Talk often on ATR & Night School about recognizing momentum shifts and warning bells went off Wednesday and Thursday during strikes at the Belmont and Santa Anita P6 carryovers. Lost several photos and took more than a couple agonizing beats in final strides that dismantled most multi-race plays. On the plus side, finding horses like Forward Thinker, 11-1 beaten a half by Jonrah in the BEL 7th Wednesday, pays off long term. But I can sense a rough patch and will be a little cautious with the bankroll with big weekends and the whole summer season looming..
BELMONT PARK
POST-SCRATCHES
7th: S/ALW, 3+, 9f-IT (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #9 Captain Moss 2-1 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #1 Yowl 5-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Verger 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Lotta Gold 20-1 4th
8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 Realm 6-5 4th
Best Value: #7 Mister Monolo 15-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Caderyn 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Conviction 6-1 2nd
9th: 60th Bed O’ Roses (G3), F&M-4+, 7f (DD)
Most Likely: #1 By the Moon 6-1 WON ($6.40)
Next Best: #2 Wavell Avenue 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Pangburn 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Bar of Gold 4-1 3rd
10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 7f-T
Most Likely: #5 The Undersheriff 3-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Majority 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #12 Southern Union 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Colonel Andy 20-1 6th
P4 Grid:
7: 9 (A), 1-4 (B), 3 (C)
8: 4-7 (A), 3-5 (B), 6 (C)
9: 1-2 (A), – (B), 3-4-6 (C)
10: 5-7 (A), 1-3-8-12 (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
SANTA ANITA
POST-SCRATCHES
4th: MSW, 2yo, 5f (P6, P3, DD)
More serious juveniles are starting to emerge as we approach Del Mar and Saratoga and this looks like a group that will need to be followed with O’Neill, Glatt, Baffert, Miller and Hollendorfer taking the wrappers off Dangerfield, Law Abiding Citizen, Klimt, Chasing Aces and Silver Assault respectively..
Best Value: #2 Dangerfield 6-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Law Abidin Citizen 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Silver Assault 5-2 WON ($9.40)
Super Add: #6 Klimt 3-1 4th
5th: OC/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 Jazzy Times 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #8 Who’s Out 3-1 WON ($16.00)
Best Value: #4 Westbrook 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Forest Blue 4-1 3rd
6th: CA-OC/N1X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #7 Taman Guard 9-5 WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #8 Family Code 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Devils Informer 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Hye I’m Jack 4-1 3rd
7th: MSW, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)
Westfest is the first foal out of Joan Scott’s G1 Madison winning Dr. Zic (!) and may be another late-developing type for Baffert who advanced Juddmonte’s high upside Arrogate through allowance condition Friday..
Most Likely: #2 Westfest 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #7 Giant Expectations 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #8 Hollywood Strike 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Tiz No Bluff 6-1 6th
8th: 65th Triple Bend (G1), 3+, 7f (DD)
Subtle Indian being billed as major wire threat, but Lord Nelson sure to be involved and Coastline adds hood for D’amato and should press from outside. Ambitious Brew, another who can prompt pace, gets Desormeaux and he and Marty Jones have won 3 of last 7 together at $18 each. Feel like an unexpectedly solid pace rewards Eurton’s careful handling of Kobe’s Back with his elusive G1..
Most Likely: #2 Kobe’s Back 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Lord Nelson 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #5 Ambitious Brew 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Subtle Indian 3-1 2nd
9th: 77th Gold Cup (G1), 3+, 10f (Super Hi-5)
Another pace questionable event, but this looks more certain to lack lick with just Lieutenant Colonel and Melatonin out front. Gelded in January, Hollendorfer has moved Lieutenant Colonel up steadily since his 3yo season with Chad Brown and perhaps 10f has exactly the right timing for him. Not likely winner, but possible to take them deep into stretch. Melatonin gets first run..
Most Likely: #7 Melatonin 7-2 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #8 Imperative 6-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Hoppertunity 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Hard Aces 6-1 3rd
P4 Grid:
6: 7-8 (A), 4 (B), 1-5-6 (C)
7: 2-7 (A), 8 (B), 5 (C)
8: 2 (A), – (B), 4-5-6-7-8 (C)
9: 7-8 (A), 2-3-4-6 (B), 1-5 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x3x1x6 = $54 ($28 for .50)
$1 Pick-4 (7/2/4/7) Paid $100.10 ($50.05 for .50) (A-A-C-A)
