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If Horses Were Wishes by John Perrott
If Horses Were Wishes by John Perrott
If Horses Were Wishes by John Perrott
 

Crunch time with Wood, Blue Grass, SA Derby

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: 57th Bay Shore (G3), 3yo, 7f (NYRA Bets P4, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Long Haul Bay 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #2 Even Thunder 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Miggsy 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Theory 7-5 4th

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

$25k P6 C/O starts here..

Fleet Irish (15-1) broke his MDN on AQU main debuting at this demanding trip. Gelded since last, gets first Lasix (a Weaver wammy) and turns back to 7/8ths. Pace undefined on paper but gaggle of pressing 3/4 types should prompt enough to give Franco the set up he’ll need..

Best Value: #4 Fleet Irish 15-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Royal Ekati 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #10 Benevolence 10-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Bourbon Empire 5-1 3rd

8th: 105th Excelsior (G3), 4+, 10f (Must-Pay P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Doyouknowsomething 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Send It In 2-1 WON ($4.10)
Exotics Use: #4 Hereditary 3-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Tu Brutus 4-1 2nd

9th: 117th Carter H. (G1), 4+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Unified 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 Tommy Macho 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Ocean Knight 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Awesome Banner 8-1 9th

Special ~ NYRA Bets P6 Grid:

6: 2-4 (A), 1-5 (B), 3-6 (C)
7: 4-8-10 (A), 2-3-6 (B), 5-7 (C)
8: 2-7 (A), – (B), 1-4-5 (C)
9: 2-8-9 (A), – (B), 4-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x2x3 = $36 ($18 for .50)

10th: 93rd Wood Memorial (G2), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Cloud Computing’s Gotham the best non-winning effort by a Classic Trail runner so far and circumstances appear right for next level success here. Pletcher juggernaut gets another opportunity with Battalion Runner and he’s been handled with an aura that indicates he won’t fail to capitalize. Stretch’s Stone a late TC nominee for lovable connections and repeat of last 2 makes him an exotics contender (at the least) here. Would be thrilled to see Irish War Cry right the ship after beyond belief bad Fountain effort, but if he can only succeed on the lead, it’s hard to see how he makes a significant impacts today. Note that True Timber is the first of 3 Calumet Farm prep players performing today with Wild Shot (Blue Grass) and Term of Art (Santa Anita Derby) to follow. Already with Hence and Patch set for Kentucky, Sonneteer can add to the amazing storyline next week at Oaklawn as well..

Most Likely: #7 Cloud Computing 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Battalion Runner 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Stretch’s Stone 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Irish War Cry 7-2 WON ($9.00)

11th: 117th Gazelle (G2), 3yo-F, 9f (DD)

Miss Sky Warrior (and Yorkiepoo Princess for that matter) showed rating ability in most recent wins and that versatility should come in handy here with plenty of pacey types signed on. Brown and Mott fillies will take plenty of money which could get Miss Sky Warrior’s number into the acceptable (5-2?) level..

Most Likely: #5 Miss Sky Warrior 9-5 WON ($5.30)
Best Value: #1 Yorkiepoo Princess 6-1 8th
Next Best: #8 North End 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Lockdown 5-1 2nd

12th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6.5f

Most Likely: #1a Super Luke 2-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Carthon 12-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Build to Suit 3-1 2nd-DQ’d from WIN
Exotics Use: #8 Pirate’s Treasure 8-1 3rd

P6 Grid:

7: 4-8-10
8: 2-7
9: 8
10: 3-7
11: 1-4-5-8
12: 1-3-9

Simple: 3x2x1x2x4x3 = 144 x $2 = $288

P5 Grid:

8: 2-7 (A), – (B), 1-4-5 (C)
9: 2-8 (A), 9 (B), 4-5 (C)
10: 3-7 (A), – (B), 2-6-8 (C)
11: 1-4-5-8 (A), – (B), 2-9 (C)
12: 1-9 (A), 3-8 (B), 2-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x4x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A’s: 2x2x2x4x2 = 64 x .50 = $32

P4 Grid:

9: 2-8-9 (A), – (B), 4-5 (C)
10: 3-7 (A), – (B), 2-6-8 (C)
11: 1-4-5-8 (A), 2-9 (B), – (C)
12: 1-9 (A), 3-8 (B), 2-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x4x2 = $48 ($24 for .50)

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: 31st Commonwealth (G3), 4+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

This is a terrific betting opportunity top 3 ML faves all having various questions. A.P. Indian is now a 7yo and doesn’t have to fire first off the break. Defending Ami’s Flatter hasn’t won since this event last year and typically regresses 2nd off a break. Limousine Liberal trains/runs well on his home track but hasn’t excelled at 7f. Meanwhile, Yockey’s Warrior (8-1) is in the midst of a mature horse emergence. Redesdale (15-1) is 3 for 3 and may be this good. Awesome Slew (6-1) has been refashioned to the one turn middle distance runner he was meant to be. Tale of S’avail should get inside/out trip under emerging Gaffalione. Have at it buckaroos..

Most Likely: #9 Awesome Slew 6-1 WON ($8.20)
Next Best: #4 Yockey’s Warrior 8-1 8th
Best Value: #5 Redesdale 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Tale of S’avail 12-1 7th

7th: 21st Shakertown (G2), 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Rainbow Heir 3-1 7th
Best Value: #4 Justin Squared 12-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Hogy 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Green Mask 4-1 2nd

8th: 16th Madison (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Paulassilverlining 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #1 Paid Up Subscriber 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Clothes Fall Off 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #4 Constellation 4-1 2nd

9th: 80th Ashland (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

As discussed with Marty McGee, Sailor’s Valentine looks like Girvin did coming in to the Risen Star. Who’s so scary in here?

Best Value: #7 Sailor’s Valentine 12-1 WON ($46.40)
Next Best: #3 Pretty City Dancer 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Elate 7-2 DNF
Super Add: #6 Daddy’s Little Darling 5-2 2nd

10th: 93rd Blue Grass (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD)

The wagering maxim says to bet against McCraken at the short price, but if you’ve been waiting for a major performance from one of these 3yo’s, why deny that it likely comes from him here? Having lost the Tampa Bay Derby prep opportunity, Wilkes has tightened screws on McCraken for series of starts ahead and blitzing move in Sam Davis plays well in this spot which has uncertain pace. So many people are playing against him that perhaps his price floats up to 2-1..

Most Likely: #2 McCraken 7-5 3rd
Next Best: #4 Tapwrit 5-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Wild Shot 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Practical Joke 7-2 2nd

P5 Grid:

6: 1-4-5-9 (A), 3-7-8 (B), 2 (C)
7: 2-4 (A), 3-7 (B), – (C)
8: 6 (A), – (B), 1-2 (C)
9: 2-3-7 (A), – (B), 5-6-8 (C)
10: 2-4 (A), – (B), 3-5-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 7x4x1x3x2 = 168 x .50 = $84
All A’s: 4x2x1x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

P4 Grid:

7: 2-4-7 (A), 3-8 (B), 1-6 (C)
8: 6 (A), – (B), 1-2-4-5 (C)
9: 2-3-7 (A), – (B), 5-6-8 (C)
10: 2-4 (A), 3-5-7 (B), 1-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x3x5 = $75 ($37.50 for .50)
All A’s: 3x1x3x2 = $18 ($9 for .50)

11th: MSW, 3yo-F, 9f-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Lido 3-1 ($4.20)
Best Value: #5 Mercy Ann 12-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Asticou Trail 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Boule 12-1 5th
Super/Hi-5: #12 Stealing Holly 8-1 7th

P4 Grid:

8: 6 (A), – (B), 1-2-4-5 (C)
9: 2-3-7 (A), – (B), 5-6-8 (C)
10: 2-4 (A), 3-5-7 (B), 1-6 (C)
11: 2-4-5 (A), 11-12 (B), 8-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x5x5 = $75 ($36.50 for .50)
All A’s: 1x3x2x3 = $18 ($9 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (6/7/6/2,9,13,14,15,16) Paid $3,880.00 (A-A-C-A)

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: 80th Santa Anita Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Entertaining cast of desperadoes line up here and it seems like you have to play for a price (or three). Though Reach the World, American Anthem and Irish Freedom all have various questions, do you really believe that Baffert will get shut out on the Derby Trail? Reach the World appears like the player that has the most upside and series of 4 drills since the narrow ALW loss have increasingly sparkled. (See them and much more on xbtv: http://www.xbtv.com/video-on-demand/workouts/). Term of Art is an old school grinder that will be running on late. American Anthem, like Irish War Cry in the Fountain, was too bad to be believed in the Rebel. Battle of Midway beat Reach the World on the square a month ago. Irish Freedom humiliated West Coast in their tandem drill to earn this opportunity..

Most Likely: #2 REACH THE WORLD 5-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Term of Art 12-1 7th
Next Best: #6 American Anthem 5-1 12th
Exotics Use: #3 Battle of Midway 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Irish Freedom 20-1 8th

9th: 37th Providencia (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD)

SCR #2 Union Strike..

Most Likely: #1 Sircat Sally 1-1 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #8 Emphatically 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Beau Recall SCR
Exotics Use: #5 Princess Roi 5-1 4th

10th: 6th Echo Eddie-R, 3yo, 6.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #8 California Diamond 5-2
Best Value: #6 Green With Eddie 6-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Elwood J 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Mr. Hinx 6-1 WON ($19.00)

11th: MCLM/$75k, 3+, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Calle Kingpin 7-2 WON ($7.80)
Best Value: #2 Odyssey Explorer 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Go Ghetto 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 I’m Living Proof 12-1 5th
Super Add: #5 South Americain 6-1 11th

P4 Grid:

8: 2 (A), – (B), 1-3-6 (C)
9: 1-8 (A), 4-5 (B), – (C)
10: 6-8 (A), 4-9 (B), 1-2 (C)
11: 2-3-4-9 (A), 5-6 (B), 7-8-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x4x6 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 1x2x2x4 = $16 ($8 for .50)

If Horses Were Wishes by John Perrott
If Horses Were Wishes by John Perrott
If Horses Were Wishes by John Perrott