge 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Belomor 20-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Southside Warrior 8-1 11th
Exotics Use: #7 Aquaphobia 8-1 5th

RACE NOTES: Glad this wasn’t part of the P5/P4. Tough beat with Forge who managed to find his way to lead inside only to see Zennor ($13.40) and Bravo scamper on. McLaghlin has done nice work with this gelding who is doing his best work at age 5. His maturation has paralleled that of Dickinson who faces Lady Eli soon..

7th: 87th Ben Ali (G3), 4+, 9f (P5, P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Bird Song 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Scuba 5-1 6th
Best Value: #2 Eagle 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Watershed 7-2 WON ($12.20)

RACES NOTES: Godolphin DBL as Watershed earns graded stake stripe wearing down Bird Song. After being mistakenly sent to Meydan to start 4yo season, appears poised to fulfill expectations. Wilkes wanted to stretch Bird Song out but this should be enough to force resumption of his one turn mile career..

8th: 21st Giant’s Causeway, F&M-3+,

Most Likely: #10 Pretty Perfection 5-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Lady Aurelia 6-5 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #2 Triple Chelsea 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Lajatico 15-1 11th

RACE NOTES: Wow.. Lady Aurelia comes back like a champ v. group of hard-hitting turf sprinters. Off to Royal Ascot! Triple Chelsea had her run cut off on the rail. Keep tabs on her..

9th: 36th Lexington (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Souper Tapit 10-1 7th
Next Best: #4 No Dozing 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 West Coast 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Resilliency 6-1 10th

RACE NOTES: Replay in order for this mayhem event which included Souper Tapit clanging off the rail and No Dozing going into the first turn and a seemingly premature move by Prat on West Coast. Channing Hill nails the tiring leader on $24 Senior Investment and the 6-horse wide spread in P5 and late P4 stands to pay off with some luck..

10th: 29th Jenny Wiley (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Lady Eli 1-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Time and Motion 4-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Quidura 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Dickinson 8-1 WON ($14.40)

P4 Grid:

7: 2-3-4-6 (A), 1-5-7-8 (B), – (C)
8: 7-10 (A), 2-11 (B), 4-5 (C)
9: 2-4-10 (A), – (B), 1-3-5-6 (C)
10: 1 (A), – (B), 4-5-6-7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 8x4x3x1 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 4x2x3x1 = $24 ($12 for .50)

11th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6.5f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Sheplaysthefield 4-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #9 Miss Vicki 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Makealittlelove 7-2 10th
Exotics Use: #8 Vigor 4-1 3rd
Super/Hi-5: 11 Distortress 6-1 6th

P5 Grid:

7: 4-6 (A), 2-3 (B), 7-8 (C)
8: 2-7-10 (A), – (B), 4-5-11 (C)
9: 2-4-10 (A), 1-3-5 (B), 6 (C)
10: 1-6 (A), – (B), 4-5-7-8 (C)
11: 1 (A), – (B), 4-8-9-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x6x2x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-5 (3/6,7,13,14/3/4/1) Paid $23.80 (4OF5) x 2 = $47.60

P4 Grid:

8: 2-7-10 (A), – (B), 4-5-11 (C)
9: 2-4-10 (A), 1-3-5 (B), – (C)
10: 1-6 (A), – (B), 4-5-7-8 (C)
11: 1-9 (A), 4-8 (B), 6-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

OAKLAWN ~ CLOSING DAY

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f (P3)

Crazily competitive MDN group. Asmussen favorite Off Road (3-1) has run into tigers in all 3 career starts and may get over here, but his other runner, OK-bred Curmit (6-1), catches my eye wheeling back in 2 weeks after excellent 3yo debut when 3rd to Friday starter winner Hot Item. Castellano gets hard luck Zip Van Winkle. Arch Cat can win with better gate deportment. Pitch Count (12-1) has half dozen efforts good enough for diploma..

Best Value: #11 Curmit 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Off Road 3-1 11th
Exotics Use: #3 Zip Van Winkle 4-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Arch Cat 5-1 4th

RACES NOTES: As suggested, jumbled MDN group sets off fireworks with $20 Hot Shot Kid keying $511 exacta, $2,745 tri and $13,725 super! Curmit (9-1) ran well but had too much to do and some traffic to weave through..

7th: 44th Count Fleet H. (G3), 3+, 6f (P4, P3)

Remade as sprinter, Whitmore the clear horse to beat, but Sadler got off the shipper schneid Friday with Stellar Wind and has authentic California speed candidate Moe Candy to offer here. Cox adds Castellano to Wabel who may be ready for stakes company now as a mature horse and gets 9# from the favorite. Holy Boss seems unlikely to recapture the extended form he enjoyed as 3-4yo..

Most Likely: #8 Whitmore 4-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #2 Wabel 12-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Moe Candy 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Holy Boss 5-1 3rd

RACE NOTES: Whitmore continues his ascent in the sprint division as the MGSP gelding gains elusive graded stake win swamping Count Fleet. Challenges never materialized..

8th: 20th Northern Spur, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3)

Tyler Baze does ride 3 for Van Berg earlier, but it appears he bypassed Saturday at Santa Anita for Cistron. Total Tap should get a nice pace to run in to. Won’t be 6-1 though..

Best Value: #7 Total Tap 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Cistron 2-1 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Warrior’s Club 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Jerrid 8-1 5th

RACE NOTES: Sadler shipping issues evaporate in 24 hours as he’s now 2 for his last 3 away from So. California. Baze kept Cistron to task. Thrill ride continues for Churchill Downs Racing Club as Warrior’s Club adds more black type. Total Tap moved late but the top pair weren’t coming back to him..

9th: 71st Oaklawn H. (G2), 4+, 9f (P4, P3)

Yes, Madefromlucky & Domain’s Rap are competitive on paper with Midnight Storm, but D’ Amato invader shortens up from game Big Cap try (caught by Shaman Ghost) and looks to be on a loose lead. Note that MGSW Texas Chrome makes his 4yo debut here for JR Caldwell, a scenario that could see him invade exotics at a nice number..

Most Likely: #3 Midnight Storm 1-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Madefromlucky 4-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Texas Chrome 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Domain’s Rap 8-1 2nd

10th: S/ALW, 3+, 6f (P3)

Most Likely: #6 Purrfectpersuasion 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Twenty and Four 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Long Station 9-2 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #10 Chilango 12-1 7th

P4 Grid:

7: 2-3-8 (A), – (B), 1-4-6 (C)
8: 1-7 (A), 3 (B), 4-5-6 (C)
9: 3 (A), 1-4 (B), 2-5 (C)
10: 4-6-7 (A), 8-10 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x3x5 = 135 x .50 = $67.50
All A’s: 3x2x1x3 = $18 ($9 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (8/1/5/7) Paid $500.90 (A-A-C-A)

11th: 81st Arkansas Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Final call for Kentucky Derby hopefuls and there are a lot of desperate players involved with only Malagacy assured a slot at Churchill. Untrapped and Classic Empire are #20/#21 and while they could get in without cashing checks today, recording superfecta finishes would be much more encouraging. Everyone else needs trifecta finishes or better and Silver Dust is the horse that has the best opportunity to price ratio. He’ll come down from 20-1, but the Tapit colt should still be square and looks like the typical mental/physical improver his sire is famous for. Corey Lanerie will find the rail open when Classic Empire and Rockin Rudy light out off the bell and Silver Dust should enjoy a ground-saving trip behind the speed. I thought Malagacy was very game stretching out to 8.5f in the Rebel off just two sprint starts and think he can follow that up with another plus effort here. If Classic Empire is fit enough and returns to his best race, he’s too good for these..

Best Value: #3 Silver Dust 20-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Classic Empire 8-5 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #12 Malagacy 2-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Untrapped 6-1 6th

12th: S/ALW, 4+, 14f

This nutty mile and three-quarters event has wrapped up OP meet in most recent years (1m in ’15) and favorites have generally dominated..

Most Likely: #5 Far Out Kailee 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Indy Awesome 8-1 WON ($15.60)
Next Best: #7 Sky Alert 6-1
Exotics Use: #1 Mojo Street 3-1 3rd

P5 Grid:

8: 1-7 (A), – (B), 3-4-5-6 (C)
9: 3 (A), – (B), 1-2-4-5 (C)
10: 4-6-7 (A), 8-10 (B), – (C)
11: 2-3-9-12 (A), – (B), 1-4-11 (C)
12: 5-6 (A), 7 (B), 1-8-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x1x5x4x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 2x1x3x4x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

$0.50 Pick-5 (1/5/7/2/6) Paid $9,445.15 (A-C-A-A-A)

P4 Grid:

9: 3 (A), – (B), 1-2-4-5 (C)
10: 4-6-7 (A), 8-10 (B), – (C)
11: 2-3-9-12 (A), – (B), 1-4-11 (C)
12: 5-6 (A), 1-7 (B), 8-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x4x4 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A’s: 1x3x4x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (5/7/2/6) Paid $2,131.80 (C-A-A-A)

If Horses Were Wishes by John Perrott
If Horses Were Wishes by John Perrott
If Horses Were Wishes by John Perrott